Zogby Early Voting: bush* 50% Kerry 48%

[F.Gordon]

That's the bad news for 10/20/2004. I've highlighted the good news from today's report...

Pollster John Zogby: “It's still neck and neck, folks, and targeting is intense. With Bush and Kerry now tied among seniors, small wonder that Kerry is pushing hard on social security. Recall that in 2000 when Gore faced the same dilemma, he closed out the race winning seniors pressing the social security button. Bush’s lead among armed forces’ families is strong—maybe Sinclair hears the call to reinforce. Similarly, Kerry’s growing young voter appeal can only be helped by the ‘draft.’ Two new items to note: Among newly registered voters Kerry leads 52% to 38%; among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%. These two groups bear watching.”

[DaveinMD]

1. that's

within the margin of error. So its pretty much even. Also, what states have early voting. Texas does. New York doesn't. That could skew the numbers.

[timber84]

2. NC

NC has early voting SC only has absentee

[PermanentRevolution]

4. FL

I'm going tomorrow

[lachattefolle]

8. AZ does

[naufragus]

43. if those are TX #'s

then its kerry in a landslide

[MoonRiver]

50. Kansas

I voted Monday.

[Teaser]

3. That aint bad news

I'm replying as another in my long series of replies on statistics.

The number of people in Zogby's poll who have already voted is almost vanishingly small. Consequently the error bars (margin of error) on those numbers is very large. It's too small a sample to say anything meaningful about.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Doubt Low Income People Who are Part Of Our Base Are Early Voters...

It's the upper income folks who will be the most motivated to vote early...

The fact we are close is a great sign...

Think about it...

[saracat]

9. The low income people are NOT on our side.

It is a weird thing really. Sort of like if they touch a repug, they will be brushed by magic!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Under $20,000 Are Still Breaking For Kerry By A Nice Margin..

Sadly that is more correlation than causation because the poor are disproportionately black and brown....

[saracat]

25. But the lower income whites aren't . Bizzarre.

I think they tend fundie.The better educated vote Dem. But these days thanks to Bush better educated and lower icome may be more the norm! LOL! Not.

[Iris]

38. Based on racism.

"I may be poor but at least I'm not black"

That's how it is in the South, anyway. It's the truth no one will say out loud.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

53. Someone did say it. (paraphrase)

There's not one white person in this audience that would trade places with me...and I'm rich! {in white guy voice} No thanks, I think I'll take my chances. - Chris Rock, talking about affirmative action.

Bingo.

[Iris]

79. Yeah.

But is he really going to reach the people I'm talking about?

[Scoopie]

63. You know something

I've lived in the South my entire life and I've never heard that saying.
Please keep your over-generalizations to yourself.
My Southern state is a swing state - with a Dem governor who originally hails from New York state. If Clinton would campaign here, it probably would tip the state from the pinkish-lavender it is on the www.electoral-vote.com map to light blue.
This is the one thing that ticks me off about this blog: stereotypes are NOT acceptable, unless, of course, you're making fun of the South.
If you'd stop complaining about the so-called "red" South and come help the 36 to 46 percent of anti-Shrubies in any given state by spreading the truth, there wouldn't be so many winner-take-all-electoral-college red states down here.

[Iris]

78. This is not a generalization. It is my observation.

And where I'm from white people who are not rich and vote Republican do so because of racism. I have seen it destroy my hometown and I see and hear it every day on the talk radio programs in Atlanta.

I live down here and do my best to spread the truth every day, so don't give me your crap about "changing things." Believe me, I do my part.

[Iris]

83. And here's something from Free Republic to provide some

anecdotal evidence:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1129443&mesg_id=1129520&page=

[LiberteToujours]

21. Yes they are

Those on the very bottom break strongly for Kerry. It's the lower and upper middle class that Bush gets; those people who think that with a little bit of greed, they can move up in the world.

[DuaneBidoux]

45. Have to say I don't agree with you on that

Oversimplified I do think...

Lower class whites go for Bush overwhelmingly. Lower class minorities for Kerry. Middle class professionals (teachers, etc.) for Kerry, but middle class workers and managers go for Bush but not completely. Upper middle class is where the break starts to occur among education. Certain kinds of education like accounting and business, and they break for Bush. All the rest, at undergraduate and above, go for Kerry. Those with none business degrees of any sort go for Kerry, PhD's are something like 200 to 1 Kerry. I read a study that said Librarian money contributions to the campaigns were something like $290 for Kerry to every dollar for Bush. Education is key.

[eyeontheprize]

49. How do people who chose no party affiliation in closed primary

states break? I don't know how to research that question and I need an answer for our GOTV in the middle of nowhere.

