Here's a Kerry EV win without Ohio and Florida

[NewYorkerfromMass]

He takes all the Gore states plus Arkansas and New Hampshire. I added Ark. after I saw the Zogby battleground numbers.

From what I have seen NH is a lock, so if Kerry wins the barnburners in Wisconsin and Iowa (and I am certain he will), and they don't steal New Mexico, then you can see how easily Kerry can win without Ohio and Florida. (although I firmly believe we will win Florida and Ohio I have done this exercise for the sake of exploring the alternative possibilities)

Close contests in Nevada and Colorado also must be making the Bush cabal nervous, not to mention Missouri, Tennesee, Virginia and NC.



BOTTOM LINE: GET OUT THE VOTE!

edited to add my own belief of the expected outcome in Florida and Ohio

[tomfodw]

1. He's gotta have Ohio

I can't see him getting Arkansas, sorry

[Harlan James]

4. Agreed.

Kerry is trending very strongly there.

When Ohio is announced as having gone for Kerry on 11/2, that is when I pop open the champagne bottle.

[ollie3]

6. Arkansas is just one possibility....

Others would be MO, VA, NC, CO, WVa. All of these states are close, very close. Put it another way--Bush has to win ALL of them, we just need one.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. That's my point. The holes in Bush's dike are numerous and

scattered and all at critical breaking points. Ours are much, much more solid.
Of course, this is all based on the polling data we have been seeing, and it could all be way off one way or the other, so let's just concentrate on the GOTV, especially you people in those unexpected battlegrounds like Virginia!!!

[Warren DeMontague]

18. Don't forget Nevada as a possibility.. Closer than CO I suspect.

n/t

[SammyWinstonJack]

28. My oldest son lives in Las Vegas

He is voting for Kerry btw. Anyway since I have already voted and I have a free ticket on Southwest and a place to stay, I will be going to NV to do all I can to GOTV.

[Warren DeMontague]

29. We're going next weekend.

Woo-hoo!

[SammyWinstonJack]

34. Very cool!

That is when I will be there!

[July]

38. If it's NH and NV, we're one vote short. nt

[amandabeech]

23. In today's Zogby poll, Arkansas didn't look too bad.

Arkansans might react to the sight of Clinton getting up from his death bed to come down and campaign for Kerry/Edwards.

Clinton will then have four years to recover in peace, literally.

[Kukesa]

32. And that's what we're doing here in this Buckeye state,

we're working our tails off to turn our state BLUE.

Last night in Dayton, Sen. Kerry related what a woman said to him at another Ohio rally -- "we've got your back."

And that we do, that we do.

Kerry On!

[TomClash]

2. That's exactly why Bill has been after JFK to campaign more in Arkansas nt

[Beetwasher]

3. Yup, I've Made The Same Point Before

n/t

[movonne]

5. What happen to Nevada???

[ollie3]

7. NV is a Gore state;....

in the scenario above, Kerry needs NV anyway.

[ollie3]

8. Bill Clinton and Wes Clark are both from Arkansas....

Hopefully they can push Kerry over the top

[Kathleen04]

10. NV isn't a Gore state

but Clinton won it once...

[The_Counsel]

17. Actually, Bush Won Nevada in 2000; By Five Points, I Believe...

Gore only carried four states west of Minnesota: New Mexico, California, Oregon and Washington.

And New Mexico only went to Gore because there was a big snowstorm on Election Day, and only Dem-leaning Alberquerque was really prepared for it...

[Beetwasher]

19. Nope, Bush Took Nevada in 2000

That's just not true...

[On the Road]

24. Nevada Instead of Arkansas Produces a Tie

which means a Bush win in Congress. Same with West Virginia.

Of course, if Colorado decides to split its electoral vote things could move the winning vote to Kerry.

But I agree -- Kerry looks good in Ohio.

[onehandle]

9. Possible, but unlikely. Florida and/or Ohio plus Penn. is the game. nt

[shockingelk]

11. Arkansas -

Arkansas has a heterosexual superiority ballot measure. I would count on NV more than Arkansas. That would make it a tie.

[liberalpragmatist]

12. Kerry can win without Ohio or Florida, but I'm skeptical Arkansas will do

Kerry COULD win there, but I just don't view it as being as likely.

I see a more likely combination being NH + Nevada + Colorado.

However, the truth is I'm getting a little worried - Kerry has abandoned a lot of "swing" states - Missouri, Arkansas (although they are now running a Clark ad there according to The Note), Virginia, NC, Tennessee, and WV. All lean slightly to Bush, but forcing him to compete there would shore up support in the upper midwest (Iowa, Wisconsin esp.) and also leave us a good cushion. As it turns out, although this didn't use to be true, Bush actually has a better chance of losing Ohio and still winning the election if he carries Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Mexico, where's he been polling ahead or right with Kerry in most polls.

