New Zogby is up. Good news.

[requiem99]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

Kerry is WAY WAY up in the states he is up, and Bush is barely holding onto states he has.

[lancdem]

1. I posted that last night

None of Bush's leads are outside the MOE.

[NDFan]

2. ...

Wow, not very comforting for me. It scares me to see Florida and Ohio RED (and not even pink!). Still, they're both within the MOE... I think?

[lancdem]

7. Other Ohio polls have Kerry up in Ohio

Zogby has Bush up in Fla. by just 1.2 percent. I think Kerry is at least tied there, too. Remember, undecideds go to the challenger, so you can add at least a couple of points to his total in the Bush states, putting him over the top in some.

BTW, Zogby doesn't have a pink category. Any state Bush is leading in, even if it's .1 percent, is red.

[rjbny62]

11. good news about OH

all recent polls

>>>>>>

Now, let's look at the Ohio numbers and see how well these principles apply. The following table shows the presidential vote (with Nader included) on the four polls released today. George Bush's percentage is remarkably, almost impossibly consistent: 47%, 47%, 47, , 47% and 46%. All of the variation is between the Kerry, Nader and undecided. That is the incumbent rule in action.

Nader
Ohio Bush Kerry Other Und
ABC News 47% 50% 2% 1%
SurveyUSA 47% 49% 2% 1%
Rasmussen Reports 47% 47% 3% 2%
Fox/Opinion Dynamics 47% 45% 3% 5%
Ohio Poll 46% 48% 1% 5%

Looking back at the national Fox polls over the course of the year and notice that their undecided percentage is always higher. This difference is almost certainly about the text and structure of the vote question (as well as how the pollsters train their interviewers to ask it). The ABC News Poll pushes the initially undecided to say, "which candidate are you leaning toward?" Fox/Opinion Dynamics and Ohio Poll questions do not. The Ohio Poll is the only one that does not offer Ralph Nader as a choice. The surveys conducted by SurveyUSA and Rasmussen used a recorded voice and automated computer response system rather than an interviewer in a way that arguably simulates the solitary decision making of the voting booth (Survey USA also uses a subtle push that involves pausing briefly before presenting the undecided option: "For Bush, press 1, for Kerry press 2, for Nader press 3....< pause> if you are undecided press 4").

>>>>>>>

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/10/ohio.html

see discussion on KOS
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/20/7360/7239

[VolcanoJen]

35. The University of Cincinnati/The Ohio Poll is especially significant.

The last poll taken by UC/The Ohio Poll, in September, had Bush with 54% and Kerry with 43%. This newest poll is a statistical dead heat, but it shows that the momentum is with Kerry in Ohio!

http://www.newsnet5.com/politics/3835488/detail.html

Excerpt:

President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry are locked in a statistical dead heat in Ohio with 48 percent of likely voters for Kerry and 46 percent for Bush, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The Ohio Poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

<snip>

The poll surveyed 757 likely voters statewide by telephone from Oct. 11 through Sunday.

The result was nearly identical to an Ohio Poll finding in August conducted after the Democratic National Convention, poll director Eric Rademacher said.

Other statewide polls taken before the presidential debates have shown Bush with a lead in Ohio. The last Ohio Poll, taken in September, showed Bush with an 11-point lead.

In the September poll, Bush had 54 percent of the vote and Kerry had 43 percent. In August, Kerry had 48 percent of the vote while Bush had 46 percent.

[Beetwasher]

3. Those OH Numbers Are The Lowest I've Seen Lately

Though not bad, there's been a slew of others w/ Kerry leading...

WI is very good news, I've been concerned about the numbers I've been seeing there...

AR can go blue now that the Big Dog is back!!!

[expatriot]

4. We need the Big DAWG to GOTV in Arkansas... wow we are close there

[dolstein]

5. How is Bush's strongest performance in months "good news"?

Did you even bother to read the overview? I'll save you the trouble. Here's the first sentence:

<<With two weeks left until Election Day, President Bush posted his best performance since June in key battleground states, according to the latest Zogby Poll.>>

[BUSHOUT]

12. Did you read what he posted?

"Kerry is WAY WAY up in the states he is up, and Bush is barely holding onto states he has."

