Check Poll Results...Dem Strategists Predicting Kerry Win

[lfs5]

Late-breaking poll results posted at: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

Highlights from the latest Democracy Corps strategy memo by Stanley Greenberg and James Carville. (More at above site.)

* Bush’s vote is at 47 percent in our two post-debate polls; his job approval rating has dropped to 47 percent and his vote in the public polls is at 47 percent…As the incumbent, it is very difficult for him to get a vote on election day higher than 47 percent, unless he can raise his position before then.

* That is mostly true because “undecided” voters are not really undecided and almost always break against the incumbent, particularly if the incumbent is a polarizing figure, like Bush. The undecided in this election are populist change voters. By 63 to 28 percent, they want to go in a significantly different direction than Bush; they are critical of big corporations; and break two-to-one Democratic at the congressional level.

*... an increasing number of new registrants, now at 7 percent of the likely voters.... These new voters who could play a decisive role in this election support Kerry by 61 to 36 percent.

Also cited, The CBS News/New York Times Poll, which shows that:

-Kerry leads by 7 among independents.

- Bush's approval rating is only 44 percent among RVs, but a truly abysmal 34 percent approval/50 percent diapproval among independents.

- Right direction/wrong track is 39/57 and a stunning 34/61 among independents.

- More voters think the economy is getting worse (34 percent) than think it is getting better (24 percent).

- Among independents, the Democrats' favorable/unfavorable rating is 54/35, while Republicans' rating is 42/49.

- By 60 percent to 8 percent, voters believe Bush administration policies have mostly benefitted the rich, rather than the middle class.

- Independents believe, by 65-21, that Kerry is more interested in protecting the interests of ordinary Americans than in protecting the interests of large corporations; by 69-22, they believe Bush sides with large corporations rather than ordinary Americans.

- Finally, 67 percent of voters believe their family is not better off today than four years ago and 75 percent believe the number of jobs in their community has not increased in the last four years.

(For a complete listing of all 18 points--all favoring Kerry--visit the emergingdemocraticmajority web site.)

In the key battleground states, Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, Alan Abramowitz reports, "...George Bush is in big trouble in all three," and says New Jersey is safely in the Democratic column. A poll of likely voters, conducted by the Eagleton Institute of Politics, "a long-established, very reputable polling organization." shows Kerry leading "by 13 among likely voters." According to the poll, "Kerry's firm support is 48 percent; Bush's firm support is 36." The conclusion, "Kerry is likely to carry NJ by about the same margin as Gore did four years ago."

[quaoar]

1. I agree with all that

So why is it such a deep dark secret? Why aren't they pushing it on the media so we don't have to listen to all the shit about Bush surging 24/7?

[mellowinman]

2. Bush is surging? We're DOOOOMED!

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!!!!!

[Zero Gravitas]

22. The SCLM want Bush to win

so they try to create an aura of inevitability about a Bush victory in the hope that enough potential Kerry voters won't bother to vote since "Bush is going to win anyway".

[loyalsister]

25. Let them think it's over

They don't have to worry about a thing.
They can just relax, like Bush has here in Missouri.
While we are out in full force daily convincing a few here and there.

[LiberteToujours]

3. Great news

My number one worry this election is the Religious Right. I worry that they're going to vote very strongly this year. We need to make sure our side has increased its vote just as much.

[JohnnyCougar]

8. not if cheney's daughter is gay

and not if Pat Robertson starts a feud with Bush.

[StlMo]

13. The events surrounding Pat Robertson could have a huge impact.

The GOP is well versed in hypocrisy.
They will ask their core religious fanatics to ignore the Cheney's double standard.
However, a schism between one of their top leaders and the Bushies has serious potential to devastate the Republican Party.

[tedoll78]

14. Yup.

If 1 or 2% of the GOP fundie base sits at home because of this, it could hand Kerry several more states..

[Arugula Latte]

24. Maybe George Lucas can rig a faux "Second Coming"

You know, "Jesus" descends from the sky, lots of light beams, actors in harnesses hidden under their clothes get whisked into the sky. Hallelujah! "He done finally come back! I'm fixin' ta go ta Heaven!"

Distracts them from voting, you know.

Maybe that Bosox player with the beard and long hair can play Jesus.

[Andromeda]

4. Woohooooooooo!

Go Kerry!!! I love this poll, just hope it stays that way.

[Demfromct]

5. No Kool Aid just yet

I don't belive our hype. Why is Bush leading on most other national polls and MSNBC found that Bush is leading in Ohio and New Hampshire. They say they are tied, I think it is very much in doubt.

We can say all we want about them, but it really isn't true that they are Republican hacks (with the exception of fox).

