EV.com, Predicted Final Result: Kerry 311 Bush 227

[liberalpragmatist]

He used to have a linear progression line, but those produced wild results that made no sense (at one point Oklahoma was blue and New York was red).

Now he's added a page where he takes the most recent poll and distributes the undecideds 2/3 to Kerry, 1/3 to Bush. He also gives Nader a point where he's on the ballot and other candidates a point total.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred

Right now, Kerry's got all the Gore states, plus Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire.

Colorado and Nevada are "weak Bush," but Arizona, Virginia, Tennessee, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Arkansas are "barely Bush."



So no huge surprises - still it's nice to see.

[GainesT1958]

1. Why is that man smiling?

Right now, for LOTS of reasons!:D

:kick:

Note: this donkey has RED SOX!:eyes:

B-)

[dressleft2]

2. polls suck

They are so overrated... So is spin.

[liberalpragmatist]

3. kicking this

:kick:

[LittleClarkie]

4. How close did these guys come in 2000?

Or were they around?

[liberalpragmatist]

5. didn't exist

Take it with a grain of salt - it just uses the most recent poll, regardless of origin. Still, it can be useful to help determine trends and see what states are competitive, so long as you take into account polls of the previous day and whatnot.

This map is the most recent poll, with undecideds distributed 2/3 to Kerry and 1/3 to Bush. A point is allocated in most states for other parties and an additional pt where Nader's on the ballot.

Frankly, I can believe this projection - looks pretty realistic. I think they're right that Minnesota won't be all that close - Bush is barely at 45% in most polls there. Wisconsin or Iowa may be closer and one or the other may go to Bush.

[Andromeda]

6. This is awesome!

Pleeeeease, pleeease let this be true. :bounce:

[Lexingtonian]

7. looks much more plausible than his earlier stuff

He's within a shade of all of them except, possibly, Nevada- which could reasonably be scored Barely Kerry or Barely Bush. A relatively large part of the electorate (maybe 5-6%) there got registered in just the past two months and is barely in the comupters there, and certainly isn't represented on the pollsters' registered voter call lists.

And for you worriers, Maine is safely Kerry's. There's been a lot of toying with voting for Nader going on there (4% for most of the year), but that will diminish (like everywhere else) when people get serious and mostly go to Kerry.