An interesting comment from Lawrence O'Donnell, MSNBC

[nine30]

He was on Keith Olbermann yesterday and said the following:

Historically, almost always, the incumbent's job approval rating close to election time turns out to be the final percentage of votes that he gets. The undecideds, or the very late deciders, almost always overwhelming break for the challenger.

And he cited several examples to back it up. If thats true, then we can expect GW to get about 49% of the popular vote. Kerry's fate will depend mostly on turnout.

[trumad]

1. Dubay's at 44 percent

This is a no duh to anyone who knows the history of elections... The media acts like it's not.

[faithnotgreed]

2. i really like lawrence o donnell

at this point, i dont think anyone can predict anything because this thing is wild. but i do feel confident that kerry will have the most votes

[Redleg]

16. Lawrence has been doing excellent work on McLaughlin's show.

Every week he and Eleanor Clift make Buchanan and Blankely look like they are going to quit the team out of frustration. I just love watching those Bush enablers spin and spin and dig themselves deeper and deeper into the hole. Soon they will have no credibility.

[faithnotgreed]

23. that sounds so good! i bet he and eleanor are a great team of sanity!

[TexasSissy]

27. Yes. Much better than Mort, who really just adds to the "right."

[Catfight]

3. I think this is different this year. Here's my spin, I think undecideds

are Bush supporters but they are so embarrassed they are for him that they call themselves undecided voters. When they go to the polls, they'll vote for Bush but still never come clean about it. That's my take on it, they are ashamed to admit they are voting for someone so dimwitted and such a failure but they like him anyway. Sort of like the kid who still loves his abusive parents, it's a dysfunctional relationship, but it's all they know. Bush appeals to the weakest of character.

[fugop]

7. Nah

I don't think I believe that. Isn't the pool of undecideds even smaller in this election than last time? We know there are always some people who can't make up their minds. They're not all secret Bushies. Maybe some, but not all.

Trust O'Donnell. He's the man.

[Dudley_DUright]

14. He also said on the McL Group that "Bush will lose all three debates"

(check) and therefore lose the election since "the american people will not re-elect (sic) a president who lost three straight debates" (hopefully check). :-)

[speedoo]

8. I'm afraid you might be right.

I was up very late last night, watching the Peter Hart focus group with Wisconsin women. I think most of them were in the Milwaukee area. There were a couple of undecided women who could easily fit your description. My basic take on it was that at least in Wisconsin, Kerry is not in good shape with 18-50 yr old females, a group that Gore carried by 9 points in 2000. Kerry nationally is only tied or slightly ahead.

[Jacobin]

9. Unfortunately, I agree with your theory

They are too embarassed to say out loud that they like the dimwit....but they do because of the media brainwashing machine.

[Catfight]

17. Exactly, they don't know why they like him but they just do. I know

a few people here at work would be embarrassed to admit they like Bush because the intelligent people around here always make comments how they can't believe anyone would vote for the idiot. I just look at my friend when someone says something like that and he obviously is uncomfortable. He 'claims' he's undecided and he's a registered indepen-idiot, but I would put all my money down he'll vote for Bush if he decides to vote at all. He's the kind of voter that if it's the least bit of a hassle and not bother, like if the lines are long or if it's raining outside. He's just a follower so he knows if he doesn't vote people would look at him as a loser, but if he has a good enough excuse in his mind, he'll forget to vote. That's the problem with Bush's voters, they are not excited about him unless you're a die-hard fundamentalist.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Undecideds will go Kerry; perception of him may limit the percentage

The internals of yesterday's CBS poll yesterday screamed Kerry's problem -- he is not viewed favorably enough to take full advantage of Bush's vulnerabilities. That survey had only 39% viewing Kerry favorably to 44% unfavorably. A full 60% think he will say anything on a given issue to 37% who believe he sticks to principle, exactly reverse of Bush's number on the same question. As dolstein wrote in this thread, even people who don't like Bush may default to him because they think even less of Kerry.

It is something those of us who supported other candidates worried about during the primaries, whether Kerry's personality/likeability gap made him the proper nominee versus a flawed incumbent, but one who is somehow viewed as likeable. This election, regardless of our nominee, was always going to be 45-45 going in, with 10% undecided or persuadable. You can see that in virtually every poll all year, the trailing candidate in the 45% range and the other guy somewhat above. According to a Zogby study, late undecideds put a premium on personality traits. Was Kerry the ideal candidate to win the greatest chunk of those?

I think Kerry needs to spend the final two weeks on two of three basic themes, not ping ponging to respond to Bush attacks or policies. He also must boost his image -- some combination of positive commercials with Kerry speaking throughout, talk show appearances, campaign events featuring a unique personal anecdote the media will replay, and definitely a re-emergence of those swift boat buddies especially the guy whose life Kerry saved. Where the heck has he been? That provided a huge primary boost in Iowa. Perhaps he's been around but the media doesn't mention it.

