Extremely wonky turnout post for Dallas & my precinct.

[crispini]

I don't know why I did this. Perhaps because the data was there, and I could. Or, to prove my complete wonkitude, and have some fun with the Dalcoelections website. Reposted from the Texas forum because no one but us Texans will read it there. :D

In 2000, approximately 617,000 (and some change) people in Dallas county voted in the Presidential election.

Conventional wisdom says that about 30% of the electorate votes early where they can. I don't remember where I read this, I'm sure it was somewhere on here.

The turnout for the first two days in Dallas County, plus absentee ballots, is at 64,656. Interestingly, the total went UP from Monday to Tuesday by 2,000 votes.

Assumming that the turnout stays constant at an average of 20,000 voters/day for the 12 days of early voting (which it won't, ok, it will vary, but it's a guess), this nets us 240,000 voters. (YES, it's a crappy assumption to make, having just two data points, but I'm making it for fun.)

Assuming that the 30% rule holds true, that would mean approximately an 800,000 person turnout, total, for Dallas County for this election.

The only thing I can't figure out from the website is how many voters are registered right now. As of 2000 there were 1,248,325 registered, but I know some were dropped off the rolls due to inactivity after that, and I know there were a LOT registered right up to the last minute. Assuming that the registration stays approximately the same as 2000, what with the drops and the adds, that's approximately a 64% voter turn out. 2000's turnout was 49%, so that's a big increase!


And here's the interesting part, my precinct. In 2000 we had a whopping 293 voters turn out for a 28% rate. Pukey I know.

We have ALREADY gotten 203 voters out in the FIRST TWO DAYS OF ABSENTEE VOTING!

And we are SO BLUE in my neighborhood, you would not believe.


Ok, you are now returned to your regularly scheduled normality. :evilgrin: