Read this! GREAT news....

[Clinton Crusader]

Got an email from a friend who lives in Springfield, Mass. who contacted the Kerry Campaign-this is the essence of it-

First, dont listen to the polls MSM is spewing! Regardless of what the polls say, if KE04 takes all of New England, plus just ONE of the three we're all watching (OH, FL, PA), we WILL win. If voter registration is any indication, this is huge.
:dem: :dem: :dem: :dem:

:kick:

[Trajan]

1. MSM ? ...

Wha ?

[democrat_patriot]

2. Main Stream Media

[Clinton Crusader]

3. mainstream media nt

:kick:

[nostamj]

4. MSM = Main Stream Media n/t

n/t = "No Text" (in message field)

[lancdem]

5. That's not exactly right

If Kerry wins all the Gore states plus NH, he'll have 264 EVs. He needs Ohio or Florida to guarantee a win. PA was a Gore state in 2000.

[hippiechick]

6. That's what it said ...

'all of New England plus either OH, PA or FL' ...


:shrug:

[Guaranteed]

9. PA was a Gore state...

You sure they didn't say either OH or FL?

[DemocracyInaction]

10. lance---exactly ....that's why I get the jitters when we talk about it

as "battleground". It's must win because we did before. And THEN and only THEN comes the Ohio or Florida add for a win. And Florida is not going to be ours if we run God on the ticket 'cause he can't take on Jeb's machine. Ohio is do-able. And, of course, we also have to make sure we secure our other 'blue states' of Wisconsin and Iowa or we are back to square root zip.

[Guaranteed]

7. We're GOING to win Pennsylvania...

But, with my calculations after factoring in that and Minnesota, we still need 32 EVs from FL, OH, Wisconsin, Iowa, NH, NM and Nevada (which I know is entirely possible, even probable)...but why do they say only ONE?

Do they know something they're not telling us about the rest of these battleground states?

[Thurston Howell IV]

8. Sorry, but this doesn't make sense

Kerry needs some key midwestern states as well, such as Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin. It ain't in the bag if he takes New England.

[calico1]

11. Maybe they meant all of New England

in addition to the other strong K/E States? That would make more sense.

[Clinton Crusader]

it says ALL of New England and...

Im only the messenger!~ This was sent to me by email from a friend who talked right to them. The way I read it is if KE takes ALL of New England PLUS just ONE of either FL, PA or OH, they win. I think the other Gore states are a given. It's entirely possbie, if not probable they DO know something we do not and maybe they KNOW how everything else will pan out, and this is the scenario they're working off. :shrug:

Dont shoot the messenger! lol
:kick:

[calico1]

23. Sorry, I am not trying to shoot the messenger.

But I think they are probably assuming CA, IL, WA, etc. and that is why they aren't mentioned in the e-mail. If Gore had won NH in 2000 he would be President so winning all of New England is important but that's in addition to the other blue States.

[Tweed]

25. The other Gore states aren't a given

Wisconsin has been leaning towards Bush and Iowa is a tossup.

[Guaranteed]

13. If this is true, it sounds like

they know something about NM and Iowa.

Here's the deal: We have to win two of the big three, FL, OH and PA (and we're GOING to win PA), PLUS either one or two out of NM, NV, WI, IA, and NH. If we win Ohio, NM and Iowa would do it (not NH, though- it's basically irrelevant unless we want a tie) or NV and Iowa. If we win FL, any of those but NH would win it for us.

This all assumes Minn., PA and Oregon wins, though.

[Thurston Howell IV]

21. NM and Iowa seem too close to call n\t

[girl gone mad]

31. New Mexico is still a toss up.

I just spoke with one of the guys in charge of the campaign in Northern New Mexico and he's optimistic, but they are working very hard to GOTV right now through election day.

[bushalert]

12. If Gore would have won NH, would he have won the election?

[Guaranteed]

15. Yes.

That would have been 271.

[calico1]

16. Yes. However after the last census

some areas in the North East lost electoral votes. CT went from 8 to 7 so I don't think Kerry can just win the Gore States plus NH. I think he needs one more.

[lancdem]

20. Yes

[Thurston Howell IV]

14. Voter registration is great

But they have to show up at the polls. Much nastiness ahead as far as attempts to suppress turnout, throw out votes, etc. Still too close for comfort at this point. Don't get me wrong, I'd love a landslide!

[bushalert]

17. SHIT!!!!! If we win ALL Gore states + NH - we win?

But that means we need Iowa & Wis

[Tweed]

24. If the 2000 electoral numbers were the same, then yes.

But they aren't. Kerry would only get 264 electoral votes if he got all the states Gore got. The 2000 census realigned the numbers. If Kerry wins the Gore states + New Hampshire + Nevada, we win.

[Guaranteed]

30. ...

Gore states plus NH and NV makes 269.

:shrug:

Sorry...I'm being an EV asshole. :)

[Tweed]

18. This isn't news......

These numbers have been out there for awhile. Plus if Kerry wins all of New England, he still needs a couple of Midwest states.

[Cha]

19. Yeah, we got to take New Hampshire...

and where did Maine go last time?

It must drive higher ups in the campaign nuts to see those bogus polls ..I know it drives this supporter crazy!

[Awsi Dooger]

26. Maine voted for Gore

But not overwhelming, 49 -44.

I expected more of a tussle for Maine this year. But in '96 Clinton won it by 20 points.

[cthrumatrix]

22. screw the media.... get all your friends and neighbors to vote.....

[julialnyc]

27. could you list data

I'm looking at maps and don't quite get it

[Thurston Howell IV]

28. If Colorado approves the split electoral vote referendum, then...

The electoral vote predictor has Kerry at 284 and Bush at 247. He's shown taking all of New England (even though he lost New Hampshire last time). He's also shown taking Pennsylvania AND Florida .

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

If we go on the assumption of winning all of New England, plus the most likely of the big 3 (Pennsylvania), plus winning a state Gore didn't win last time (Nevada), Kerry still has to win Iowa and New Mexico, both of which Gore won (and Kerry is behind in New Mexico), just to come up one short -- 269.

284: current Electoral Vote Predictor
(includes Nevada for Kerry, but Bush won it last time)
-27: take out Florida,
----- (if Kerry just wins one of the big 3 (PA most likely)
257
+ 7 Iowa (Gore won it; it is very deadlocked at 47% now)
-----
264
+ 7 New Mexico (Gore won it; Kerry is slightly behind)
-----
269 Kerry is one short.

If Colorado approves the split electoral vote referendum, then he'd win under this scenario. But it's dicey -- he has to win Iowa (deadlocked), New Mexico (Kerry currently behind) and Nevada and New Hamphire (Bush won both last time, but is currently behind in both).

[Thurston Howell IV]

29. Thanks Clinton Crusader!

This little exercise helped me see how it's really a battle over 10 states:

Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida.

I think Kerry has a good shot at Ohio. I think Florida will most likely be stolen again, unless things move significantly in Kerry's direction -- in which case, he'll have a "mandate." He should be looking to win by more than a few electoral votes.

[Bush was AWOL]

32. Terry M. said the same thing today on the Ed Schultz show

He said he's not concerned and that John Kerry will comfortably win this election.

Also, Terry said that 15 million more people will vote in this election than in 2000.