Re Campaign Alert: Arizona Republic Poll thursday

[saracat]

will have Bush with only 2% lead. Kery and Bush Tied for Az!
Arizona is going blue!

[Fluffdaddy]

1. I read Kerry an his team are pulling out of Arizona.........writing it off

Will look for link

[Tim_in_HK]

3. I think that's true

but IIRC, the Kerry team agreed to pull out, while leaving the state Dem party in charge of swinging AZ to blue.

This was the AZ Dem state party's idea, thinking that canvassing would be more effective than AZ state-wide media buys.

According to the AZ Dem Party, they thought they could be very effective in following this plan.

Could be wrong, but I think that was AZ.

[saracat]

15. Uh! Uh! That is NOT true. And they have NOT pulled out!

But they are gambling AZ 10 EV's to see if they can secure New Mexico and Oregon.I think Oregon. My brain is dead! That would be 19EV's

[unfrigginreal]

2. Where are you getting that information

the poll they published today shows a 7pt Bush lead with Kerry closing the gap. Internals also looked great for Kerry to make even more gains but he wasn't yet within 2pts.

[saracat]

4. The internals say tommorrow. 2 points.

[unfrigginreal]

7. Good to hear!

:thumbsup:

[Fluffdaddy]

8. Polls link

http://kvoa.com/Global/story.asp?S=2458260

[Fluffdaddy]

5. The Link is down but here is the Quote. May be BS since the Link is dead.

Kerry Forces Pull out of Arizona (after dropping ads in MO, WVA)
Hotline/National Journal subscription only


The reailty of how Arizona fits into the national picture was underscored on Tuesday.

America Coming Together transferred its Arizona director to Florida, actor Martin Sheen scrapped a 10/23 event in Scottsdale to stump in Ohio and both campaigns have redeployed staffers from Arizona to more competitve states.

BC 04 spokesman Danny Diaz said 'numerous' field operatives being reassigned on the heels of polling showing that Bush continues to lead Arizona and in light of decisions by Kerry and liberal advocacy groups to cut advertising and other resources to the state.

KE 04 spokeswoman Susan Walitsky said that Kerry campaign workers have been moved from Arizona to neighboring battleground states, maintaining that 'there is no vacumn in Arizona.'


(Excerpt) Read more at http://nationaljournal/pubs/hotline

[Fluffdaddy]

6. Sorry guys the more I read it the more it sounds like a GOP dirty trick

And Bull shit News story. Bad spelling an all................Sorry

[izzie]

9. Where is McCain and what is he doing?

Besides getting kisses from Bush and riding around on air force one that is.I thought he was to bring in Az.

[texasmom]

10. only 7 point lead for Bush

Article says that Independents are going for Kerry.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1021poll21.html

Also from the article:
In purely mathematical terms, the 7-point margin returns the race to tossup status for the first time since a Republic Poll measured a 3-point difference in August.

Because the margin of error for a sampling of 600 people is plus or minus 4 percentage points, the results mean Bush could have anywhere from 43 to 51 points, and Kerry could have 36 to 44 points.



And...
One anomaly of the poll was that among voters in the 2000 election, 55 percent said they voted for Bush and 37 percent for Al Gore. The actual result in Arizona was much closer, 52-46.

What the difference might mean is open to many interpretations, Bowie said, but one possibility is that the sampling, although random, encountered a larger base of Bush supporters and that Kerry could be closer than the numbers reflect.

[flpoljunkie]

11. 47-40 with 13 per cent undecided, and Kerry moved up 3.

Who knows, with so many undecided and JK on the move. I believe it is possible for JK to win in Arizona.

"In purely mathematical terms, the 7-point margin returns the race to tossup status for the first time since a Republic Poll measured a 3-point difference in August.

Because the margin of error for a sampling of 600 people is plus or minus 4 percentage points, the results mean Bush could have anywhere from 43 to 51 points, and Kerry could have 36 to 44 points."

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/...

[saracat]

12. I got my figures from a Campaign STaff Conference Call!

Numbers are much closer than they appear!

[vet_against_Bush]

13. Oh my frickin Gawd! weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee nt

[jerryster]

14. Sorry to disagree

Just went to Time's battleground website. Bush has the lead in both polls cited, although one shows 14% undecided (and it's a couple of weeks old). The more recent one is tighter but still shows Bush with a 5 point lead. Hard to overcome at this date, but not impossible. Still, I think it would be a huge and wonderful surprise if Kerry comes out on top in AZ. The good news is that he can win without it. If he does take AZ Bush would be screwed.

[saracat]

16. Time is a junk Reug poll disgard it!