Gallup Poll: Jan 11-12 results- Democratic Primary and General

[Printer70]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr040113.asp

POLL ANALYSES
January 13, 2004

Nationally: Two-Candidate Race for Democratic Nomination?
President Bush leads major Democratic candidates by 12 to 15 points

by David W. Moore
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- In less than a week, the voters in Iowa will have indicated their preferences for the Democratic Party's nominee for president, setting the stage for a substantial realignment in the rank order of candidates among Democratic voters nationally.

Polls in Iowa show that former Vermont Governor Gov. Howard Dean and Missouri Congressman Rep. Richard Gephardt are in a competitive race for first, while Massachusetts Senator Sen. John Kerry and North Carolina Senator Sen. John Edwards are hoping to produce a strong showing.

Nationally, the picture looks quite different. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds that the contest for the Democratic nomination right now is becoming more of a two-man race between Dean and retired General Wesley Clark -- who declined to run in the Iowa cCaucuses, citing his late entry into the presidential contest.

The poll shows Dean receiving 26% of the vote among registered Democrats nationally, closely followed by Dean Clark with 20%. No other candidate reaches double-digits.

...

General Election

At this point in the race, it does not appear that any of none of the major Democratic candidates does does better in a hypothetical match-up with Bush than any of the others. Bush leads each of four Democrats by essentially the same 12- to 15- percentage- point margin.

<b>While some political observers, as well as Democratic candidates, have suggested that Dean is less electable than other Democrats, the poll provides no corroborating evidence. At this point of the campaign, each of the major candidates appears about as strong as the other.one candidate appears about the same as the other.
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So much for the "electability" myth that Clark stacks up so much better than Dean. Well within the margin of error.

[Sean Reynolds]

1. Good to see that Dean went UP in this poll!

Plus 2, while Clark stayed at 20. Knock on wood, but it looks like Dean survived the attacks of last week! :)

[moedred]

2. Hey, I like that guy.

"Dean Clark with 20%"

...so which one's the veep?

[mouse7]

3. Dean +2 Kerry -2

All Dems over 40% vs. Bush. Good news.

[kovasb]

4. Its amazing how devistating one piece of evidence is

I love it how people like to take a single poll or quote and show how it 'devistates' some widely held perception of the candidate.

Reality check: Lots more people have heard of dean vs. clark.

Furthermore, since Clark has been getting lots of press in the last week or two, his numbers has virtually doubled nationally, from 10 to about 20%.

Furthermore. Clarks favorable/unfavorable is vastly better than dean.

Furthermore, did you completely not see the poll that showed clark doing better than dean in the red states? If not, here it is with analysis:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/12/174611/739

Look, we understand that dean people are getting frustrated with the media coverage, and the deafining noise of their balloon fantasy being deflated - that in fact Dean was not coronated by Gore's endoresment as all dean lovers thought. But these attacks are getting pathetic. How about starting a postive pro-dean thread next time?

[Printer70]

5. Dean media coverage

>Reality check: Lots more people have heard of dean vs. clark.

Has been brutal. Most people know about Dean through the constant barrage of attacks he's been the brunt of. This is no aid. In contrast, Clark has gottent the kid glove treatment and should be far outpolling Dean. The media will toughen up on him in the general, and he'll be revealed as the poll-tested, empty suit that he is. It will be ugly and a reminder not to run someone for the highest office in the land who's held no political experience.

[kovasb]

8. Lets back up a bit

The turning point for dean was his "we are no safer with the capture of saddam' comment. And for the last two weeks its been pretty repulsive how bad its been.

But around the gore endoresment, there were some solid weeks of 'dean has the nomination wrapped up', quickly followed by dean's huge breakaway from the pack, leaving everyone in the dust in iowa, nh and nationally.

So its a complete FALSEHOOD to say people only know him because of the attacks. He was in the limelight for a while.

As for Clark, it is a FALSEHOOD to say his been getting kid-gloved. When he entered the race he was dimissed as a non-candidate by the pundits, and everyone just loved repeating the shelton smear and the resolution faisco.

And its a smear to call him a poll-tested, empty suit. I wish i had the link handy, but the DLC was furious with him about his cnn performance - that he was criticizing the war too harshly, etc. He is his own man, not a tool in the vast conspiricy against you and your candidate.

[Printer70]

10. Clark has had an easy ride

Dean, the frontrunner, has attracted all the mud that's being slung. Should he make it to the general, all the attacks on Dean will be old news. And yours is an assumption that the turning point was the "we are no safer" comment. Instead the barrage of negative attacks from reports of campaign mischief to the recent race-laden allegations have made headlines.

[kovasb]

11. 'is having' not 'has had'

Clearly Clark is on a positive wave right now. And its possible the wave will turn against him, and Dean will be in the shadows. Its not like there isnt bad press coming out - the NYT article about al queda connections is getting some play.

The fact of the matter is , Clark hasnt said anything controversial lately, and the obvious stuff from the past has already been hashed out.

Dean on the other hand has iraq comments, clinton bashing, DNC-chairman bashing, the sharpton incident which he did not handle at all gracefully . Its not true that a lot of the attacks are his own doing. He could have appointed at least 1 minority to his cabinet in 5 terms :)

My point about the turning point is that with that remark, i have noticed a steadily increasing criticism. I think that remark embolded people to step up their criticism. I dont think this is controversial.

[Leilani]

6. It's too early for GE polls

We are political junkies, but most people don't know anything about Clark or Dean.

[donotpassgo]

7. Bush lead Gore by 17% 4 years ago...DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN

http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/01/07/cnn.poll/index.html

[Dogmudgeon]

9. Why complain?

Dean and Clark are two excellent candidates.

Right now, I'm about 51/49 in favor of Clark, but that changes daily.

Either of the two men would make a formidable opponant to Bush.

The fact is that we have nine candidates to take Bush to task each from a different point of view. That should be an advantage.

In a month or two, it will all shake out. At that point, we can worry about overcoming the fix that Team Bush has in for the election.

--bkl

[Adjoran]

12. What makes this race interesting

is that you can't win the nomination with 26% of the delegates. So, while Dean is clearly leading, it is quite optimistic to call the race for him.

Taking out a few of the bottom candidates won't make a majority, either. Dean's tactical advantage at this point is money. It's not that he has so much (remember Phil Gramm's $20 million in the bank before Iowa in 1996), but that his opponents have trouble raising enough because people are hesitant to bet against the frontrunner. But a lot can happen. Still a week to Iowa!

I agree that GE polls at this point are meaningless. Late September will be the first real clue as to how it is going, when more people have tuned in.

[Melodybe]

13. I disagree what makes this race interesting is that it is not politics as

usual. Politics have failed us, politicans sold us out the highest bidder a long time ago and now for this first time Americans are sick of being peons. We are standing up and saying that we deserve better. Hell the whole world deserves better. France, Briton, Germany, China, Russia, South America, the whole world is sick of cooperations doing whatever they want and running over us in the process. This election is difference b/c the power is about to shift. A new time in history is beginning and this is the beginning of their end.

Thank fucking god!