Scenario for winning without OH or FL

[ollie3]

Take a look at an interactive electoral college map and play with it. If Kerry loses both OH and FL, he CAN still win, but it gets tougher. We need a plan B.

If Kerry wins New England, PA, WI, MN, IA, NM, and states he is solid in....then Kerry has 264 electoral votes. He needs 270. Winning Nevada brings him to 269, and in this scenario it goes to the House and Bush wins. This means Kerry needs to win one of the following: Arkansas, Missouri, W Va,CO, Va, NC. If Kerry wins NV he can lose NH and preserve the same votes, but NV is not enough to bring it up to 270.

Good news/bad news. Good news is that Bush does NOT have these states all locked up. Bad news is that it appears the Kerry campaign has withdrawn from most all of them.

Even if Kerry wins Ohio or Florida, he doesn't have it locked up. His leads in MN, WI,NM, NH and IA are razor thin, and he can't count on all of them.

I am not as pessimistic as it may sound. I think Kerry has an excellent shot at winning either Ohio or Florida. I feel that WI, MN, and IA are going to go Kerry by a hare.

I keep coming back to Arkansas. It has enough votes to bring the total to 270 in the above scenario. It is no doubt a cheaper media buy than some of the other states. Plus which both Bill Clinton and Wes Clark are from Arkansas, that could be spotlighted.

I understand the campaign has to put its money where it will do the most good, and that OH and FL are HUGE. However, I would feel better if the campaign had a strategy for winning the electoral numbers without either.

[Not Me]

1. Don't forget that CO will likely split their Electoral votes

with 5 to Bush and 4 to Kerry if their proportional measure passes.

[ollie3]

2. Right, but last I heard, the Amendment in CO was behind in polls

[Ediacara]

4. I thought that it looked like it was failing by a 3:2 margin...

[lancdem]

3. I read somewhere that Kerry's not running ads in a state

doesn't mean he's giving up on it. I think it was a Tom Oliphant column. He talked about how Kerry's people on the ground in Arizona think their grass-roots operation makes the state competitive, and ad money could be better spent elsewhere.

[Ediacara]

5. Plus.....

Just because he's pulled ads from a state, doesn't mean he's not playing ads. He's pulled ads from West Virginia, but I suspect most West Virginians get at least SOME TV from Ohio and Pennsylvania (or both), so it's not like we've given up on WV, we're just spending money more wisely.