Look at the leads. Just because Bush has some slim margins in more states than before means nothing.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

24. Did you follow the link?

Two weeks ago (look at the October 6 map), Kerry was leading in thirteen of the sixteen Battleground States. Now he's leading in only only nine of them. That means he's lost ground in four key states, including Ohio and Florida. Do the math and try to figure out how we win without one or the other. Increasing the lead in states where he's already ahead nets JK a grand total of zero - count 'em, ZERO - additional electoral votes.

[lancdem]

14. It is good news. Read past the first sentence

Kerry leads in 9 states, 6 outside the margin or error. Bush leads in 7, NONE outside the margin of error. And those are all red states to begin with. An incumbent who has failed to sew up that many states he won in the previous election is an incumbent in trouble.

With undecideds going to the challenger, Kerry would have a chance to win a good number of those red battleground states Bush has not yet put away.

[Jasper 91]

30. Fear ye not .

General Election Cattle Call, October 19
Posted by Chris Bowers
Chris's National Popular Vote Projection
Kerry 50.0
Bush 48.0
Other 2.0
Polls Included: ABC LV, Rasmussen, TIPP 2-Way and Zogby
(Methodology)

Incumbent Rule
Undecideds Remaining: 5.1%
Bush leads 47.0-45.9 without undecideds allocated.

Chris's Electoral Projection
Kerry: 316, 222 solid
Bush: 222, 69 solid
States changing hands from 2000: FL, NV, NH and OH to Kerry


State by State
AZ: Bush +3.4
AR: Bush +5.2
CO: Bush +3.7
FL: Kerry +1.2
IA: Kerry +2.1
ME, State: Kerry +4.9
ME, CD-2: Kerry +2.7
MI: Kerry +7.9
MN: Kerry +3.2
MO: Bush +1.4
NV: Kerry +0.3
NH: Kerry +6.1
NM: Kerry +1.8
NC: Bush +3.1
OH: Kerry +1.2
OR: Kerry +5.2
PA: Kerry +6.5
VA: Bush +4.1
WA: Kerry +7.4
WV: Bush +4.3
WI: Kerry +2.3

Kerry has taken the lead according to every single electoral vote predictor that is updated daily. Bush is being propped up by the ABC tracking poll showing him at 50. It sure is sweet to see Kerry’s solid states pass Bush’s total states.

Source:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/

[maxsolomon]

6. florida, ohio, and missouri

wake the hell up.

love, the state of washington (which was NEVER a 'battleground').

[Modem Butterfly]

8. Well, if * wins the popular vote and Kerry wins the EC

We can all spend the next four years telling the repugs to get over it!

[oldsneakers]

9. I've seen better news

Looks about the same as the last weeks polls-neither good or bad

[DemocracyInaction]

10. We were going over this this a.m.

Take a look at MO and Arkansas, etc. These are still very much in play.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

13. This is NOT good news...

I take every poll with a grain of salt (or two or three), but if you read the text it says that this is Bush's best showing in months. Click on the October 6 button to see that Bush has picked up four states. Not that any poll is going to be perfect -- and I'm not even about to panic over this -- but these results aren't in our favor.

[lancdem]

16. Please read the details. Bush's leads are tiny, while Kerry's are bigger

Not a single one of Bush's leads is outside the margin of error; six of Kerry's are. Kerry has sewn up way more blue battleground states than Bush has red battleground states, meaning Bush has many more vulnerable states to defend. How is that bad news?

[Beetwasher]

17. Read Post #14, You're Wrong

n/t

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

25. Read Post #24, I Don't Think So

n/t

[Beetwasher]

26. Obviously You Don't Think So, And You're Wrong

Is this amazing news? No. Is it good news? Yes. Kerry's lead is solidified in all the Blue battlegrounds and he's highly competitive and within MOE in ALL of the red battlegrounds. Since he needs to pick up only ONE OF THOSE STATES to win the election, that's good news unless your a Bush supporter. End of story.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

28. From the analysis...

You have to scroll down through the Overview and click through...