[Griblit]

27. Incumbents have always been re-elected if they score Ohio

I heard a news story declaring that historically incumbents keep the Presidency if they win Ohio- let's hope the polls there are not getting a huge number of young voters that only use cell phones and intend to vote for Kerry!!!

[jefferson_dem]

14. Could i get a link to that interactive e.v. map? Lost it in my bookmarks.

Thanks!

[apnu]

22. Here's an archive of JE's old map from the primaries.

http://apnu.runswithscissors.com/map/

I don't have a bookmark for a better one, sorry.

[liberalpragmatist]

25. I like this one better

http://www.opinionjournal.com/ecc/calculator.htm

Click once to turn a state red, two to turn it blue, 3 to turn it tossup - well, you'll figure it out

[jefferson_dem]

30. Thanks guys. Here's another one - LAT

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[Longhorn]

35. I think it's this one:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage,1,1906511.htmlstory

[pabloseb]

15. ME can split 3/1

ME does not have a winner take all system and some polls suggest a 3/1 split (3 for Kerry) is likely. In that case, your model becomes a tie which means * wins.

[Czolgosz]

16. All we need is just one of the following closely contestred states:

OH, FL, MO, CO, AZ, NV, AR, TN, VA, or NC. Just ONE -- ANY ONE. And we are leading or behind-within-MOE in these states.

One caveat: How does ME and CO divide electoral votes? If ME is not unanimous for Kerry, AR falls in the same category as WV (as state we may win but we need some other win elsewhere).

[The_Counsel]

31. Electoral Vote Division...

"How does ME and CO divide electoral votes?"

Only two state divide their electoral votes: Maine and Nebraska. Both do it the same way, incidentally...

Nebraska awards each of three electoral votes to the candidate who wins the corresponding Congressional districts. The remaining two EV's go to the winner of the state popular vote. In this case every last one of Nebraska's five EV's are safe for Bush.

Maine awards each of two electoral votes to the candidate who wins the corresponding Congressional districts. The remaining two EV's go to the winner of the state popular vote. In this case, the polls say that Kerry will win one district, and Bush the other; while Kerry is ahead in the state popular vote. That would split the tally 3-1 for Kerry. My opinion: Kerry will win all four EV's outright.

This year there is a referendum in Colorado to split their 9 EV's according to the popular vote. Right now, conventional wisdom says that Bush will win the state narrowly, meaning a 5-4 split in Bush's favor. BUT, the referendum seems to be in danger of failing, which means winner will still take all....

SO... If the referendum passes and Bush carries the state, it's 5-4 Bush. If the referendum passes and Kerry carries the state, it's 5-4 Kerry. If the referendum fails and Bush carries the state, it's 9-0 Bush. If the referendum fails and Kerry carries the state, it's 9-0 Kerry. I think that last scenario will happen, IMHO...

[tritsofme]

20. CD1 in Maine is a concern

Because if they get that one EV, even in your scenario its back to 269-269 and a Bush win in the House.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

39. Agreed. It has never happened (a split in Maine)

but this could be the first time. It would be an indicator of the rural vs. city vote.
I believe polls there may have JK ahead by as much as 5%. Gore won by 8.

[Lorien]

21. Dammit! Don't give up on Florida-HELP US NOW!

Even if you are NOT a Florida resident, you can work to get out the vote in Florida from your home!

Go here: http://betty.vivademocracy.com/ and sign up to call voters and urge them to VOTE NOW for Kerry/ Edwards and Betty Castor (for Senate).

Surfing the net is fun, but action wins elections!

[Griblit]

26. Vote here to help promote Kerry acceptance among Christian voters!!

This was part of a Christian newsletter and it needs help to show Kerry acceptance among voters- to convince those teetering that they aren't un-Christian or showing dissent by voting for Kerry!!

Help the scores, folks!

http://www.beliefnet.com/story/154/story_15406_1.html

[Minimus]

33. I voted - JK is way behind though.

I don't know what type of Christian values these people are talking about because from everything I've ever read on the teachings of Jesus, bush just doesn't match.

[cmayer]

36. JK will carry VA ...

depending on how the military really feels.

Do they support the Commander-in-Chief no matter what? Or does he look like that fucked up 2nd LT in Viet Nam who wanted to lead them on to glory?

[underpants]

37. WV VA NC TN all within 3 points

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/

[Zynx]

40. It is foolish to give up on OH and FL in favor of AR.

If you plan to only win 270, you have no margin for error.