I'll discount Gallup, but every semi-independent TV pundit says Bush is looking like he may squeak it out. What is going on?

I think we may have gotten some Kool Aid on the Democrats to keep us motivated.

You can say they are hacks, but I think we are blinded by our want of a bush loss and need to be comforted. I am skpetical of the Kerry surge that is on only Democratic sites on the internet.

Kerry is down 2 points here nationally and if that remains, we will not know the winner on election night.

If Kerry is tied come election nights in the polls, I expect him to win the election.

It is interesting that GOP pollster Frank Luntz had the best analysis for this election. He said Bush had to be up at least 4 percent in national polls to win on election day.

I dont think this is going to happen. I predict Kerry wins 49-48, but we are in for a long night. Dont belive the deomcartic hype, act like Kerry is down 5.

[neomonkey]

7. You're not Joe Lieberman, are you??? :(

[calimary]

30. Actually, it's not unreasonable thinking. We risk becoming complacent

if we let this lull us into assuming we'll clinch it. Maybe it IS a good thing that people see those polls pounded on, over and over and over and over and over, about bush leading. Hopefully, some of 'em will think bush has it in the bag, so why worry? Maybe some will even sit this one out, assuming incorrectly that they have enough of an edge to be safe. GOOD!!! That will ONLY benefit US.

THIS IS NO TIME TO GET COMPLACENT. We do indeed still have to fight as though we were underdogs. Considering the muscle of the forces against us, frankly, we ARE the underdogs.

[RummyTheDummy]

9. There are several polls showing Kerry up in Ohio

On edit...I smell something with this poster and it ain't roses.

[cubsfan forever]

18. I completely agree with you about the smell

What is this nonsense with citing MSNBC? What semi-independent polls is this person talking about? I doubt our "friend" will be back. Maybe New England gets the trifecta this year: Red Sox, Patriots, Kerry!

Professor 2

[Commie Mike]

32. smell of desperation?

It smells like rotting corpses. I have never been as happy about this election as I am right now. I think it's so stupid to think any Democrat wouldn't vote this time because they think Kerry has it in the bag. If Kerry was to lose, it would be because of Republican shenanigans, not because he doesn't have the country behind him completely. And whiney cry-baby Republicans masquerading as Democrats won't be able to change it.

[JohnnyCougar]

10. right

the only way we win is if we GOTV. And we have VERY strong GOTV this year.

I hope this forum is empty on Nov 2....we should all be helping somewhere!

[StlMo]

11. Electoral-Vote.com (October 20, 2004) EVs: Kerry 291 - Bush 247

These are the results of mainstream news polls:

Electoral Votes (270 Needed to Win)
Kerry 291
Bush 247

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Due to several factors, Kerry is probably doing significantly better than these polls, but either case shows Kerry beating Bush.

[geekgrrl]

29. and the predicted results are looking even better!!

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

I'll cling to this for now- I do truly believe that national polls are not only irrelevant, but slanted toward Bush b/c so many of the polls over poll republicans and underestimate the number of new/young voters.

They are trying to make it seem as close as possible (the entire media) so that when Bush's team contests the results everyone will think that makes sense.

Did anyone see the ap article today about Kerry's war plans for a contested election and recounts. It made me feel much better. It is on the front page of smirkingchimp.org

[IIgnoreNobody]

12. 'every semi-independent TV pundit says' -- lol, good one

I almost thought you were being serious till then.

[snippy]

16. Bush does better in national polls because of the lopsided margins

he receives in several states which have a large percentage of Reich wing fundamentalist republican hate mongers. Bush may win some of those states by record margins. But receiving 75% of the vote in a republican state does not help him at all in the important states.

[Lerkfish]

19. welcome to DU!

I'm supposed to welcome new people, even the pessimistic ones.

I, on the other hand, believe in the ELECTORAL TSUNAMI.

Kerry by a landslide of REAL votes, before Bush fraud and diebolding attempt to forestall it.

[Chiyo-chichi]

20. "You can say they are hacks..."

OK, they are hacks.

"it really isn't true that they are Republican hacks (with the exception of fox)."

Read Joe Conason's "Big Lies." MSNBC executives have said that FOX News is their model.

[neomonkey]

6. I will cling to this

and work my hardest to make it a reality.

[Skinner]

15. Good analysis.

I'm gonna give this a kick.

[DemocracyInaction]

17. Just put up a post about 57% Dems vs. 50% republicans

go check it out.....I think it shows the "fired" up factor.

[ohtransplant]

21. Shout it from the hilltops!!!

If there really are any undecideds out there, the Dems are missing a golden opportunity to invoke Ronald Reagan and his slogan that torpedoed Jimmy Carter (among other things...)i.e., "Are you better of now than you were four years ago??"

