LATimes Electoral Vote - Kerry 185 - Bush 159

[A-Schwarzenegger]

FWIW.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-polldatapage,1,3925465.htmlstory

Click on the map.
They only give a state to one or the other
if it's beyond the margiun of error.
Also, you can click on a state to give a state to
one or the other and alter the EV total as you like.
LAT also has TIPP even at 45-45 in a two-man race for LV:
http://pollingreport2.com/wh2004a.htm

[npincus]

1. call me crazy, but I am worried about California

the map shows Kerry up only 9% with 11% undecided. The spread should be much wider. I have seen other polls that indicate Cali is 'soft' Kerry. WHat the hell is THAT? With all the focus given to the battlegrounds, are Dems taking California for granted? If Cali goes then we are officially f*cked. I don't believe we can assume anything anymore, including a traditionally blue state may go otherwise, when polling is so tight. I am not a naysayer- I think the Kerry campaign needs to put some focus on Cali- a quickie trip, perhaps, or send Edwards- in these last days.

[fujiyama]

2. Don't worry

about CA or NJ. They appear much closer than they are.

If you want to worry about a state, worry about IA, WI, OH, NM, or FL.

Resources - time and money, are finite, meaning it must be used wisely. I'd rather have Kerry win CA by 9 points, rather than have him lose say NM by a few hundred votes (which Gore won by 366 votes), because he wasted time in CA. It just wouldn't be worth it.

[cire4]

3. You're crazy

If California was really in play, then Bush would be advertising and campaigning here. His internal polling obviously shows that it is unwinnable. California is going to Kerry by at least 12-13 points.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

4. Don't worry about CA

There's been a lot of voter registration here and plenty of attention paid to getting out the vote.

Boxer is going to win easily over Jones, and even Arnie is playing nice with the Dems, knowing this state is pure blue.

I know the chair of the Repub party in my county, and he isn't spending any time or effort on the presidential, he is only focused on the state and local races because he knows Bush is a lost cause here.

[NightOwwl]

5. I wouldn't worry.

On a side note: I live in a very conservative area of Northern California. Two weeks before the election and I have seen 2 bumper stickers and 0, that's z-e-r-o yard signs for Bush. In 2000 they were everywhere.

[shawmut]

6. It will be much wider when those 11% decide

because we all know where most of those votes are going!

[Carla in Ca]

7. We are OK in Ca.

If repugs cared about this state, they wouldn't have let Jones run out of money. 2 more votes for Kerry tomorrow!

[npincus]

9. Reply to all above: alrighty, thank you, I feel better now

Good night, you-all.

[LeftyMom]

8. Speaking as a Californian

I don't think you need to worry about California. I see a lot more pro-Kerry or anti-* signs and stickers than pro-* ones. The * signs and stickers are usually on hugenormous Death Star SUVs plastered in militaristic statements or MormonMoover vans adorned with phony fetus pictures, so they were never in play anyhow. Remember this state was strong for Gore and is rather liberal compared to the rest of the country. Judging by the number of new voters (at poll worker training we were told that we should plan on voting absentee and eating while we work, they expect that many new in-person voters, in addition to a record number of absenteee requests.) I'd say a lot of people are chomping at the bit to vote * out.

Also, we shouldn't have the BBV issues other states do, as all the counties here have a paper ballot or printed receipt, I think. I know Sacramento county (where I am) has optical scan and a backup system for accepting paper ballots in case the scanner breaks down during the day. Honestly, my main concern is having to hand-hold seniors and technophobes through using the thing.