a way for kucinich/braun/sharpton to do well, or even win, in Iowa

[cryofan]

The NY Times has an interesting article on "Iowa's Dark Art of Caucusing" this morning.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/13/politics/campaigns/13CAUC.html?pagewanted=2&hp

Here are the paragraphs that interest me:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The chairman of the caucus determines the "viability" threshold for groups backing each presidential candidates, which in most cases will be 15 percent of the number of people attending. Caucusgoers then have 30 minutes to divide into preference groups for the candidates. If some groups supporting candidates do not reach the 15 percent level, those people then have up to half an hour to realign with other campaigns.

(((comment: note that it does not say they have to realign with campaigns with greater than 15%)))


At this stage, the pressure will be on the newly liberated caucusgoers to enlist with another candidate. In a deeper layer of strategy, some participants might even align with a candidate they are not that wild about to cut into the count of those who most threaten their first choice
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


Here is a possible scenario:

In the typical precinct, the first count establishes the following percentages:

Dean 27%
Geppy 24%
Kerry 12%
Edwards 10%
Clark 8%
Lieberman 7%
Kucinich 6%
Braun 4%
Sharpton 2%
Total 100%

Now, in the realignment stage, because only dean abd geppy have more than 15%, the voters for everyone but Dean & Geppy have to realign with "other campaigns". However, if they realign with Dean or Geppy, that just gives Dean and Geppy a bigger delegate lead going into New Hampshire, and it makes it harder for their own candidates to catch up. So it would be in their best interest to align with a candidate whose campaign has low polling numbers. So, therefore the voters for Kerry 12%, Edwards 10%, Clark 8%, and Lieberman 7% (totalling 37%) should align with Kucinich 6% (needs 9 to make 15), Braun 4% (needs 11 to make 15), or Sharpton 2% (needs 13).

So, therefore if you divvy up the 37% total of Kerry 12%, Edwards 10%, Clark 8%, and Lieberman 7%, you can give each of Kucinich, Braun, and Sharpton at least 15%.

Even better, in order to STEAL THE SPOTLIGHT from either Dean or Gephardt (whichever wins), the Kerry, Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman voters should be urged by campaign workers at the causcuses to ALL go over to only one of either Kucinich, Braun, and Sharpton. So since Kucinch is likely to do better than Braun, and Sharpton, by going over during realign to Kucinch. If all 37% of the Kerry, Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman voters go over to Kucinich, then Kucinich wins Iowa with 6+37 = 43%

And this would be a HUGE embarrasment for Dean, especially. It would really put the entire 2004 primary campaign in turmoil, thus giving Kerry, Edwards, Clark, and Lieberman campaigns a fresh breath of air.

All this strategizing could be coordinated by cellphone on the evening of the 19th.

What say ye? Be I mad?

[iowapeacechief]

1. Most people don't get it yet!

Which is why most polls and predictions are meaningless. I've taken part in every Iowa caucus, so I know.