[CatWoman]

4. from the transcript

O‘DONNELL: The important number, the important number in an incumbent‘s election is what is the polling number for the incumbent? And by the way the definitive article on this is in the “Los Angeles Times” today. Here in L.A., Ron Brownstein wrote, the incumbent in any race, especially presidential races, usually gets exactly what his final poll number is. They usually pick up no votes in the election. All of that goes to the challenger. So when you‘re looking at polls today, for example, that show the president at 48. And they show John Kerry at say, 44 or 45. If that‘s what the poll is on November 1, you should all bet on John Kerry winning because historically, what happens is the incumbent picks up less than 1 percent. Less than one more point than what the polls indicate and everything else goes to the challenger.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6281100/

[dolstein]

5. The problem is

I can easily imagine some people who have an unfavorable view of Bush still voting for him because they find Kerry even more objectionable.

[lancdem]

6. His rating isn't that high

It's more like 46, 47 percent on average.

[politicaholic]

10. The polls are also a little skewed...

Like 1992 and 1996, there were very strong "Rock the Vote" drives. That seemed to wane in 2000, but now there are huge concerts and Rock the Vote drives at colleges all over the country.

The polls are based on people who have voted before and are likely to do it again. I'm confident the first time voters will come through this year.

[ArkDem]

11. Yes, none of the polls are factoring in concert goers.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

12. O'Donnell got that from this LATimes article....

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/la-na-fifty18oct18,1,4757942.story

A pretty fascinating analysis, though be forewarned it
focuses on Gallup....

[snowbear]

13. First timers

I agree Politaholic with the "first time" voter impact. I was initially a Clark supporter, but I've always given the credit to Howard Dean for getting young, first time voters so incredibly gung-ho about this election :) !!

When you consider the amount of dorm-living college kids who are not being factored in to ANY of these polls.. I'm sure the amount is staggering! ~~ :toast:

[fugop]

18. Then there's the Jon Stewart effect!

Let's hope he continues to fire up the young voters as well. This "Crossfire" thing can only get him even MORE viewers.

[Kahuna]

15. That makes a lot of sense. If by election day, you can't approve

of *'s job performance, why would you vote for him? I only give him one percentage point for the idiots who might do so.

[Name removed]

20. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[SidDithers]

22. Enjoy your (short) stay...

Sid

[mmonk]

24. Out

[seabeyond]

21. i say gw really at 46 n/t

[jocapo]

25. Another O'Donnell appearance that impressed me

was Last Friday night on Scarborough. Pat Buchanan was guest hosting and I happened to tune in during this exchange:

(I copied the following excerpts from the MSNBC transcript at http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6273392/ )

...BUCHANAN: SCARBOROUGH COUNTRY has received hundreds of your angry e-mails about Lawrence O‘Donnell‘s remarks on the president‘s faith on last night‘s show.
Here‘s what Lawrence said.

O‘DONNELL: George Bush‘s God is a very strange God. This is a God who wants everyone to be free. That‘s a very, very peculiarly frustrated God. That is a God that has been apparently frustrated for centuries in George Bush‘s imagination.
BUCHANAN: Ever since the Garden of Eden.
O‘DONNELL: Well, this is a God—this is also a God who gives the gift of freedom. He says that‘s a gift from the almighty, that the Afghan people got this gift from the almighty this year. What was George Bush‘s God doing to those people up to now? You see, that‘s the problem with this. For very simpleminded religious people, that stuff works.
BUCHANAN: Lawrence O‘Donnell is still with us, along with Paul Kengor, who‘s joining us. He‘s the author of “God and George W. Bush: A Spiritual Life.” Lawrence, I want to ask you, you believe that the president‘s faith is simple-minded?
O‘DONNELL: Yes, it‘s extremely childish. He anthropomorphizes God and attributes to human motivations, human desires, human aspirations, all these things that you and I, Pat, in Catholic education were taught not to do very, very specifically.
BUCHANAN: Do you believe that God wills that all men be saved?
O‘DONNELL: No, I do not.
BUCHANAN: Do you believe God desires that all men be saved?
O‘DONNELL: No, I don‘t believe that God has desires. What we were taught in Catholic education is God‘s ways are unknowable. The essence of the Catholic God is that God works in mysterious ways. George W. Bush doesn‘t think God works in mysterious ways. George W. Bush thinks he knows what God wants, and George W. Bush then says, I am here to execute what God wants.

Etc., etc.

This is quite a long exchange and it's well worth reading. I thought it was really outside of the norm for TV talk shows.

[Nederland]

26. Oh no

A Lawrence O'Donnell prediction is the kiss of death--he has a horrible record of prediction elections. I remember when Arnold first enter the race he was polling at around 30% and Lawrence said: "Arnold has peaked. His numbers have nowhere to go but down."

Arnold won with more than 50% of the vote.