"Finally, 67 percent of voters believe their family is not better off today than four years ago and 75 percent believe the number of jobs in their community has not increased in the last four years."

If anyone in these situations vote for *, isn't that really a vote against their own families???? Isn't there anyone left who's concerned with their family's future?

These are people who should reject "*" in a very large way but many are tied to a single issue...

Work the election !!

http://actforvictory.org/


:bounce:

[newyawker99]

27. Hi ohtransplant!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ohtransplant]

36. Thanks...

I've been a long time lurker, doing all the on-line polls after the debates, doing all the Sinclair responses, etc...This one is too big - too important to sit out.

Go Kerry!!!

Volunteer !!!
http://actforvictory.org/

:dem:

[RedEarth]

23. Good news....but now is the time to WORK EVEN HARDER

to make sure bush doesn't win. Do anything you can to help...go to K/E web site and volunteer to canvass, phone bank, donate money...anything...we have to kick this monster out of the white house.

[TrogL]

26. With these numbers and other polling, all Kerry needs is Iowa

[Paradise]

28. thanks, Ifs5. a lot of what seems to be uplifting and good news.

it is a Democratic site. think we are best to approach this election as the underdog,
which we may very well be, and, therefore, a MUST to getting out the vote. :hi:

[stevietheman]

31. Why the media pretends this is a dead heat (or shows a Bush "surge")

I see what the media is doing as purely economic in nature.

November is sweeps month. Each of the networks want huge numbers in their primetime evening election coverage. And newspapers certainly want to sell more newspapers.

The moguls who run these operations know full well what many of us know--that the polls stink.

But they also know that showing a dead heat or Bush somewhat ahead (when they know how much disdain much of the electorate has for him) will drive a huge turnout, and also do something that will bring them riches beyond the dreams of avarice: Showing "9/11-style" surprise at Kerry's ultimate landslide victory and spending many days during the sweeps period to explain to us in many creative ways how Kerry did it or what was wrong with the polls.

It's all about money, folks.

[TwentyFive]

34. Welcome to DU!

That is very good analysis. I did not consider the self-interest of the pollsters/media, but I can see how they want everybody to believe this is going to end in a photo finish.

Personally, I feel a big win for Democrats on Nov. 2. I think we'll steamroll over bush, and take the Senate back too. As for the House, we may pick up some seats, but unfortunately, Tom Deeelay will be left Majority leader....although, hopefully, in a weakened state~!

[fujiyama]

33. If Kerry leads by 7

among independants, he wins. There is just no question. Bush won this group by 1 and still lost the popular vote. Granted, there's still a week. a lot can happen in that time.

I am almost certain that Kerry will win the popular vote. I really doubt a plurality, let alone a majority of people want Bush back in office for another 4 years.

Of course the popular vote is not what wins the election, so Kerry's gotta win OH...and at the minimum WI or NM and IA.

[misterphelps]

35. Never believed NJ was at risk..

.. and I think Kerry will do better than Gore here. In a state that watched the towers fall and lost many of its own, we are highly aware of our continued vulnerabilities. Moreover, NJ ranks 41st in per capita funding for homeland security. This is with the largest ports in the country. No, we are not safer today.

[oasis]

37. kick

[greensforimpact]

38. still worried about Nader

This is too hard to predict though. The turnout models for this year are totally speculative and who knows what the Nader effect will be.

I'm scared of Nader though.....

Ralph Nader is now working with a dangerous, cult-like "social therapy" political party. This is disgusting. Please read the report at available at http://www.greensforimpact.com/nadercult.pdf

I've also copied some of the findings below - but please help spread this information. Progressives *must* know about this.

The Independence Party of New York has endorsed Ralph Nader's campaign for president. The Independence Party is a neo-Marxist sect, built around a mind-control technique called "Social Therapy," developed by Fred Newman. Newman’s right-hand woman, is the fringe political operative, Lenora Fulani.

For more information about the social therapy technique and the terrible effects it has had on untold lives, visit www.ex-iwp.org, a community of former members of the Newmanite organization.

Greens for Impact (www.GreensforImpact.com) calls on Nader to reject the endorsement of, and other well-documented support by, Fred Newman, Lenora Fulani, and their Independence Party. Their assistance ranges from giving him legal assistance to get on the ballot in swing states, setting up a shadow 527 organization to boost him, filing lawsuits against Kerry for him, and helping him gather signatures.

See the full report at http://www.greensforimpact.com/nadercult.pdf

[obiwan]

39. How do you obtain the internals from these major polls?

I would like to see the mix of Repubs and Dems in these polls, as I think the polling organizations are playing fast and loose. Please reply to this post. Thanks.