DemocracyInaction
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Thu Oct-21-04 07:36 AM
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57% Dems vs. 50% Repubs--could be a very important stat |
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Bumped into an intereting stat within that Gallup Poll that could make all the difference in this election. 57% of Dems said that they would be "very, very upset" (the polls words)if Kerry lost and they had Bush again as president while 16% of Dems said it wouldn't make much difference to them one way or the other. By the same token, 50% of Repubs said they would be "very, very upset" if Bush lost and Kerry became president while something like 18% of repubs said it wouldn't make much difference to them. (Now factor in on top of this that Gallup OVER samples republicans).
This says to me that Dems are more fired up and determined to get rid of Bush than the Repubs are fired up to stay with Bush. And, we know that with these polls dead on tied that turnout is going to be the key. I also cannot help but recalling Craig Crawford's comments of the other day about having traveled to these battleground states for months and seeing that the Dems have a real organization in place to turn out the votes; but that the Repubs who wanted to do the same just haven't had the success and are basically good at only getting crowds out to rallies when Bush is in town. Anyway, this dumb little stat could tell us more about what is going to happen on Nov. 2nd than anything else the polls are saying.
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DemocracyInaction
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Thu Oct-21-04 07:56 AM
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1. Bump---check out the 'fired up factor'---can't be good news to Bush n/t |
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