[DuaneBidoux]

51. Are you talking rural areas?

Giving me specifics and we can shoot the s**t over some tactics.

[daydreamer]

70. Lot of truth in it

This cpa goes for Kerry

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Right, you're probably talking about 200 people or less

I looked at his poll today and I think it was 1300+ people. So even if you assume a generous 15% of them have already voted, that's maybe 200 people. Even if he's been asking that question for 5 or 6 days, since early voting began, it likely doesn't total 500. I'm not even sure why he quoted that stat.

[David__77]

5. Traditionally, the GOP has an edge among early voters.

The GOPers have always voted by absentee in larger proportions. This is less than in the past to a considerable degree, but is worth repeating.

[Hello_Kitty]

62. A lot of Dems want to go to the polls

Some tell me they don't trust the absentee ballots while others are traditionalist, they want to 'pull that lever'. So I'm very heartened that Kerry is pulling 48%. I think it bodes very well.

[naufragus]

6. HOW?????

is he getting his already voted numbers i wonder.

[Doosh]

11. has early voting mostly taken place in red states?

50-48 is really nothing to fear, besides these early votes only make up about 1% of the total, maybe even less.

[Beetwasher]

12. Early Voting Numbers Are IRRELEVANT!!! The Heaviest Blue States DON'T VOTE

NY (for sure), CA, MA, IL (I think) don't have early voting...Any numbers now are vastly skewered toward Bush without those states factored in...

Actually, if you think about it, that's an amazing percentage for Kerry w/out those states...The states that have it for the most part went Bush, aside from FL...

[Doosh]

13. I don't think we've had it in NJ either

[Kahuna]

77. I also don't believe we have it in NJ.

nt

[KittyWampus]

15. Everyone Listen To Beetwasher.. He's Smart Cookie!

:)

[SammyWinstonJack]

36. I will!

:-)

[TexasSissy]

16. EARLY VOTING HERE IN TEXAS! We've been voting since 10/18!

Needless to say, this is a VERY red state!

[TexasSissy]

17. Forgot to say that the GOP sent out automated phone msg telling folks to

vote early. So the GOP has worked it here in Texas to get out the early vote!

Don't be discouraged by early vote numbers!

[Beetwasher]

19. Actually Be ENCOURAGED

TX and FL are probably the two biggest states w/ it and the numbers are amazing for Kerry considering our biggest prizes are not even factored in yet...

[snippy]

29. Very true. Early voting in Texas alone could give bush several points.

Kerry may be leading in every early voting state except Texas.

[goclark]

27. CA has Early Voting 10/20 -10/29 nt

[Beetwasher]

31. So The Numbers To Now Are Still Irrelevant

And they will remain irrelevant even when Cali starts voting, though I suspect they will swing even better for Kerry...

[calimary]

67. I already voted. Fired his ass on Tuesday. I saw someone's post

here (apologies for not remembering who posted it) describing Tuesday the 19th as "Pink Slip Day" as in - pink slip for georgie poo - give him his two-weeks notice. My absentee ballot had arrived by then. So I did. Went to the post office here in West L.A. and mailed it. The mail clerk saw my Kerry button and said "see you at the inauguration!"

[psychopomp]

37. My CA absentee ballot goes in the mail today

A typhoon prevented me from getting it to the PO yesterday.

(D) all the way down the line!

Kerry, baby.

[Cha]

56. A typhoon? I hope you're

having fun where ever you are!

[F.Gordon]

42. Exactly

..

[aquart]

18. "Tied among seniors"????????????????????????????????

Good god, HOW????????????

[Fluffdaddy]

20. It's means nothing.......settle the heck down

[tinrobot]

22. Reporting while voting in progress?

Aren't pollsters supposed to hold their predictions on the actual vote until the polls are closed? That's why the networks never call the race until the west coast polls are all closed.

This could be a new precedent.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

23. Don't the "early voting" states skew towards Repub states?

[DaveinMD]

28. exactly

these are very good numbers if accurate.

[hadrons]

24. "Bush’s lead among armed forces’ families is strong"

reap what you sow

[rocktivity]

26. BUSH VIRTUAL REALITY ALERT!

Please ignore this poll/story/article, as it is a product of the Bush empire's Faith-Based Reality Manufacturing Program. Details here.

Bush and Kerry are TIED among seniors? Bush is strong amoung miltary families? Shouldn't that be the other way around? Toro turd!

:headbang:
rocknation

[TexasSissy]

30. How does Zogby know? Early votes aren't "reported"?

[DaveinMD]

32. he asking people if they voted early

and if so, how did they vote.

