Five states seem competetive at this point...

[fujiyama]

At this point, it seems as though there are only 5 true toss ups at this point - IA (7), WI (10), NM (5), OH (20), and FL (27). Most news agencies will mention PA, but it's unlikely. Some will mention NH. Kerry's been consistantly leading there for a while now. Some are optimistic on this site that CO, NV, Az, MO and AR are still competetive (I hope these people are right...it'd be so great to see one of them go to the Kerry column)...but it seems, at least according to most public polls, that it'd be an uphill climb to get any of them.

This is both good and bad news for Kerry. Kerry's good news is that he has a very good chance of picking up OH and if he does that, he has to keep only WI OR IA AND NM. More good news is that NM, which was very close in '00, has a governor that can help a lot when it comes to GOTV. To Richardson, the presidential race may determine his own political future - if he can't deliver it to KErry, he may not got a lot of support to run for pres later (assuming he has the ambition).

More good news in FL - FL's demographics favor Kerry and democrats in general. Bush's support among Cuban Americans is down. Kerry is leading big among seniors and independants...

Good news in the three upper midwestern states - Of the two upper midwestern states that are most competetive (MN is somewhat competetive but I predict a Kerry win of 2-4 points), both haven't gone to a republican since '84 in Reagan's landslide reelection. Both went to Dukakis in '88.

The bad news is that FL is so damn corrupt, I'm thinkin that the term "banana republic" is an insult, because it insults South and latin American nations that have made some effort in voter reform over the years. In FL, things have possibly gotten worse in 4 years. Also, the state reelected Jeb Bush to office in '02.

Of course, this doesn't mean Kerry can carry NV, Co, Az, or AR. It's very possible he could...They just require higher efforts of turn out and GOTV.

[foo_bar]

1. why the love lost of Cuban exiles?

Suppose they know now what Cuba would look like after a US invasion?

[fujiyama]

8. kick!

:kick:

[KharmaTrain]

13. Bunnypants Cut Off Remittances

The Miami Cubans sent millions to the island every year and could travel back and forth without much trouble...not under Bunnypants. While the far right militia groups (the ones who made a fuss about Elian Gonzalez) were happy, the vast majority of Cubans weren't. Plus they have had lots of problems with Jebbie.

If you'll notice, Bunnypants keeps his Florida visits to the central and north these days.

[Guaranteed]

2. My calculations show that if Kerry gets

Minn, Oregon and PA, if he also gets Ohio then he only need 12 more EVs, which could be filled by simply IA and NM (or IA and NV).

[fujiyama]

6. Yep

I am assuming MN, OR, and PA all fall into place.

I have little doubt they will. MN, while it has definetely been close, has shown Kerry with a small, but consistant lead of somewhere between 2-5 points. If Nader couldn't flip it last time (he got 5.2%), he can't do it this time. THat's the only way Bush would win the state. It won't happen.

Same thing in OR...Nader did very strong. This time, he may not even be on the ballot. Kerry's had a consistant lead of 2-9 points. Also I heard that the Bush campaign isn't actively contesting any of the states on the west coast. This time, it truly will be the left coast. Nader won't mean anything.

PA tightened after the RNC, but once again has widened. Bush has been there over 30 times, and still has nothing to show for it. It hasn't changed a whole lot from '00.

IA, WI, and NM. First two were a matter of 5,000 votes. NM - 366 votes.

FL probably shouldn't be as close as it is (I always hate when the media says Bush won it by 537 votes - they never mention that this is the number he was CERTIFIED by, by a partisan hack). Had the election actually have been properly conducted, Gore would have won it by several hundred thousand votes. Clinton won it by around 300 thousand or so in '96. It's been trending our way in terms of presidential elections.

OH - I think this state has lost more jobs than any other. I wish it was showing as strong leads for Kerry as its neighbor to the north, but hey I won't rip on them if they go for Kerry. Hey, either way, it's not Indiana! That's a state we can all rip on!

IA and WI were a matter of 4 or 5 thousand votes. I forgot the exact margins, but that isn't much of a win. The good news is though that if you take Nader's % in WI, and add it to Gore's, you get almost the exact % that Dukakis recieved in '88. As for IA, I've heard that Gore won the state by absentee ballots (Bush actually won among those that voted on election day at the polls)...and once again the state party machine has been working hard to get those out. Last I heard had the dems with a huge margin regarding absentee ballot requests.

That's why, even myself, as a big pessimist (I went to bed early in '00 fearing Gore would lose CA - I saw a Zogby poll having him ahead by a point the night before), is cautiously optimistic. I doubt that huge numbers of Gore voters will defect. Instead we'll gain '00 Nader voters, a small number of former Bush voters, and most importantly, a lot of new voters that would be participating to help get Bush out of office. I'm not deluded - I know the rethugs made a huge effort in getting nutty fundies out, and I also know they'll do all they can to stifle turn out, especially in minorities communities.

[RummyTheDummy]

3. My scenario -- It's Ohio!

Here's how I see it going....

Kerry picks up NH and Ohio while Iowa, with all the religous nutballs, goes to Bush. That makes it Kerry 272, Bush 266.

This would be a very narrow win and I'm not sure it would be reflected in national polls showing Bush up by 3-6 points on Election day given the standard 3-4 point margin of error. Remember, almost all of the polls on election day 2000 showed Bush up by anywhere between 3 points to 9 points (Rasmussen).

