Analysis of the campaign (uplifting)

[JohnnyCougar]

What Kerry is doing is systematically taking cards out of Rove's deck in this campaign. I believe he let the Smear Boaters get out of hand on purpose to make as big an issue out of it as he could, just so everyone heard about it right away. Then, after it got out of control, they debunked it by drawing out criticism from even Republicans. By letting it get out of control, it forced everyone who knew the truth about the subject to come out of the woodwork, and create a large scale debunking. Now, most people have had enough of the Swift Boat Liars, and have tuned their message out. Swift Boat Liars: NEUTRALIZED.

Before the debates, Kerry assailed Bush on his Iraq policy. Reports were coming in from all areas that the Iraq war was not going well. Kerry's wonderful press conference, as well as leaked reports from the CIA turned that around really quick. Now, Bush won't bring up Iraq. Every time he mentions it, it invokes reports of failure. Bush's leadership in Iraq: NEUTRALIZED.

Next, Kerry let the flip-flop attacks keep coming and coming. I almost wonder if he said the "I voted for it before I voted against it" thing on purpose. As ridiculous as the smear was, the attacks on phony grounds just kept coming and coming. The Republicans wasted millions of dollars on those attacks, and Kerry neutralized them for free: at the debates. After Kerry's steadfast debate performance, no one believed that meme anymore. Flip-flop label: NEUTRALIZED

The Republicans have been using the gay marriage thing for years to energize their base and as a wedge issue. Edwards mentioned it in the VP debates as a primer. He did it smoothly, though, and made it sound a little bit genuine. Cheney was wise to say "Thank You" and end the discussion there. When Kerry mentioned it, he did it in a way that made it sound out of line. He used the word "lesbian" instead of gay, and he used it in a context that would surely generate controversy. And generate controversy it did. Do you think the Republicans will be using gay marriage as a wedge issue anymore this election? I don't think so. If the bring it up again, THEY will look like the mean, bigoted, insensitive hate-mongers that they are. Gay marriage: NEUTRALIZED.

That leaves basically two issues in which Bush can use now: Abortion and War on Terror. The rest (economy, health care, education) are in Kerry's bag already. I suspect there is nothing they can do about Abortion. Those who have made up their minds have made up their minds already. Anything short of evidence that Laura got an abortion will not do anything there.

The last phase, starting today, will be to take out Bush's authority on the War on Terror. Gore's speech was a prelude to Kerry's today. I will bet any money he will bring up the LA Times article about the CIA report saying Bush ignored the warnings of 9/11. Bush will be wrecked. We already have Bob Grahm's book out to back it up, and we have F9/11 to energize and inform the base on this one. After today, the base will have the news media to back up what they have been trying to say all along. After Kerry's attacks today, everyone will want a copy of F9/11, to see what Michael Moore and Kerry are talking about. If there is a CIA report questioning the same thing Michael Moore is questioning, it lends much more credibility to Moore's documentary. Republicans will want to see it. It is only a matter of time before Kerry neutralizes this last and final card in Bush's deck. There will be no terror alerts before election day, because they will make people more likely to vote for Kerry.

With all of Bush's cards neutralized, Kerry will just have to be himself. He can talk about the bad economy, our lack of allies, and the health care crisis, and people will listen, because they are real problems that hit home with every American. FluGate, the possible draft, and John Edwards will continue to influence the women who decide late. Record breaking GOTV efforts will cream Bush at the polls. Bush will have nothing to say at all. He will continue to paint Kerry as "liberal," but if that's all he has, he will go down in flames. Bush can't even bring up the flawed oil-for-food program because Halliburton was busted dealing with them under the table.

On election day, the public will make their decision to vote for a bold, strong leader, or an empty shell. The decision will be easy.

JohnnyCougar

[ogradda]

1. you should have posted this when more people

were online to read it. it's awesome :)

[JohnnyCougar]

3. I was gonna kick it in the morning!

but you or anyone can at your leisure!

Now for some sleep! :boring:

[JohnnyCougar]

6. It's morning!

:kick:

[Old and In the Way]

2. Very good indeed!

I'm pretty sure we are going to get some really heavy stuff getting exposed before 11/2....I'm thinking BCCI and GWB's $25MM from them.

[chimpymustgo]

4. Good stuff.

nt

[secular_warrior]

5. Wow. This is excellent !

Pundits get paid lots of money and aren't half as cogent as this is !

:yourock:

We'll see how this all plays out, but I've suspected for a while that Kerry's favorite strategy now and always has been "rope-a-dope", i.e. he sits back, draws out the hostile fire and lets his enemies defeat themselves. Kerry did this in the Dem primaries as well. It seems he allows his opponents to pummel him early so that charges can be refuted over time and the expectations lowered. Then he steps in at the end with little-to-no opposition, easily beating expectations.

[kaitykaity]

7. Nominated.

You should submit this to the articles feature here
at DU. It's very good.

[JohnnyCougar]

8. How does one do that?

[kaitykaity]

9. Click here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/writing.html

Good luck.

[realcountrymusic]

10. Uplifting but Panglossian

I think saying Iraq has been "neutralized" as an issue -- that Bush can't even "bring it up" -- just isn't true. Bush is still hammering at it and it is still a wedge issue that is solid with his base. Kerry's biggest weakness in the polls is on the "commander in chief" question, and Iraq is where Bush built this strength. We know it's a fuckup, but apparently many Americans still think it was worth it.

