It all comes down to four states...

[Dawgs]

I have carefully studied every poll for each individual state, and decided that there are really only four states that could decide this race. Of course, I could be wrong, but looking at the trends and eliminating the outliers I have concluded the following. Basically if a state was close, but ALWAYS trended higher for a particular canidate, I gave that state to that canidate.

Kerry should win all of these states for a total of 243 electoral votes-->
California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Washington, DC, Delaware, Vermont, and Pennsylvania

Bush should win all of these states(remember, based on polls) for a totol of 175 electoral votes-->
Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota

There are 7 states that trend for a canidate, but are still VERY close. These states are Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Maine, and Arizona.

Kerry will probably get three of these states for 21 electoral votes-->
Iowa, Wisconsin, and Maine

Bush will probably get four of these states for 36 electoral votes-->
Arkansas, Colorado, Tennessee, and Arizona

That leaves only four states-->
Ohio, 20
Florida, 27
Missouri, 11
Nevada, 5

John Kerry needs to win any two of these four states to take the Presidency from stupid. In this scenario, he could still win if he loses Ohio and Florida. Kerry states minus Ohio and Florida equals 280.

I actually think he will win Ohio AND Florida, so it doesn't really matter anyway.

[Quetzal]

1. Doesn't Maine split their electoral votes up?

[Renew Deal]

3. Maybe

The winner of the CD gets the electoral vote. They didn't split 4 years ago.

[Renew Deal]

2. Missouri has been trending toward Bush for a while.

The other three fit nice. You might want to add Arkansas. It has been tight there. I still think Florida is the key. Kerry could lose WI and IA and still win this thing with Florida.

[Dawgs]

4. Missouri has been trending Bush, but not by much...

and Kerry was very close most of the year. I tried to look at the whole year to see what most of the state was thinking.

[RazzleCat]

5. Missouri

I think Missouri can go to Kerry. If we can get the urban vote out (mostly democratic) we will outnumber the "out state" vote. I am working every chance I get, knocking on doors, calling voters, setting up rides, anything to get the city/county of St. Louis out to vote for Kerry. In general I also see a lot of republican areas sporting Kerry signs, so Bush does not have a "lock" in the strong republican zip codes. Voting history in Missouri shows that when St. Louis votes the state goes to the democrats, when st. louis stays home, we go republican.

[sunnybrook]

8. we have not given up in st. louis

the polls are extremely close in Missouri and we have a phenomonal number of new voters registered in St. Louis city and county. Don't count out Missouri!

[missouri dem]

10. I feel good about southwest Missouri

We are working hard and will cut into w's margin here. I have never seen democrats so fired up and have had a number of republicans tell me that they will not be voting for Bush. We have a great ground team working and will deliver every Dem to the polls on Nov. 2nd. Please St. Louis and Kansas City keep working. GOTV and Missouri is ours.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. Hmm. You've got me thinking of another tie scenario where we win Ohio

In this one we win Ohio but lose Wisconsin, Nevada, and New Mexico, AND Florida.

[Thrill]

7. I think its simple

who ever wins two of these three wins

Penn, FL, Ohio

[ksoze]

9. For Bush those states are: denial, confusion, arrogance & stupor

[louis c]

11. In your scenario

Kerry needs to just win Ohio. He is ahead there in three of four polls, and that's before the undecideds break our way, or the turnout is greater than expected.


link on edit;

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

[Stuckinthebush]

12. If Bush wins Colorado

and the voters also approve the split of electoral votes, then Kerry will get a few more.

Just a bonus!

[PaDem]

13. Kerry winning in Wisconsin is less than a 50-50 proposition

if you ask me. Iowa is up for grabs too. New Hampshire is far from being in Kerry's column. Unfortunately all of the states you gave to Bush will go to Bush. People are delusional who think VA, NC etc. will go blue. Missouri is going to go Bush also. It comes down to PA, OH and FLA. PA is going to go Kerry. So, Kerry must win FL or OH. It boils down to those two states.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. New Hampshire is solidly for its good neighbor Kerry

Wisconsin is goiung to be close, as will Nevada and New Mexico.
Colorado is a possible steal for us too.
Virginia will need to turn out a huge Bush vote to keep Kerry from winning. The Kerry ground orginization there is impressive.

[PaDem]

15. I'll believe VA when I see it.........

and why are you so confident in NH? I think Kerry can win there for sure, but the polls I've seen have Bush still on top. I agree Colorado is doable. No question Nevada and New Mexico are toss ups.

[Dawgs]

16. I picked New Hampshire, Iowa, and Wisconsin for Kerry because..

In every Zogby poll this year Kerry is in the lead. I just don't see how that trend suddenly ends on November 2nd.

[demwing]

17. You toss around words like "delusional" like you know better.

And perhaps you do, but there's really no evidence of that.

I don't think its delusional to say a state that is polling win the margin (NC) is up for grabs, especially when the Democratic VP comes from the damn state.

We may not win NC, but saying that it is delusional to hope so, and therefore to even try is, at best, defeatism.

At worst, its a direct effort to disrupt hope.