What will the sleeper states be in the 2004 election?

[dolstein]

In 2000, pundits were SHOCKED that Gore lost West Virginia and Tennesse. (Of course, they shouldn't have been -- anyone with access to Gore's internal polls would have seen this coming.)

So what will the big surprises be in 2004?

Name the one state most people assume Bush will carry that you think could wind up going for Kerry.

Also, name the one state that most people assume Kerry will carry that you think could wind up going for Kerry.

Here are my guesses --

Surprise Bush state: Delaware

Surprise Kerry state: Missouri

[coloradodem2005]

1. Hi. I'm in Delaware.

I hope Bush does not get Delaware. Not that it amounts to much.

[JohnnyCougar]

2. Deleware to Bush?

:wow: If that happens, I will give out my phone number to all the freepers in a statement saying "Communism Rules."

I have a feeling Virginia will go Kerry. As for Bush, I don't see him picking up any surprises.

[dolstein]

4. Prior to 2000, Delaware tracked the national vote very closely

In 2000, Gore won Delaware comfortably. I haven't seen any polls from Delaware and nobody seems to be paying much attention to the state, so I figured, what the heck?

[JohnnyCougar]

21. they have some polls...

Kerry is up by 20.

[ButterflyBlood]

31. American Reseach Group polled all 50 states about a month ago

Kerry was up 9

[liberalpragmatist]

3. I don't think there will be a "stealth" Bush state

He may well win Wisconsin or Iowa or maybe New Mexico - but those wouldn't be shockers - he's been leading or slightly behind in most of them for awhile now.

Sleeper state for Kerry: Virginia

Actually, I'm going to pick a couple more potential sleepers: NC, and Arizona

[KellyW]

5. Maryland !

Will be the big surprise. If Bush wins there, remeber my words.
State-wide Diebold DRE voting.

[goodwalt]

19. Crack Kills!

For God's sake, seek treatment. I just got through defending Minnesota as unassailable. Maryland? Friggin Maryland! Why not California? PUT the PIPE DOWN!

[requiem99]

41. You need to wake up. Diebold makes any state a 'swing state'.

[I Lean Left]

6. Let's go for maximum shock value

Surprise Bush state: Minnesota

Surprise Kerry state: Virginia


Shocked would not begin to describe the election night coverage if these happened.

[goodwalt]

15. No friggin way

Minnesota- land of Prince, Mondale, Humphrey and my genius college sweetheart goes Repug when hell freezes over. Put the pipe down and rejoin the party.

[I Lean Left]

20. You forgot Wellstone and Franken!

Of course, there is also Coleman and Ventura.

Point is, based on history, Minnesota shouldn't be polling as close as it is. How could the state that voted for Mondale over Reagan vote for Bush? If Minnesota went for Bush they would talk about it forever.

[hinachan]

24. Sadly, MN could turn red

Haven't you been paying attention to the polls? MN is now a battleground state, sad but true. :(

[SaveElmer]

50. True But...

Kerry has been polling fairly well in Minnesota and Bush appears to have hit a ceiling there. I would think Wisconsin would be a better bet for Bush.

[pinto]

7. Colorado may be in play....for Kerry.

:thumbsup:

[Tweed]

8. Virginia for Kerry; Minnesota for Bush

I don't think either will happen, but hey, that's the point of this thread.

[blackcat77]

9. I'll cross my fingers and say........

West Virginia.

I still think 2000 was a freak. They've been Democratic forever and all they need to do is look at what Bush has done to them and they should vote Kerry in a landslide.

But I'll take whatever margin they give us.

[goodwalt]

10. Virgina!

Hear me now, and believe me latter- Old Virginia is going blue in the electoral landslide!

[Eurobabe]

40. let's hope so, i am seeing tons of Kerry/Edwards

signs and the base is HIGHLY motivated in central VA.

[SaveElmer]

49. My upset special..Virginia to Kerry, Wisconsin to Bush

I hope I am wrong about Wisconsin though!

