Which deep red state has the best chance of going blue in future elections

[Doosh]

I say South Dakota. Bush won it by 23 in 2000, now he leads Kerry by only 10. Clinton came withing 3 points in both 1992 and 1996. I think this could go Dem by 2012

[aldian159]

1. All depends on Daschle

If he wins, it makes it that much easier to go blue in the near future.

[dolstein]

2. Disagree with you on South Dakota

Ross Perot took a lot of votes away from Bush in South Dakota in 1992 and 1996. Unless there is a major influx of people from other, bluer states, I think South Dakota will stay red.

As for red states that have a shot of going blue, I'd look for any state with a rapdily growing minority population. Colorado is now a battleground state. Arizona isn't quite there yet, but it seems to be trending our way. I think North Carolina has a growing Hispanic population.

[Czolgosz]

3. I wouldn't focus on Hispanic voters. Down here in Texas we have

plenty of Hispanics but it's the biggest red state (or the reddest big state, depending how you see it). I see hope in AZ, TN, LA, AR, CO.

[efhmc]

5. Actually as a hard working Dem in Texas, I am sure that a future

candidate from the south will take Texas (Edwards in 2012). It will happen. We are headed that way.

[CitySky]

10. I agree

A few factors:

(1) Houston votes Dem and is growing fast.
(2) The Hispanics along the border vote Dem. That population is creeping northward and will overtake some R areas.
(3) TX elected Ann Richards governor.
(4) TX is the home of Molly Ivins, Jim Hightower, and other voices of the populist progressive tradition.
(5) TX Dems are working our buns off!

TX is definitely tilting purple. Blue to come...

[efhmc]

14. Love you, hon, keep on working. We will overcome!!

[Doohickie]

17. Gosh... I thought I was the only one that would say...

...Texas.

Seriously.

I mean it.

And sooner than you think... maybe 2008.

[efhmc]

19. I am seeing it here already in this VERY conservative small town.

Today, I went to early vote and our county clerk (a Dem woman that refused to change to you know what) told me that there were about 500 early voters yeaterday. That is an enormous amount for this county and lots of voters are always good news for Dems.!!!

[Czolgosz]

23. I completely agree about Texas -- I'm think total blue by 2012

But I don't think it will be all about the increase in the Hispanic vote (I think our last Governors race confirmed that it's got to be more than an increase in the Hispanic vote that lifts us to majority -- I also see proof of this in San Antonio politics). I see Texas going blue from the urban centers outward, while south Texas (where I'm from) remains blue.

[efhmc]

26. I so agree. I think it will be a mix of peoples that makes us regain our

sanity.

[Indiana_Dem]

9. Even though Indiana hasn't gone blue since 1964,

we are starting to wake up and there is a growing population of Hispanics here as well. That is my hope anyway, against all odds.

[Warpy]

4. North Carolina

They've been hammered for decades by outsourcing and offshoring and people in the more industrial (and more heavily populated) western half of the state are starting to connect the dots.

I think they're in play this year, and may yet go for Kerry.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

6. In FUTURE elections

(not this one) it's Texas. Mark my words. Dems are working their ASSES off here. We WILL turn this state blue again, watch. Just give us some time, we are determined.

[efhmc]

15. Another true blue Texas darling. We will be there and SOON!!!

[Doohickie]

18. My wife was just mentioning how even the Repubs are losing all

...respect for Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who let DeLay push him around about redistricting when those special sessions would have been better spent solving school financing. Not only has the current system pushed up against its own artificial limits, but the courts have declared it unconstitutional. And it's still not Perry's #1 priority, even though part of the court decision was a threat to shut down schools in October of 2005 unless financing is fixed.

Just today, Richardson, a supposed "cash rich" district, announced they will have to close down a middle school because they are out of money.

Sheesh, what an idiot.

Anyway, look for a strong challenge from the Democratic side during the next gubernatorial election. I'm not even sure Perry will win the Repub primary; people are that disgusted with him.

[efhmc]

21. Wow!, that's where I graduated. Always a rich and very conservative

school district. I remember when they would not take federal money for lunches because that would make them slaves to Washington. Didn't seem to matter about the kids that might need that assistance, they were keeping their scruples intact.

[MasonJar]

7. We are working our buns off here in Kentucky. We are taking

a few weeks off after the election and then we are going full speed ahead. We want our state back. Fletcher and Bunning are helping us out.

[librechik]

8. Colorado--rapidly becoming California

and not all transplants are Republicans!

[BillZBubb]

11. The Hispanic population is the key.

Texas, Arizona, & Colorado will all be blue eventually. Colorado is probably going to be the first. Then Arizona. Finally, the mother load in Texas.

None of them will be Navy blue, but they'll be tinted our way.

[West Coast Democrat]

12. Nevada and Arizona...but are these deep red?

As for deep red, I'd say Texas, in future elections...unless the GOP can somehow make huge inroads among Hispanic voters.

[zaj]

13. Arizona...

[Tweed]

16. Louisiana

1. New Orleans population
2. Has never popularly elected a Republican Senator
3. Blacks are having more children then whites
4. Hispanics from Texas
5. If Bush gets re-elected, people will get poorer and go more towards the Democrats.

[girl gone mad]

27. I second that. n/t

[Ediacara]

20. Montana

Is rapidly urbanising, about to elect a Dem governor, and elect a Dem state House of Reps. Many people are moving here from Washington and California, and although there are some nutjobs, the people overall are pretty progressive.

It will be a 2008 battleground.

[magnolia]

22. VIRGINIA!!!

[DuaneBidoux]

25. I agree that it is most likely to be Virginia that permanently turns blue

If you've read Retro vs. Metro (highly recommended), all the pieces are in place. There is a highly educated high tech professional community that is thriving and exploding in the NE, and they tend now to vote progressive.

As far as a really red state likely to turn blue? I think that no really red state is likely to ever turn blue. It just doesn't work that way.

[VOX]

24. Arizona -- used to be solid GOP, but it's shifting Democratic...

As the Hispanic population begins to fully participate in the voting process, and as more Californians move to AZ, the state that was once home to Barry Goldwater is experiencing a shift toward Democratic politics.

[Awsi Dooger]

28. Arizona, Louisiana and Virginia

Reasons for each sufficiently detailed in earlier posts.

[SmileyBoy]

29. It won't be North Dakota, that's fer damn sure.

In 2000, we had 33 percent go to Gore, and I think only 34 percent are projected to go to Kerry this year. Too much White Flight in Fargo, and remember all the redneck farmers.

[69KV]

30. Look at former deep red states that already went blue

Now deep blue:
Vermont
California
New Jersey
Maryland
Washington

Now battleground states:
Nevada
New Hampshire
Oregon
Florida
Ohio
Colorado

My guess for the next deep red state to turn blue is Virginia. The reason is most of its population is in the Washington D.C. metro area, and the state really is now culturally and politically linked more closely to the Atlantic coast states (DC to Maine) than to the deep south anymore.

Vermont (Vermont!!) was a Repuke voting state as recently as 1988, but look how fast and how much they changed. Same with New Hampshire and California, though not by as much in NH. I think we have a chance to target a lot of other states to paint blue. And I say we go for the big kahuna - Texas! Take back that state, and the Repukes are finished as a party.