[Awsi Dooger]

34. He obviously asks it as part of his poll

"Who do you favor for president?"

"Have you already voted? If so, who did you vote for?"

As I mentioned in a previous post here, it can't be more than hundreds of votes in his sample at this point. If Zogby continues to update it with cumulative figures, maybe late next week it will have some minor significance.

[TexasSissy]

57. Ohhhhh. Got it.

[janx]

33. Where is Zogby getting these numbers? Are these

coming from ballots that have already been cast? How would he get them so fast? Most early voting started Monday.

Do you have a link?

Edit: Nevermind. My question was answered just before I posted it.

Another poll...

[louis c]

35. You folks are missing the point

Early voting doesn't mean anything, it's mostly in Texas. You have to see the break down by state.

More important is the newly registered. They are never, ever factored into the likely voter group. They may not even show up in registered voters because they are on a separate list, and are seldomed polled.

If these folks, who number close to 20 million nationwide are breaking that widely for Kerry, you can add 2 points to his National polls, and maybe 3 to 5 points in battleground states where the registrations are more intense.

This is extremely good news.

[Roland99]

39. IS there a breakdown by state? If so, where?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

40. Exactly!

Kerry is killing in newly registered, as I suspected, and this is extremely good news. One more thing to bump up Kerry's final %. All signs are pointing Kerry, except I suppose for Stallone's mom's psychic dogs predicting a * win. And FOX speculating "Is Kerry out of the race?"

I feel good.

[Bleacher Creature]

41. Louis C. Nailed It!

Early voting is going on in close states and Texas. Those numbers don't mean squat.

[cindyw]

44. Which states did this include? If it is just the early four, including

Texas, Arkansas, Nevada and Florida, then Kerry is kicking a** in Florida because Bush is polling 60-40 in Texas. Statiscally this would have to mean that Kerry is winning big in one of the other states or by a small margin in all the other.

[Zen Democrat]

68. Remember the 60-40 is likely voters. No way that number is good.

It will be MUCH closer in Texas. Bush will win it, but not nearly by as much as polls indicate.

[DuaneBidoux]

46. Fits the Republican profile to show up early and vote in the Lincoln

Nobody in vans showing up for early voting. And you can guess which candidate on election day will get the votes of those folks pouring out of the vans.

[betterdeadthanred]

47. How many early voting sites are in minority areas?

I am hearing...none.

[Lorien]

48. If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem

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[bush equals idiot]

52. Everybody keeps forgetting the overseas ballots.

There was a record number requested. They will mostly circle the BIG K.


That's pretty good, I didn't even know what I wrote until after I wrote it.

[kurtyboy]

54. Where I'm from, early voters lean GOP

By about 5-9% over election-day poll-voters. Extrapolating that to FLA (pretty shaky, really...), If * only has 2% lead, he is in

DEEP DEEP TROUBLE!

[Blue_Roses]

58. hold on there--not necessarily

I voted today and I stood in line for an hour with 2 Democrats behind me and 1 in front of me(we got to know one another standing there for so long). The line was out the door and they said they had never seen this huge crowd in all the years of voting.

These numbers mean nothing.

[Nicholas_J]

55. Was there a margin of error here

There is no way toreally tell what the actual early voting is

[Blue_Roses]

59. Is there a link to this?

:shrug:

[sonicx]

60. You guys are reading this poll WRONG!!!

<<among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%>>

that means people who have voted in previous elections!!! nothing to do with early voting for this election.

[Kazak]

64. Ah...

*whew*

[tedoll78]

76. BINGO, BINGO, BINGO!

New voters are NOT included in this poll, as is the case for most polls. I've read some estimates where as much as 7 or 8% of the electorate could be new voters, and that they favor Kerry by about 2-to-1.

So add the New Voter Factor to the Red State Early Voting factor, and we're in great shape!

[elperromagico]

61. If this is just based on early voting in TX, CO, AR, and FL,

then Kerry's doing well. Bush won those four states combined in 2000 by a margin of 54%-43%. If it includes those who have cast absentee ballots, or other states, then it's not as great but it's still not bad.

I can't really sort it out; Zogby is being rather unspecific here.

[F.Gordon]

65. There is nothing in the Zogby bling bling data

I don't consider the "bad" news bad because of the way Zogby weights everything. The important stat that I was trying to get across was the fact that Kerry is kicking ass with new voters.

[ROH]

66. Check the full quote...

"Among newly registered voters Kerry leads 52% to 38%; among those who have already voted, Bush leads 50% to 48%."

I believe Sonicx has put this correctly. The above is a single sentence, with two clauses separated by a semicolon.