"Here's the math:

"In analyzing Zogby's results we begin by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battleground poll will vote for the same political party this November as they did in the 2000 election. Therefore, Mr. Bush begins with 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry with 172. A candidate needs 270 votes to win.

"Next, we add in the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margin or error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry's nine states have 92 electoral votes, while Mr. Bush's seven control 85. Adding up the votes from battleground and nonbattleground states, Mr. Bush would win by a slim 274-264."

Now here's the analysis from October 6:

"If the results on Election Day matched Zobgy's numbers, Mr. Kerry would win. Here's how:

"To analyze Zogby's results, we begin by assuming that the District of Columbia and the 34 states that aren't in the battleground poll will vote for the same political party this November as they did in the 2000 election. Thus, Mr. Bush starts with 189 electoral votes and Mr. Kerry with 172. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

"To those numbers, we add the electoral votes from the latest poll, regardless of the margins of error or the spread between the candidates. Mr. Kerry's 13 states have 150 electoral votes, while Mr. Bush's three have 27 votes. The bottom line: Mr. Kerry would have 322 electoral votes and the president would have 216."

Got it? Based on the data they're reporting today, Bush wins. We're left with hoping that there's enough wiggle room in the "Margin of Error" for us to steal one state away. Today's numbers are demonstrably worse than they were two weeks ago. And I'll say it again, doing better in a state where you were already winning doesn't earn you and style points, much less electoral votes.

[Beetwasher]

29. Oy Vey, You Don't Get It Do You?

I read the analysis. The point is that ALL the red states are in KERRY's reach and essentially DEAD HEATS, yet Zogby is calling every marginal lead for Bush, even if it's less than a point (I'm not faulting him, it's just the way he does it). If he takes ONE of those states, which is VERY VERY possible he wins the election. The Blue states are steadily moving OUT of Bush's reach if they are not already out of his reach. Bush is NOT competetive or threatening Kerry at all in any of those states according to these numbers. Kerry IS threatening Bush in ALL of the red states.

The fact is Kerry is doing much much better in those red states that went to Bush by much more sizeable margins in 2000 AND Kerry is going to get the bulk of the undecideds. Those red states even when Kerry was slightly ahead in some of them (and he STILL is depending on the poll you look at, like OH for instance) have been dead heats, so it's not surprising that Bush might be ahead, BARELY, a week or two later, it's statistical noise that happens in a dead heat. This poll is good news, if you want to paint it as bad news it's because you WANT it to be bad news.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

33. Last attempt at logic

Yes. All the red states are within Kerry's reach. Two weeks ago, all the reds states were within Kerry's reach. This week, however, he's fallen behind in four of the states where he had been leading. And when you look at the state-by-state numbers, Kerry support has eroded in ten of the sixteen Battleground States. And West Virginia is the only red state where Kerry improved since the beginning of the month. The brutal calculus is that we've got to take away a state larger than New Hampshire if we want to win this time.

That being said, I don't think that Kerry is losing in Ohio (Zogby is one of only two polls that currently have him behind) and I think Florida and Arkansas might be ripe. I won't be surprised if Kerry gets well north of 300 electoral votes. You just can't come to that conclusion from the data you're seeing here.

[Beetwasher]

37. Kerry Didn't "Fall Behind" In Any Of Those States

Statistically speaking. They were dead heats when he was marginally ahead, and they are dead heats now that he's marginally behind, especially since it's all w/ in MOE. That's what you're failing to grasp. Logic has nothing to do with it, it's statistics. Zogby's giving Arkansas to Bush even though the lead is 1.3 points. That "lead" is irrelevant. Get it? It's statistical noise in races that are DEAD HEATS. Kerry took NH from Bush already and I expect him to take at the very least one more of those red states and win the election.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

40. You're right!

Of course! How could I have not seen it before?!

Walks away, shaking head...

