Hey Experts -- Will Dems Take Control Of Senate... House?

[Tace]

DU'ers have been focusing on the presidential race. Polls and registrations indicate Kerry is running well at this time. Any analysis on the House and Senate? Are the Dems gunna' hit a grand slam?

[featherman]

1. Senate is a realistic possibility. House would be a shock and

dependent on tremendous GOTV margin for DEMS and some unexpected surprises.

[dave123williams]

2. People will probably vote their party lines....

So if Dems turn out in force, yeah; we'll take some seats, I think.

[wishlist]

3. Sen Jon Corzine of N.J. gave very upbeat assessment to Natl Press Corps

I caught Sen. Corzine's press conference on CSpan this morning where he broke down all of the Senate races and discussed them in detail. He seemed very optimistic about our prospects, especially in a few races such as Kentucky and S.C. where he thinks the Democrats' chances have improved in recent weeks.

[PermanentRevolution]

4. I don't call myself an expert...

...but the Senate is definitely within reach. Strong enough turnout should give us the majority there. The House, I'm not gonna hold my breath. It's a long shot at best. But hopefully, with the Senate, we can get enough accomplished. Kerry's been a senator for 20 years. You don't spend that much time without building up some good favors to call in on both sides of the aisle. If we get majority control, we can call in some favors on the big issues, get the Senate to lean hard on the House, and get key legislation passed. Hopefully.

[Thrill]

5. I use to think so BUT

I don't feel good about it her in NC

[pabloseb]

6. Unfortunately, unlikely

The house is pretty much lost (though it would help to gain some seats).
There are ~7 competitive races for the senate, and dems need to win 6 of them in order to achieve the majority. So it's possible, but not very likely.

[wuushew]

10. Does that include VP Edwards

who would be the President and thus tie breaker of the Senate?

[Hippo_Tron]

18. Kentucky is now dead even!

We didn't expect this to be a competative seat but now we have a real shot. Not to mention that out of our senate candidates, Knowles and Carson who live in the most Republican states are up by more than any of our other dem candidates. The senate is a much better possibility, especially w/ VP Edwards than it was before.

[Emboldened Chimp]

7. We've got a real shot to retake the Senate...

and we'll definitely pick up seats in the House. Whether or not we take control of House leadership is another story. We did gain 26 or so seats in '82, which, if that occured this year, would bring the House closer to parity.

[NewJeffCT]

8. Realistically, Senate is possible, House is unlikely

I would guess it is 50-50 on the Senate, assuming Daschle holds on to his seat. However, this precludes any attack by Bush's buddy Osama, which would swing votes to the RepubliCONs.

The House is unlikely given Texas redistricting. I think we can make it closer, though. (A couple of potential upsets in Connecticut... but, I think realistically think both Dem challengers will lose close races due to financing issues)

[jocapo]

9. Similar to 1994?

I'd like to compare this year to the 1994 Re-pub surprise. I can find the final results but I can't find any info about what the the polls were predicting leading into the election. Does anyone have any ideas about where I might find historic info from the 1994 pollsters?
Thanks in advance....

[Killarney]

11. Senate, small chance. House, no way.

[Senior citizen]

12. Landslides take down everything in their way

President Kerry's landslide victory is likely to give Democrats control of both the House and the Senate, simply because those who vote Kerry/Edwards are much too angry at the chimp to consider voting for pukes at any level. One thing you never want to do is to get in the way of a landslide.

[Dancing_Dave]

14. I sure hope Senior citizen is right, but it won't happen HERE

The Democratic landslide won't be everywhere. In Kansas, we're still locked in the post-9/11 repuke myth and propaganda bubble. Since Michael Moore seems to be the only famous Democratic boldly informed enought to take it on, we won't have anything to do with a Democratic landslide quite yet.

I think there could be a Democratic landslide in a number of traditionally Democratic states which had moved in the repuke direction in the last few years. The rest of us are still stuck in a scenario right out of George Orwell's 1984!

[Tace]

13. I LIke Senior Citizen's Thinking -- Thanks Everyone For The Insight!

[dolstein]

15. It's possible, but so many races are still toss-ups

A last-minute Democratic surge in the polls would definitely help things.

[The Magistrate]

21. Glad You Think So, Mr. Dolstein

It does seem to me that a massacre of Republican candidates for representative in enclaves like New England and New York, a thing not impossible, might turn the House of Representatives. The Senate we will take this year....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[JohnnyCougar]

16. We should take back the Senate. I predict it.

Predictions:

We will pick up Alaska, Colorado, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Illinois. But we have to keep Georgia, Florida, South Dakota, North Carolina and South Carolina. Of these, the only one we might not keep is South Carolina, besides Georgia, which is a lost cause. We end up with a few seats majority If we keep North and South Carolina. I think Florida will go our way. I also think Daschle will prevail in SD.

We will most likely win seats back in the House, despite redistricting in Texas. We need to win 12 seats to take control of the house. I think a reasonable prediction is that we win 8, ignoring turnout issues completely. If we get a large turnout, that number could move up to 12 easily.

[noonwitch]

17. The House is not likely, until the next census-induced redistricting

The GOP has redistricted a lot of states to their advantage, including Michigan, because we had a repub governor at the time. Dems need to strategize to get more governors prior to the 2010 census.

[SavageWombat]

19. Odds better than we know

I understand that, while the odds of winning enough races to retake the House are against us, they're better than the Republicans had in 1994.

[Tace]

20. I Believe A Clean Sweep Is Necessary To Prosecute The Administration

for crimes against humanity. Otherwise, I have this awful feeling that Kerry will pardon this bunch "for the good of the country."