Swiftvets -- can't believe the K/E campaign "let it get out of control." They suffered terrible damage -- the loss of post-convention momentum -- from that attack, and they responded too sluggishly and without message discipline for this to have been a Rove-style master strategy. They recovered well, but I don't think the SwiftVet threat has been "neutralized." It cost K/E serious momentum and absolute levels of support among veterans, at a minimum. And if the SwiftVets are discredited, why do we care what Sinclair does with "Stolen Honor?"

I like your spirit, but disagree with the optimism of your analysis. I think we can win this, but only by never underestimating the enemy.

RCM

[JohnnyCougar]

11. With regards to Iraq..

The view that Iraq was worth getting into is now almost dead even. A few polls have shown a slim majority saying it was a mistake. The majority of people believe that things are not going well, and Bush failed to plan properly. The only reason people still support his handling of Iraq is that they still view him as a good leader. 9/11 has more to do with this than Iraq. I guaruntee that if Bush's 9/11 advantage is neutralized, his Iraq numbers will go way down. Americans only think it was worth it because they still want to support Bush because he was our leader on 9/11.

As far as the Swiftvets, polls have shown that upwards of 80% of the population think the ads are distracting (at least in Wisconsin, where the ads started). Anyone taken in by their initial shock value has been habituated to the Swiftboat claims, and they have lost their original meaning. If Rove was able to "slip it under the radar" of most people (the inital purchace was for only three states), the rest of the population wouldn't have heard much about it. It seems their intent was to start small (3 states) and build the "treasonous Kery" argument up to a climax with the Sinclair broadcast. By letting it get out of control, the climax already happened, and now the swift boaters' calims are falling on deaf ears. The fact that the swift boaters went through a nationwide debunking right away makes their repeated attempts to smear Kerry even more in vain.

I am not too worried about the upcoming Sinclair broadcast, other than it influencing the truly stupid. And I think Kerry will win handily in November.

[realcountrymusic]

13. Some responses

"The view that Iraq was worth getting into is now almost dead even."

Unfortunately, so are the polls. And that is our problem. I'm not saying Iraq is a winner for Bush, just that we can't take for granted that we've won this argument.

"The majority of people believe that things are not going well, and Bush failed to plan properly."

That has to translate into a belief that Kerry would do better, which (according to polls, of course) has not happened. Again, no evidence of a brilliant Kerry strategy to me.

"The only reason people still support his handling of Iraq is that they still view him as a good leader."

Our single biggest obstacle is this amazing fiction, which the media whores continue to shill constantly. We're losing the war, not getting the terrorists, are a divided nation, and have lost respect around the world. But somehow Bush is still a "good leader." If the Kerry campaign were as brilliantly managed as the O.P. implied, this disconnect would have sunk in.

"By letting it get out of control, the climax already happened, and now the swift boaters' claims are falling on deaf ears. "

I certainly hope so. The problem again is with the national media, which decided this was a winner for their obvious goal of keeping the race close and eventually getting Bush back into the white house to maintain their corporate impunity. If they decide "Stolen Honor" is a major story for two or three news cycles, and start running clips of it 24/7 and treating swifties as legitimate parties to a debate about Kerry's leadership qualities again we will lose ground on the single most important issue, discussed above: Kerry's suitability to replace a failed commander in chief.

Don't get me wrong. I think the K/E campaign has done a lot of things right, and has handled smears, an obviously hostile media, and an utterly evil GOP machine with skill and real courage. I just don't see how all our various setbacks and frustrations with the way we've arrived at a deadlocked race with less than 2 weeks to go can be optimistically chalked up to a brilliant master strategy that anticipated all the crap that's been thrown at us. Kerry's debate performance alone should have him up 10 points in the polls. He gave his all, and except for a few minor screw-ups, he delivered a solid impression. If he had done any less, he'd be 10 points behind right now. His campaign was right to focus on the debates and the post-debate spin cycle (but should have seen the danger in the Mary Cheney remark, dammit -- you could tell after Edwards tried it that it was both not necessary and risky). All I'm saying is that yes, it's good to be optimistic and see the glass as half full, but we are up against both an evil and cunning opponent with bottomless resources and no scruples and an implacably hostile media establishment that won't speak truth to power, or even let our message go out without backbiting commentary. So it's fine to be optimistic, hopeful, revved up, etc. I don't think it's a good idea to be too confident, or to hope (as many are doing today on other threads) that Kerry has an "October surprise" that will put it in the bag while Rove doesn't have something to match it or trump it. We will win this only with concerted GOTV and an absolutely fired up base, which needs to be optimistic enough to think we *can* win it, but not over-confident.

It's a matter of emphasis, I guess. I appreciate your points.

RCM

[JohnnyCougar]

14. Iraq used to be a winner for Bush

We have made much progress in that regard. I was just saying it was one of the cards Bush counted on holding, and it has been neutralized. I think in the next two weeks, we will see some positive stuff about Kerry come out. I wanna se a dateline special about BCCI and such. But yes, up until now, Kerry hasn't made as much of a case as he could for himself.

[Supersedeas]

12. Well Done, JohnnyC