What if Colorado is apportioned?

[I Lean Left]

My understanding is that the referendum would apply immediately if passed. Does anyone know how it is polling? Will it be close? If it is close, they'll have to freeze the electoral votes out of Colorado until they have a difinitive answer (not to mention legal challenge!)

Ideally, the margin won't be close as to make it pivotal. Are any of the electoral count models using a split Colorado? Kerry getting 4 electoral votes out of Colorado would offset losing NH for example. If he knew for certain the referendum was going to pass, he could move resources out of NH. Or more directly, he could move resources out of Colorado and into Arizon and New Mexico where it would still be winner take all.

Just wondering.

[atre]

1. If the amendment passes...

Kerry will get at least 4 electoral votes from Colorado, and he may get 5. The state's net effect either way will be only +1 or -1, so there would be no incentive to move any resources there (other than to perhaps help Salazar beat the King of Bad Beer).

By the way, as a law student very interested in constitutional law, I don't see that any challenge to the amendment - should it pass - would be successful either way. Then again, the Court could simply apply the Equal Protection Clause to an absurd level like it did in Bush v. Gore (which practically speaking, every lawyer knows was results-based jurisprudence; the per curium opinion is absurd).

[beyurslf]

2. Last I saw, the proposal was very close and seemed to be gaining

I am thinking it is going to pass.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

3. Either way, if it passed, it would represent net gain of EV's for the Dems

from CO.

[I Lean Left]

4. Only if Kerry didn't win the Colorado popular vote

If that happens we will be moaning about not getting all 9.

I personally think it's bullshit to change the rules after the votes are cast. Rules should be in place before voting. Unfair to the campaigns.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

6. No, it would still be a gain of EV's from 2000, even though it would

be a loss from what it COULD have been.

[dolstein]

5. I'll tell you exactly what happens if Colorado is apportioned

If Kerry loses the Colorado popular vote but the referendum passes and Kerry's share of the states electoral votes puts him over the top, the referendum will be immediately challeneged by the Bush campaign, and the case will likely be appealed to the Supreme Court.

If Kerry wins the Colorado popular vote but the referendum passes and Bush's share of the state's electoral vote puts him over the top, the referendum will be immediately challeneged by the Kerry campaign, and the case will likely be appealed to the Supreme Court.

I suspect that the Supreme Court would be likely to intervene if the lower court ruling goes against Bush.

[Guaranteed]

7. Just vote for it.

It's EXTREMELY important.