It seems to me (and Sonicx) that Zogby is stating: "Among newly registered voters Kerry leads 52% to 38%; among those who have already voted IN EARLIER ELECTIONS, Bush leads 50% to 48%."

[Awsi Dooger]

69. That may be correct; if so, horrendous choice of words by Zogby

I have a journalism degree. Before this thread was posted, I visited Zogby's website and read the summary regarding today's poll. I never even considered Zogby was referring to people who had voted in past elections.

But as I posted earlier in this thread, the 50-48 had no significance otherwise, because a 1300+ sample probably included a maximum of 200 people who had already voted this year. I have been astonished so many people responded to this thread with concern, given that puny number.

Evaluating the sentence now, I'm almost certain you are correct, that sonicx caught what all of us had missed. Still, it's putrid sentence structure and choice of words by Zogby. "Already" implies a recent or ongoing action, not years or decades in the past. With voting now underway, it's logical and proper to assume he meant "already in this election."

It should have been, "...among those who have voted in previous elections..."

[Nashyra]

71. Among early voters in NV Dems lead

Three days woth of voting and more Dems have voted than repukes. The first day it was 46% to 42% Dems and the 2nd day it was 46% to 40% Dems and the third day it was 48% to 40% Dems. and this is a swing state.

[Awsi Dooger]

73. Right, I'm in Las Vegas and I've seen those figures

Tonight I think I heard 68,000+ total votes so far.

But notice they're not giving actual vote counts or percentages, which is what many of us thought Zogby was doing via his poll summary.

I decided to wait a few days to early vote. There are still some ballot measures and non-partisan races I'm reviewing. Hopefully I'll decipher them by tomorrow:)

[Lakerstan]

75. More on Nevada here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1127005

[demwing]

72. Its a contrast

On one hand you have the newly registered, on the other hand you have previous voters. Kerry leads one by a large margin, Bush leads the other by a short margin.

[Joe Turner]

74. Actually this is very good news for Kerry

Republicans tend to vote early, as soon as they can. I know, I used to be one of them. If Bush only has a 2 point lead in the states allowing early voting he has a rude awakening come Nov 2, when most of America turns out to vote.

[npincus]

80. I may be alone here, but this isn't good news

at best, it's meaningless. To me it signals those chomping at the bit to lay down their vote (base) have run to the polls to do so. It shows more fervent and avid response in favor of Bush. Turnout is everything, we need to get our people (I believe the majority) to the polls.

Sorry, am not cheering this tidbit of news.

[timezoned]

81. It's contrasting "new voters" with "not new voters"

and if new voters are 52% to 38% for Kerry it's fantastic news.

If the rest (which is what he meant by "those who have already voted" i.e those not new to voting) are tied, that's no surprise.

Nothing to do with early voting, plus it's just another bit among tons of data.


(On the other hand - if new registers did actually conttinue to show that kind of margin, add that to the "undecideds break to the challenger" rule-- yowza. Could be enormous for JFK.)

Could, I say.

[DemocracyInaction]

82. I think we are getting the organges and the apples all mixed up here

This doesn't mean a voting trend. It just goes to point out what I said yesterday to a poster who was all excited about the early turnout in their area being large. The republicans and their preachermen have been pushing their people to either absentee vote or vote early because they fear Bush getting crapped on at the end of this campaign and thus have people change their minds. We don't have that kind of nice pat little pulpit to advertise this to our people. Our push comes on election day when phone banks light up and people go door to door to get people out to vote. So don't take this stat as the way things are breaking for Bush. That isn't what it is measuring.

[greensforimpact]

84. what's the nader total?

What's the Nader total for this poll? He still worries me!

Ralph Nader is now working with a dangerous, cult-like "social therapy" political party. This is disgusting. Please read the report at available at http://www.greensforimpact.com/nadercult.pdf

I've also copied some of the findings below - but please help spread this information. Progressives *must* know about this.

The Independence Party of New York has endorsed Ralph Nader's campaign for president. The Independence Party is a neo-Marxist sect, built around a mind-control technique called "Social Therapy," developed by Fred Newman. Newman’s right-hand woman, is the fringe political operative, Lenora Fulani.

For more information about the social therapy technique and the terrible effects it has had on untold lives, visit www.ex-iwp.org, a community of former members of the Newmanite organization.

Greens for Impact (www.GreensforImpact.com) calls on Nader to reject the endorsement of, and other well-documented support by, Fred Newman, Lenora Fulani, and their Independence Party. Their assistance ranges from giving him legal assistance to get on the ballot in swing states, setting up a shadow 527 organization to boost him, filing lawsuits against Kerry for him, and helping him gather signatures.

See the full report at http://www.greensforimpact.com/nadercult.pdf