Electoral-vote.com predicts Kerry win: K-311, B-227

[Poiuyt]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/

This predictive map was made using the following assumptions.

- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- If Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)

[batchdem04]

1. its nice...

however, a win in October means nothing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. You're Half Right...

Enthusiasm is a precious commodity....


However elections are dynamic not static...

[whirlygigspin]

3. predictions

as we are throwing up numbers randomly, I'll say Kerry 320

I think *Bush will steal Wisconsin but lose Arizona and Tennesee.

[bookman]

4. Subtract Florida

That's what I so when I look at these things. Jeb will do anything to fix it for his big brother.

[Anaxamander]

5. Not this year

Mark my words and hold me to this: Florida will be blue on November 2.

[Arancaytar]

6. New Mexico went to Strong Kerry all of a sudden,

And a lot of states switched in the last polls, seemingly. The pendulum swings towards Kerry again, just like it did toward Bush a week or two ago.

[ronnykmarshall]

10. Nevada is a see-saw

The other day it was weak Kerry now it's weak Bush??? :wtf:

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

12. How can you be sure sure when crooked Jeb Bush

is governor? What safe guards are in place to prevent the theft of Florida's electoral votes for a second time? Would our supreme court vote W in for a second time if given the chance? I'm really unsure about Florida.

This was meant as a reply to post number 5, sorry.

[OneBlueSky]

7. I agree, for two reasons . . .

first, they will do everything in their power to suppress Democratic votes (they're already doing it); and

second, no matter what the actual vote is, the BushCo touchscreen voting machines will report a win for Jebbie's brother . . .

the good news, of course, is that subtracting Florida still equals a Kerry win . . . unless they're equally successful in committing election fraud in other states . . .

[shivaji]

8. Kerry wins in a landslide 322:216

That would be a great morning to wake up to on Nov 3rd.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

9. That assumes we're going to bed on November 2nd!

[TruthIsAll]

11. Seems they like the Election Model assumptions:

Iv'e been saying it for months: Kerry wins the undecided.

Check out what happens if he gets 50%,55%,60% (base case), 67%, 75%

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[NDFan]

13. Well...

It's common knowledge that undecideds tend to break for the challenger in elections.

[DrFunkenstein]

14. Nader Support Reconfigured For Penitent Greens

From getting nearly 3% last time around, he's down to 1%. If you look, though, this guy had Nader drawing 2% yesterday. Don't know what difference that makes electorally.