It's the job approval rating, stupid!

[TexasSissy]

(No, I'm not calling you guys stupid. That's just a takeoff on "It's the economy, stupid!")

There has been much talk about the national polls. They're important, for sure. But remember that they just give a ballpark of the popular vote of the nation. That's all. In THIS election what's important is WHAT STATES those votes will be in. This is a contest in only about 17 or 18 battleground states!

So let's say Bush convinced more people in Texas to vote for him? His numbers in the national polls would go up, but that doesn't help him win. Texas was already his. What matters if Bush convinced more people in a battleground state to vote for him.

SO LOOK AT THE BATTLEGROUND STATE POLLS and that all-important number for an incumbent: THE JOB APPROVAL RATING!

If * does not get over 50% in the battleground states, and stays under 50% in his job approval rating (I take all the recent polls and average them out to get the true job approval rating), then HE WILL LOSE! (As a final note: if you can find polls of undecideds in battleground states, those are CRITICAL.)

[madmax]

1. Check out this LA Times article

THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
Polls Put Bush on the Edge
The president leads most surveys, but hovering at 50% leaves him little room for error.
By Ronald Brownstein Times Staff Writer
October 18, 2004

WASHINGTON — While most of America is watching the spread in the polls between President Bush and Sen. John F. Kerry, key strategists in both parties have their eyes on a different set of numbers: Bush's share of the vote and his job approval in the final surveys before election day.

Analysts watch the incumbent's numbers in the polls so closely because most voters who stay undecided until the very end of a presidential campaign traditionally break for the challenger. As a result, challengers often run ahead of their final poll results, while incumbents rarely exceed their last poll numbers.

"We know from the history of presidential elections that when a president is polling below 50% going into the election, he usually loses," said Alan I. Abramowitz, an Emory University political scientist. "That is true of incumbent office holders in general. The incumbent usually ends up getting the percentage that he is getting in the final polls — that's it."

By that standard, the race today is teetering right on the knife's edge, though perhaps tilting slightly toward Bush after he regained the lead in five separate national polls released over the weekend. More importantly, for the first time since the debates, Bush in three of the latest surveys cracked the 50% level in support — the best news GOP strategists have seen in weeks. more:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-fifty18oct18,1,6516901.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[delete_bush]

2. Watching Lawrence O'Donnell right now

on Olberman, he's saying the same thing, in fact mentioned the LAT article. Said that Chimpy will not get any more votes than his approval rating.

[naufragus]

3. zogby has had it at about 47 all year

[DemFromMem]

4. Absolutely!

Historically, the final vote tally for an incumbent tracks extremely closely to the final approval number. Bush has absolutely go to get that number up if he is going to win.