[cire4]

11. Colorado and Virginia will be alot closer than ppl expect

No matter what the outcome this year, they will be sure swing states in 2008.

[pinto]

16. Colorado is a key to broad East/West Democratic coalition.

The Kerry campaign sees that, I think, as does the party as a whole.

[Lakerstan]

33. I agree - look at this:

I posted this in another message, but is relevant to your point. I got this e-mail from the campaign today:

Last Friday, I told you about an important strategy meeting taking place over the weekend. Now I want to report back about how that meeting went and how your efforts made all the difference.

Towards the end of every presidential campaign, strategists like me crowd into small conference rooms and huddle around spreadsheets with polling data and financial reports. We argue about the best course of action in key battleground states and then we argue with the finance guy about if we can afford it. These meetings usually involve a series of tough decisions guided as much by cash shortages as they are by strategy.

The meeting we had this weekend was different. Time and time again when we decided on the best strategy to win a state and turned to the finance guy his answer was "go for it." It was "go for it" because of the contributions you made just last week.

You deserve some specifics: At one point during the meeting, talk turned to Colorado. Many pundits thought this state was in the win column for George Bush. But polls show this is not the case -- we can win Colorado. We decided that we should be aggressive here and once again the answer was "go for it." On the night of November 2, when Colorado is called for John Kerry, know it was because of you.

I just wanted to say "thank you" -- you continue to make the difference.

Let's get it done,

Michael Whouley
General Election Strategist

[flaminbats]

30. I agree that the west in play..

Nevada will be a surprise state for Kerry because of Bush's arrogance on the Yucca Mountain problem.

New Mexico will be a surprise state for Bush because of his support of illegal immigration and freely handing out Green cards to cheap labor.

[prairie populist]

12. big story states splitting electoral votes

The big story is going to be Nebraska and Maine splitting electoral votes and Colorado approving their amendment to split electoral votes, also giving a small batch to Kerry.

[beyurslf]

13. I am in KS so what the hell: KS will go blue :)

[Pabst Blue Democrat]

14. KANSAS!!!!!!

.....won't go for Kerry. As much as I'd love it, it just won't happen. If Kerry wins Kansas they should give him the entire election on general principle.

I think that Missouri may end up swinging in our direction despite what many are saying.

[Guaranteed]

17. Florida is the most important state, but Iowa, NM and

Nevada are also going to be extremely important.

[FightinNewDem]

18. Razorbacks and Cheeseheads

Surprise Kerry state: Arkansas

Surprise Bush state: Wisconsin

[goodwalt]

23. Been telling people

to put the pipe down- actually think that you have it right. Starting to type and think in Tonto-like monosylabic terms. Looking for pipe. Must stop posting- or find Repug site that converses on this level.

[Minimus]

51. North Carolina for Kerry!

and, no I'm not smoking crack.

[naufragus]

22. I will gladly trade DE for MO

my county is bigger than deleware

[soggy]

25. arkansas and um, uh, new jersey?

i'm from arkansas originally and was there last weekend. let me tell you, bush is in big trouble there.

the latest poll shows bush winning in AR 46 to 45. i think everybody knows by now that an incumbent had better be polling at least 49 % in any state he wants to win. and on a local level, democrats have always owned the state... surprisingly. oh, and i love pointing out that gore states + new hampshire + ar = 270

i'm not too worried about jersey, but it's been closer than i'd like. losing jersey would be a disaster.

[billyoc]

27. Jersey will stay blue, I call a big landslide.

I'm from Toms River originally, believe me, Jersey is too busy burning Bush in effigy to bother responding to polls. That, and stealing gasoline to get to work. I'll bet on Kerry sweeping everything east of the Mississippi, with Bush barely being able to carry his home state.

[TheDonkey]

26. Bush could never capture Delaware, but NJ is worrisome

I think Kerry could snag Missouri (which would shock me, but still) and North Carolina.

[JCMach1]

32. last poll i saw had Kerry up by 9 in NJ

Bush is dreaming...