[Beetwasher]

41. Maybe You Should Learn Something About Statistics

and then you would indeed know that I am right. If Kerry was down in a state by a point and then up by 1.3 points, I would not call the state for Kerry or claim he was "pulling ahead". It would still be a dead heat as far as I was concerned and as far as statisticians are concerned. Zogby's calling any lead, (even statistically insignificant ones as most of the red states are), a lead and giving the EV's to the candidates based on that, and that's his perogative, but it gives people who don't understand statistics the wrong impression, IMO. You are a case in point as to that.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

44. I don't know anything about statistics, you're right

Fifteen years of financial analysis, but I don't know anything about statistics.

You're so absolutely right. I don't know anything at all and probably never did.

Walks away, laughing...

[Beetwasher]

45. And I'm The Queen Of England

Whatever :shrug:

If what you say is true, then your comments are mind boggling if you think those leads are statistically significant enough to call the states anything other than dead heats. Many if not most other polling orgs would label them as toss ups w/ those numbers and not assign the EV's. Overall I like Zogby, but I disagree w/ him doing this.

My advice to you is to stay in finance and stay away from analyzing polls. Obviously your statistical "knowledge" doesn't translate well. Keep walking before you make yourself look any more foolish.

[tritsofme]

31. This is not even news

Zogby Interactive polls are worthless.

[Kolesar]

34. Best answer yet

I was rather concerned that Bush was polling 50% in some states like Ohio. According to the 50% rule, that would carry him on to winning Ohio.

[Mizmoon]

15. Wasn't everyone screaming about repub oversampling?

Has that changed? Because if they are still being oversampled, then this is even better than it looks.

[Zero Gravitas]

19. GOP oversampling was with Gallup

not Zogby. Gallup was way off in 2000, Zogby was close to the correct answer.

[tritsofme]

32. I don't know how you could say they were "way off"

Zogby's final poll was Gore 48% Bush 46% Nader 5%

Gallup's final poll was Bush 48% Gore 46% Nader 4%

The actual result was Gore 48% Bush 48% Nader 3%

In an election in which 100 million people voted, and only 500,000 votes seperated the two candidates, how can you claim one was much more accurate than the other?

[Zero Gravitas]

36. hmmm

I was thinking of Gallup's poll a few days earlier that had Bush 53, Gore 39. I stand corrected.

[Zero Gravitas]

18. Not good news

Electoral college analysis gives 274-264 for Bush. A big lead in states that Gore won in 2000 only increases the likely hood that if Kerry looses the Electoral College narrowlyu, he may, like Gore, still win the popular vote.

Good news would be Bush loosing in FL or OH.

[lancdem]

22. OK, let me try this again

Zogby has Bush with 274 EVs because he's giving the candidates every state they have even the tiniest lead in. With undecideds going to the challenger, Kerry would win some of the states Bush has narrow leads in. BTW, Zogby previous polls had Bush up in Ohio by bigger margins.

[ButterflyBlood]

20. Are these the "Zogby Interactive" online polls?

Those aren't worth a grain of salt.

[lancdem]

23. Yes

To be honest, I think this particular poll is generally in line with other EV estimates. Some of his earlier ones, frankly, were giving states to Kerry, like Tennessee, Arkansas and Missouri, that he was certainly not ahead in, even if the state may have been competitive.

[Roland99]

21. Bush only up 2.5% in TN?? And 2.8% in WV???

WOW

[deadmessengers]

27. Kerry needs one more takeaway

...to put this thing in the bag. Good news is, there are lots of states on the menu to choose from, and a couple that aren't (Colorado & NC aren't battleground states, but are closer than anyone expected them to be)

[VOX]

38. This is good. I'd like to see Kerry gain more in Florida and/or Ohio...

He will most likely need at least one of these to take it on Nov. 2.

:kick:

[West Coast Democrat]

39. Zogby should poll Colorado

[andyhappy]

42. F' the polls

Man, I am so sick of hearing about polls!

Power to the people! Bush is going to lose this election in a landslide!

BELIEVE!

[Czolgosz]

43. We knew FL would be close, but KKKarl has got to be freaking

about AR (1.3%), TN (2.5%), WV (2.8%), and MO (3.1%). You know KKK expected to have these states locked, but they are free falling away from *. Enjoy the polls today, but don't put any real stock in them -- they will flip back and forth between today and Nov. 2 when we kick their asses back to the ranch.