Gas prices may help Kerry more than the media is suggesting

[Awsi Dooger]

I just scanned the internals of the PEW poll. Among many things that stood out: gas prices are BY FAR the #1 topic Americans are following "very closely," much higher than the election itself. Somehow, I doubt the gas prices are being followed amidst accompanying joy. It's my pocketbook, stupid. There's got to be somewhat of an inverse relationship between gas prices and Bush job approval, now reported in the 44% range by PEW, CBS and Zogby. Plus the stock market closed below 9900 today, down 400 points since early September.

Following very closely:

Gas prices 64%
Presidential Election 46%
Flu vaccine shortages 44%
Situation in Iraq 42%
Economic conditions 30%
Mt St Helens 20%

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=229

"While the intensely fought presidential election is drawing wide attention, the high price of gasoline these days currently tops the American public's list of news interests. Nearly two-thirds (64%) say they are following news about gas prices very closely, and another 22% are following somewhat closely. Public attention to this story has not been as high since May 2001. Interest in this issue is high across all parts of the country.

Nearly half of Americans (46%) are following news about candidates for the 2004 presidential election very closely. Looking specifically at registered voters, fully 54% are following news about the campaign very closely, far higher than the 40% who closely followed campaign news four years ago or the 34% who were very interested in campaign news on the eve of the 1996 election. Only in 1992 was voter interest in the campaign as high as it is currently.

The shortage in the supply of flu vaccines available this year is being followed very closely by 44% of Americans. Interest is highest among women (52% vs. 35% of men), as well as older and lower income Americans.

Despite continuing violence in Iraq, public attention to news from that country has fallen over the past month, from 47% following very closely in September to 42% today. There is also a considerable drop in the proportion of Americans closely following economic news. Just three-in-ten report paying very close attention to reports about the condition of the U.S. economy, down from 39% a month ago."