[illuminaughty]

42. Kerry will win Missouri

moveon.org meeting in K.C. (have to check details for yourself)
apparently they've had problems with fcreeps

[ianrs]

47. no

sorry, but new poll here
http://slerp.rutgers.edu/retrieve.php?id=150-1
has Kerry 51 - 38 likely voters
48 - 38 registered voters

not that polls are to be believed, of course ;-)

[Nordic]

28. Kerry will take Texas

I'm going out on a limb here.

:)

I just know too many good people in TX who can't stand that fuckwad Bush.

[maine_raptor]

29. Could be Maine, Kerry gets only 1 EV

Question 1, a tax cap measure, will be bringing out the "black helicopter and Chinese-led UN Army hiding under my bed" type voters that don't usually vote but do tend to vote R on the rest of the ballot when they do.

If the happens, it could make the state appear a bit redder than 2000.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. Oregon is the easiest call on the board as a potential sleeper

It's been 20 years or more since a Democratic presidential nominee received more than 47.15% in Oregon, so I have no idea why we think it's a cinch.

Several blue states could be very competitive this time, but to be different I'll isolate one that has not been mentioned: Louisiana. Not that Kerry will win, but I think it could be within 3 or 4 points, almost the equivalent of Ohio 2000.

[Awsi Dooger]

38. Stupid mistake on my part

No Democrat since Dukakis in '88 has received more than 47.15% in Oregon. Dukakis won Oregon with 51+% in '88.

[featherman]

35. Arizona to Kerry is my pick

Strange things going on there...rift in the GOP over immigration. Big GOTV possible among the sleeping giant...Hispanic voters.

Bush surprises... nowhere. I really tried to think of one realistically but expect that MN, WI, IA, NH, ME all still go to Kerry in my model.

[sr_pacifica]

36. Okay, going out on a limb

Kerry gets Arkansas!

[Lexingtonian]

37. ooh, fun time!

Kerry: wins Arizona

Bush: wins Virginia by 150 votes....and it doesn't hold up on recount

[Bluebear]

39. Nevada to Kerry

[illuminaughty]

43. ok

Kerry: Texas and Kansas

Bush surprise: They recount the fuckin' ballots in Florida and Kerry gets Florida EVs doubled!!! Al Gore escorts entire administration to the HAGUE!

No, I'm not drunk.

Hey, here in Kansas City there's already a problem with 20,000 more voter reg. cards than people who live in the district.

[NDFan]

44. ...

Texas?!

I just don't see it happening. Ditto with Kansas.:(

[Clintmax]

45. Florida goes to Kerry!

I live in Tallahassee and from what I see EVERYWHERE in this state, we will go to Kerry!

[liberalpress]

46. Trust me..

...Surprise Kerry state: Tennessee.

Right now bush ahead by 11, but 11% undecided. If they break for Kerry...

[BlondieK143]

48. Tennessee... to Kerry.

As interesting as it sounds, I'm highly confident that TN will go for Kerry. I really can't describe the feeling around here. I remember in 2000 when seeing a Gore bumper sticker was like trying to make peanut butter in a cheese factory, almost impossible. These days, I grow proud with the way my state has changed. Even in the most conservative of counties (mine included, Sevier) voter registration is up 99% (yes, that's actually true!) as opposed to 2000. Record turnouts were reported on the first day of early voting. The Dem party here has done such an amazing job with canvassing and events. I drive down the University of TN campus (Knoxville) and it's a completely different world. Sure, there are the SUVs with the "W - The President" (which I find rather disturbing) that mommys and daddys have bought for their spoiled kids; but, for the most part, all I see are positive signs that the Repubs are in for a shock in two weeks! Don't give up on us yet folks!

[Amaya]

52. Surprise Kerry State: Nevada

As for bush, don't know? Maybe Wisconsin?

[quaoar]

53. OK. Shooting for the moon here

Surprise Kerry state: Montana

Surprise Bush state: Maine