Good Morning Reality Based Community!

[rjbny62]

The reality is that Kerry has the MO and * has really got to be sweating it now.

Here is the reality in Ohio courtesy of MysteryPollster. Can * win without OH?

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Now, let's look at the Ohio numbers and see how well these principles apply. The following table shows the presidential vote (with Nader included) on the four polls released today. George Bush's percentage is remarkably, almost impossibly consistent: 47%, 47%, 47, , 47% and 46%. All of the variation is between the Kerry, Nader and undecided. That is the incumbent rule in action.

Nader
Ohio Bush Kerry Other Und
ABC News 47% 50% 2% 1%
SurveyUSA 47% 49% 2% 1%
Rasmussen Reports 47% 47% 3% 2%
Fox/Opinion Dynamics 47% 45% 3% 5%
Ohio Poll 46% 48% 1% 5%

Looking back at the national Fox polls over the course of the year and notice that their undecided percentage is always higher. This difference is almost certainly about the text and structure of the vote question (as well as how the pollsters train their interviewers to ask it). The ABC News Poll pushes the initially undecided to say, "which candidate are you leaning toward?" Fox/Opinion Dynamics and Ohio Poll questions do not. The Ohio Poll is the only one that does not offer Ralph Nader as a choice. The surveys conducted by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen used a recorded voice and automated computer response system rather than an interviewer in a way that arguably simulates the solitary decision making of the voting booth (Survey USA also uses a subtle push that involves pausing briefly before presenting the undecided option: "For Bush, press 1, for Kerry press 2, for Nader press 3....< pause> if you are undecided press 4").

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http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/ohio.html

see discussion on KOS
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/20/7360/7239

[pansypoo53219]

1. but but but

can america handle reality?
reality is hard.