Which states will they try and steal? Fuzzy math rules America.

[Bucky]

The obvious contenders are Ohio, Nevada, and Florida. I think we're out of the woods with Pennsylvania, but a well-hyped Zarqawi capture could throw that into the mix, too. One poster said Oregon is safe, but weren't the numbers there always a bit close. I know I heard about some registration irregularities there, too. And of course isn't Iowa the home of BBV's fave Senator?

Using the map from Electoral Vote.com, it looks like Bush has 220 votes without those six states.

I'm giving New Mexico to Bush since it's looking a lot like Nader is gonna throw it to Bush this time. Toss in Iowa and Nevada (Nevada's always been a long shot anyhoo) and that brings Bush up to 232 (just 38 votes short of the finish line).

That means Bush needs to take both Ohio (20) and Florida (27) to win (286-252). If he loses either of those two Kerry wins--272 if Kerry takes Ohio, 279 if Kerry takes Florida. If Kerry wins either one of these two big swinger, Bush can only only win if he gets a victory in either Wisconsin and Minnesota. That would be 276 votes for Bush (but that only works if you assume Bush also wins Iowa). Polls have been showing Wisconsin closer, but Minnesota still has the most unpredictable voters and worries me more.

If Bush loses Ohio and Iowa, but wins Florida and only one of either Minnesota and Wisconsin, then that gives him a total of 269--a tie, which will go to Bush because of the make up of the House of Representatives. What would be weird is that if the Democrats take control of the Senate and the EC tie allows the House to choose Bush, we could have a very intriguing four years of a Bush-Edwards administration.

But a more welcomer travesty of democracy would be if Bush somehow won the popular vote and Kerry still won in the Electoral College. Then the situation-ethics-inclined conservatives would suddenly want to join us in getting rid of that stoopid anachronism. They'd still be helpless to stop a Kerry administration from saving the world, however, and that's what I really want.

[Tweed]

1. If it's a tie, why would we choose Edwards to be VP?

We could choose anyone we want, not just the VP candidate. Why not go with Kerry, Durbin, Boxer, etc.?

[durablend]

2. Can you even IMAGINE a Bush/Kerry administration?

Would they even make it through a year without killing each other?

[Bucky]

4. Yep, they'd be putting calls out to Ken Starr immediately.

It'd be a GREAT shoot out.

[Bucky]

3. Nope. Constitution says Senate selects from top two EC vote getters.

That means a Cheney vs Edwards choice. I gotta believe the Democratic caucus won't be fooled again. The chance to get rid of Cheney is too precious to pass up for the sake of "unity". The Edwards lobby would have a clear advantage.

[Thrill]

5. Why can't the Dems steal the election

for once.

[happyslug]

6. Don't Forget the possibility of neutralizing the Coasts.

Remember it is the majority of electoral votes CASTED that wins the election. Thus you on;y need 270 votes to win if ALL 538 votes are casted.

Lets look at two hypos:
First another attack on NYC. Fear spreads, elections stop in every state in the North East (Including Pennsylvania and Maryland and every state north and east of them). You just eliminated 117 electoral votes, leaving 421. Bush only needs 211 votes to win. He can win if he wins all of the state leaning his way and no other state.

Second Hypo: Attack on the West Coast knocking out the Whole West coast and Hawaii (but Alaska gets to vote). That takes out 77 Electoral Votes leaving 461 Votes. Bush would need only 231 Votes to win. If he wins every state leaning his way AND takes any state with at least 11 Votes (Florida) or combination of two states that adds up to 11 (Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa with each other or Nevada for example) Bush wins.

Hypo Three: If Terror Attacks occur on BOTH coasts: You have only 348 Votes casts, Bush wins if he gets 175 votes, which he has with the Strong and weak Bush states (i.e. Bush would NOT even need the "Barely bush States").

Hopefully this win NOT occur but it is a possibility given this administration.

[dqueue]

7. California...

<tinfoil hat>
I still think this editorial by Wayne Madsen, dated July 15, 2004, seems at least feasible and well within the realm of play, all things considered...

Here's the scenario we must be all be prepared for:

If the pre-election internal tracking polls and public opinion polls show the Kerry-Edwards ticket leading in key battleground states, the Bush team will begin to implement their plan to announce an imminent terrorist alert for the West Coast for November 2, sometime during the mid afternoon Pacific Standard Time. At 2:00 PST, the polls in Kentucky and Indiana will be one hour from closing (5:00 PM EST–the polls close in Indiana and Kentucky at 6:00 PM EST). Exit polls in both states will be known to the Bush people by that time and if Kentucky (not likely Indiana) looks too close to call or leaning to Kerry-Edwards, the California plan will be implemented. A Bush problem in Kentucky at 6:00 PM EST would mean that problems could be expected in neighboring states and that plans to declare a state of emergency in California would begin in earnest at 3:00 PM PST.

The U.S. Northern Command, which has military jurisdiction over the United States, will, along with the Department of Homeland Security and Schwarzenegger's police and homeland security officials in Sacramento, declare an "imminent" terrorist threat–a RED ALERT—affecting California's major urban areas.

Although the polls in California will not be closed as a result of the declaration, the panic that sets in and the early rush hour will clog major traffic arteries and change the plans of many voters to cast their ballots after work.

That terrorist emergency declaration could be made around 5:00 PM PST and with only three hours left for voting throughout the state, a number of working class voters in urban centers will either be caught up in California's infamous freeway traffic and be too late to get to their polling places or be more concerned about their families and avoid voting altogether.

</tinfoil hat>

[dqueue]

8. kick... n/t

[Nordic]

9. Ohio. The story today about fake registrations, paid for in cocaine?

Anybody else spot that one? Rove is gonna point to that and challenge Ohio and probably several other states.

He'll tie it up in the courts till January 20, when Congress gets to pick who will be the "interim" president.

Guess who Congress will pick?