Kerry now winning electoral college in Electoral Vote.com

[Nicholas_J]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 284 Bush 247

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

THis is almost a thirty electoral vote increase in Kerry's state polling since yesterday due to the 13 battleground state polls showing Kerry leads.

[flowomo]

1. and the latest Ohio polls are not factored in there yet

[7th_Sephiroth]

2. wow

it even shows florida going to bush *wich i strongly believe it will*

[endnote]

3. I said it many times. This site is shit.

They don't use any MOE information to come up with the numbers. Good for morale but meaningless.

[RichardRay]

5. Try reading the details he provides

You're quite wrong about his methodology and his accuracy.

Richard Ray - Jackson Hole, WY

[featherman]

7. Hardly meaningless

It illustrates very well how the country breaks down in regional spheres of influence for the two parties. The devil is in the details (will WI stay DEM or flip, etc) and all this can vary wildly day to day depending on which poll is most current. But the regional and cultural nature of modern American electoral politics for this election (and the past three) is very clearly illustrated and overall quite consistent.

[trogdor]

9. The commentary is worth reading, but the map is shit.

The methodology they use seems sound on its face, but all polls, even partisan ones, are considered equally. That's garbage. If the Arnold Schwarzenegger Fan Club held a poll, California would turn red for the next several days.

[endnote]

10. Well said. If it showed Chimpy up you'd all say it's shit too!

Like you did a couple of days ago!... C'mon guys, think rationally and steadily. Instad of getting all emotional at any poll swing...

[Nicholas_J]

11. In fact if you read the article they are using MoE information

They divide the states and assign them in ranking by those polls in which a candidate ha a five point lead in a state (which is always beyond the MoE) assign other states as leanind to a candidates if the candidate leads in that state by 1-4 points.

In this latest projection Kerry has 228 electoral votes in states that he has a fuve point or larger lead. Bush is shown to have only 184 electoral votes in states that he has a five point or larger lead in. Almost no poll has an MoE greater than 5 points so assigning states in which a candidate has MORE than a five point lead is a sure indication that this candidate has a certain lead in those states.

In fact the methodology of this eletoral vote projection is far more certain than any of the other electoral vote projections as their methodology is far more conservative (in methodology, not politics}in assigning states to a candidate, as they do not assign a state to a candidate for sure unless he has a certainb lead in that stte.

[featherman]

4. This site has it about right this morning

I'd be inclined to flip IA, OH, and NM to Kerry.

AZ, CO, WV, AR, maybe a couple others have to be presumed leaning Bush but could also flip with a high enough DEM turnout that gives Kerry a +3 or better PV margin overall.

[Lilli]

6. I'm loving those numbers

:)

[Kahuna]

8. But...but...He called Mary Cheney a LESBIAN... that can't be...

:evilgrin: