10/20 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 312 EV, 96% WIN PROB, 51.39% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Redneck Socialist]

1. What is the Win Prob for the Red Sox?

Just wondering...B-)

[olddem43]

2. Thanks again TIA - you make this whole thing bearable.

Keep it up until the end, whenever that may be.

[deadparrot]

3. Thanks for putting in all the time for this.

It's always very informative, even though I don't understand all the formulas, etc.

[AmerDem]

4. it's going to be interesting to compare your predictions

after the election. Make sure you post them on or just before election day.

[Vadem]

5. OMG TIA! I pray to G_d you are absolutely correct!!!!!! n/t

[Andromeda]

6. You raised my spirits today, TIA...

I have to fight to stay positive sometimes. Thanks for all the hard work you do for us on DU. :-)

[rndmprsn]

7. wow almost matches electoral-vote.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

Kerry 311 Bush 227

i hope and pray you are both correct.

[TruthIsAll]

8. AM kick

tia

[eriffle]

9. Quick Question

Your methodology seems way over my head, but I'm not doubting it. I am curious about one thing though, it seems as though Kerry is starting to pull ahead, but your numbers show his winning probability going down (from 98 ish yesterday to 96 today). Any reason, are there other polls I just haven't seen, or is it really just probability and it flucuates are you run different models? Once again, just curious, keep up the good work.

[TruthIsAll]

10. As polls are updated polls, the probabilities change...

As the numbers change in a few states, so do the Kerry win probabilities, since the they are dependent them.

For example, if Ohio changes from Kerry 48 - 47 to 47 -48, his OH win probability will drop, as will his expected EV. His total number of EV trial wins as a percent of 5000 (his election win probability) will dip a little, as it did today..