[Lexingtonian]

4. I'd be a little more optimistic

It's hard to make this argument without invoking numbers, lots of numbers, but your estimation is quite conservative.

Most of the states you mention are worked out- block by block, precinct by precinct, district by district, town by town- in pretty good detail. I don't think New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, or New Mexico are toss-ups: everything in them favors Kerry now, there's a strong effort to exploit the coattails. I suspect the Bush team has not pulled out of them fully in order not to abandon vulnerable Republicans further down the ticket, mostly, and NH an NM are small and fairly cheap states- there isn't much gained by abandoning them, financially. And it's not clear how Bush's people hope to win Ohio now- except by driving the voting process to fail.

Iowa and Wisconsin are so worked up and worked over that people are going nuts there, the sides are hardened up to an extreme- the polls change glacially. I have no idea how Undecideds in either state could break for Bush given the extreme saturation- if he hasn't made the sale by now, he never will. They're Kerry's to lose.

In Florida, nobody knows. It's a contest between the Democratic turnout machinery and the Republican efforts to jam it up, really. I'd guess that one side has necessarily already won, but we'll only find out which one on November 2.

The real tossups seem to me to be Nevada, Arizona, perhaps Colorado, West Virginia, and Virginia. Bush is under 50% in all of them (maybe not Virginia- yet) and the Undecideds are not ideological, especially in the Southwest. Who wins these states depends on the turnout efforts being mounted- and I hear the Reid machine, Janet Napolitano's effort, and the Salazar brothers' are great or at least respectible. Bob Byrd has promised to see to it that Kerry carries West Virginia, so it's not going to be Bush's for lack of effort there.

[T Town Jake]

5. Ohio is the key: we win there and it's...

...ELECTION OVER. It'll be President Kerry on Jan. 20, 2005. And that's precisely what we'll see, I confidently predict.

[loyalsister]

7. Ground troops in MO are out in full force

Trying to take back the state legislature, hang on to the Gov seat, and win the state for Kerry. STL, Columbia, and KC will swing left. No Child Left Behind hurt the rural schools, so there's a chance enough voters will blame * that we can pull it off.
Noone should take anything for granted here.

[HFishbine]

9. Tip-toeing through just to whisper....

"north carolina."

[fujiyama]

12. It would be amazing

If Kerry takes a state that Clinton didn't carry either time, then that's certainly something.

I saw a poll showing Bush ahead by only 3. I also heard that dems have made huge gains in voter registration.

[HFishbine]

15. New Voter Registrations

Actually, the Dems have only a slight lead in new voter registrations, but they've added to an existing substantial advantage. Like a lot of states, this one is going to come down to turnout and, based on nothing more than my Spidey senses, I suspect Dems will out-do Repukes on the ground.


New voter registrations since Jan. 01, 2004 (as of October 16, 2004)
-------------------------------------------
167,965 new Ds
156,875 new Rs
119,095 new UAs

New Dem advantage: 670,457 (as of October 16, 2004)
Old dem advantage: 659,367 (on Jan. 01, 2004)

Net increase in advantage: 11,090

[fujiyama]

17. It's tough to say

how previous voter affiliation numbers mattered as much in the south. Many registered democrats turned republican in their voting, but never changed their registration affiliation....basically dixiecrats. I think that's why democrats may have had such a huge advantage (even before the huge registration efforts), but lost to Bush by 15% or so in '00.

However, those that registered recently are more in tune with the party as it is, and politics as they are now.

It will certainly be a huge mountain to climb in NC and I'm very happy to hear that you think it's possible.

[HFishbine]

18. I agree with your assessment

You're probably very close to the truth. After all, Bush carried NC in 2000 by 300,000 votes. What is encouraging though is not only the new registrations but the fact that Bush's support has obviously eroded here. He won in 2000 by 13 percentage points. His margin in the latest poll is only 3 points. I think it's going to be awfully damn close either way, but there's plenty of reason for Dems to be encouraged and fight hard here in these waning days.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

10. Kerry is also only 2% behind in WV

[fujiyama]

11. I heard about that

and it's very encouraging.

The reason I didn't list it as a true toss up is because I heard the campaign is pulling some resources out of there.

[HFishbine]

16. Yes indeed.

The past few days have shown a shift to Kerry in what one might call the "upper south" WVa, VA, NC and, yes, believe it, TN -- Kerry within 3 or less in each.

I won't be surprised if, as PN, MI and WI solidify for Kerry, we see his campaign try to outflank Bush in the upper south during the closing days of the campaign.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[SpiralHawk]

14. NM is on the move - I have been canvassed 4 times already

by Kerry campaign, and Move On. The state is abuzz. Polls showing Kerry either tied or just ahead.

NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D) is not going to let this one slip away through lack of effort, or through corrupted balloting. I'd bet -- at this point -- NM will go for Kerry .

[Supersedeas]

19. don't count out VA, NC, and TN - Kerry is very competitive here as well

[BamaGirl]

20. I think Va, WV, Tn, and NC

are all a real possibility too. They are running too close to count out, and we Southern Dems are pretty damned pissed. We will definitely be out in numbers voting. I personally believe the gop is going to be very surprised to see their numbers in the very red states as not as strong as polls seem to indicate. My parents are very hopefully for a Ga upset too. They say sentiment is definitely swinging the other way in north Ga.