Rasmussen Battleground for 10/18 ( The Best News So Far)

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3 day daily tracking poll has bus leading Kerry 48%-47%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Zogby has the race dead even at 45% for the 3 day tracking for the same period. However, the undecideds are leaning away from Bush.

http://www.zogby.com

In Rasmussen's 7 day tracking of the 16 key battleground states, Kerry has increased his lead, as he his done slowly but surely, for 10 days straight. Today, Kerry holds a 48.8% lead to Bush's 46.3% in these 16 key states. On 10/10, Bush lead in this group by 48.1% to 46.6%.

In the best news yet, in the 7 day rolling averages in 5 key battleground states, Kerry either leads or is tied in every one.

Florida, Tie 47% (Kerry has erased a 7 point Bush lead in 12 days, and today marks a 1 point gain from yesterday)

Michigan, Kerry 49%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Ohio, Tie 47% (This is a 2 point Kerry gain from yesterday and Kerry has erased a 5 point Bush lead here in 7 days)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 50%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday, and should move Pennsylvania into the "Leans Kerry" column soon)

Minnesota, Kerry 48%-47% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

The numbers over the last week have demonstrated a significant trend toward Kerry in all tracking polls. Today's Rasmussen numbers confirm it. If these numbers can be sustained over the next 3 or 4 days, the election will be ours.

[sonicx]

1. cool

[Jack_Dawson]

2. So Why is Everyone Crying?

:cry:

Do you know how many young people are flying under the radar right now? Kerry won't just win...he will SPANK the chimp.

[maxsolomon]

4. because its just so beautiful

i always cry when democracy triumphs over corporate fascism!

[WI_DEM]

3. Sensational news, Louis!!

[movonne]

5. I love hearing this news, but I always worry that when Kerry is

winning this horrible administration will pull something. I really can't wait for this thing to be over...

[sonicx]

6. btw, why can't kerry ever get ahead nationally?

he's doing good in battlegrounds in this poll, but national is always a point or 2 behind bush.

[grytpype]

14. Maybe a huge Bush lead in the Red States?

That would explain it.

[lancdem]

7. Yes, wonderful news

These numbers are more important than any national tracking poll.

[louis c]

17. Ohio, Ohio, Ohio

[sonias]

8. Freedom is on the march...

right here in our own country. Regime change begins right here at home.

Sonia

[lavendermist]

9. I know the media is biased..

but could someone explain to me how they get the numbers, or how can they possibly continue to say that * is ahead? I don't understand. Leading is leading. What is the deal? :eyes:

[unfrigginreal]

11. Here's an example of how given in a rare moment of candor from

the Foxnews polling outfit.

"While the president holds a lead, the race is far from over," comments Opinion Dynamics President John Gorman. "One odd factor is that much of the lead is concentrated in the so-called 'red states,' which were pretty much conceded to Bush at the beginning. Thus his national lead does not reflect a big lead in the battleground states that will decide the election. We may well be facing a situation, as we did in 2000, where the popular vote and the electoral vote produce different results."

[lavendermist]

13. ok...

now I get it. If I am going to look at polls I need to focus on the individual battleground states instead of the whole. Duh. I really do remember 2000. Never again will that happen. I still predict a Kerry landslide. Thanks for the answer. :thumbsup:

[efhmc]

10. Thank you, Jesus!!

[nine30]

12. "Kerry goes drip, drip, drip.."

I like it the way John Zogby put it on his website. Its like Karpov accumulating tiny positional advantages in a game of chess, coming out in the end to deliver a crushing blow.

[vickie]

15. Louis, thank you as always for this great information.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. Early next week should tell the realities of these states and the nation

If these numbers hold for 5 or 6 days, Kerry is in excellent shape. Bush's post debate uptick in national polls seemed to begin very late last week. The Washington Post poll editor just said they have tracked a one point Bush gain virtually every day since then, now a 51 -46 Bush edge. I'm hoping pollsters like Zogby, ARG and Rasmussen don't detect anything similar, nor a boost in approval rating. A 7 day sample will not yet have caught a steady change, if it is true. Especially state preference, which tends to lag.

[shawmut]

18. great news!

thanks, louis c.


:kick:

[louis c]

19. kick