Rumor has Kerry surge in ABC/Post poll Bush 49-48

[59millionmorons]

Just a rumor, although all of the rumors I heard and posted lately have come true.

[sonicx]

1. where'd you hear it?

the numbers come out in a minute or 2

[59millionmorons]

6. Daily Kos board

nt

[Jack from Charlotte]

12. Kos is friggin' awesome..... If half the political reporters read him....

or had someone explain what he writes to them, they'd increase their political knowledge 10 fold.

I'm a numbers guy. So seeing the stats is very interesting.

And if you haven't read his post from this morning about studies showing how and why undecideds vote..... do so.

[WI_DEM]

2. That would mean a very big day for Kerry on Tuesday

since we were down five in that poll yesterday.

[Teaser]

3. I think the opposite is true actually.

This is a 4 day moving average. IT's been approximately 50-46 for the last four days or so. Indicates a huge outlier for Bush just dropped off the moving average. Same effect, different cause.

But, unless you've got Rove's resources, reverse engineering a poll is really difficult, so who knows?

[WI_DEM]

15. according to their methodology it is a three day tracking poll

and this one was conducted between October 17-19.

[Randi_Listener]

4. Surge?

Every poll shows that it's a deadlock. This would bring the fucking ABC poll into compliance. It's just a fucking shitty mess.

[southern democrat]

5. You may be right, I'm definately feeling and now we are seeing momentum

for Kerry

[sonicx]

7. you were off. 50-47

[ollie3]

9. 2 point gain in one day nothing to sneeze at....

Getting closer to reality! Bush down 1, Kerry up one.

[RafterMan]

10. Rounding error

[59millionmorons]

13. Wait for the RV to come out

nt

[sonicx]

14. you're probably right

[jefferson_dem]

8. 50-47 but i'll take it. Chimp down 1, Kerry up 1

[Teaser]

11. Probably the RV numbers.

They're out later.