Marist Poll- Bush 49- Kerry 48 Nad(i)r 1/ Kerry 50-Bush 43 In Battleground

[DemocratSinceBirth]

I trust these guys...

www.realclearpolitics.com

The person who conducts the poll, Lee Miringoff is the president of the National Council of public Polls....



on edit- I trust Lee Miringoff....

[Beetwasher]

1. That's A Sweet, Sweet Poll

Thanks!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. It's Going To Be Close But We're In The Game...

Look at the Red Sox...


Would you have liked their hand when they were down 3-0...


It's an omen baby....

[Beetwasher]

6. You HAD To Bring The Sox Into This!!!!

Grrrrr...This Yankee fan is not amused!!! ;-)

Let it never be said Beet's a bad sport. If it means a good omen for Kerry, GO SOX!!!

[dennis4868]

20. Red Sox.....

have not won anything...only a trip to the wordl series where the curse will live on!

Hopefully Kerry will have better luck than the sox!

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

2. Link is broken

nt

[MassLiberal]

4. retype it "realclearpolitics" - it works

[Ediacara]

5. here it is

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[DemsUnited]

7. Here's another link to the Marist poll

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

Good stuff, heh?

[papau]

8. Marist "Battleground states" seem a larger group than those still in play

17 States are "Battleground"

Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia.

[lancdem]

13. I think that's the battleground list

most pollsters are using, except Colorado probably should be in there.

[papau]

22. Thanks - the broadcast folks use 8 to 10 states, but if it has the same

meaning to all the polling groups, we can compare and follow trends!

:-)

[lancdem]

9. It's actually 48-47 among LVs and 47-47 among RVs

according to the Marist press release. http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/

I'm not sure where realpolitics got 49-48.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Somethings Are Peculiar And Missing...

The peculiar things

Kerry is losing by twelve in the burbs.. Gore only lost by two... I guess it's how the pollster defines suburbs...


If Kerry is up by ten among women and down by ten among men wouldn't he be leading in the horserace because women make up a larger part of the electorate than men..




The Missing Thing

Where's the breakdown by race?

[lancdem]

18. I was thinking what you were about the gender gap

This poll may have interviewed about the same numbers of men and women, but more women than men will certainly vote on election day. Generally, though, this poll pretty much confirms what the vast majority of national polls show: a tied race with Bush at about 47 percent, with most of the undecideds being independents who should overwhelmingly swing to Kerry. I also like how Kerry has really consolidated his support among Dems in this poll, and only loses 8 percent to Bush. That's several points better than Gore did.

[Gloria]

10. I was just wondering last night when this little

bald man would pop up...He always seems so "urgent" in a cute sort of way...LOL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Trust That Organization...

They busted NBC and Frank Luntz for his faux focus groups..

[Gloria]

14. 10/7 poll? It's OLD!!! taking a peek at the details,

1038 respondents. Using telephone exchanges weighted by population. OK.
825 RV with a MOE of 3.5%
642 LV with a MOE of 4%
Crosstabs MOE higher of course..due to way smaller samples!

At least they're upfront about their MOE for the breakouts.

However, it is a pretty old poll, if that's the latest one they have....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. The Poll Was Conducted 10-17 to 10-19

The 10-7 was just a reference point for excluding Nader from where he's not on the ballot...

[kostya]

15. When you say you trust these guys do you mean

Marist or RealClear? If the latter, then I invite you to read some of their commentary. They are decidely on the right.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. The Man Who Conducted The Poll

The realclearpolitics guy is a puke....

But he's a puke with a good stuff at his site...

[59millionmorons]

19. I dont trust them as much as you(2000-Bush 49-Gore 44)

They obviously are oversampling republincans to be that far off.

http://www.aapor.org/default.asp?ID=39&page=news_and_issues/aapor_newsletter_detail#table1

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. According To That Chart I Should Trust Fox...

I trust his poll in the sense that if it is wrong it is a honest mistake....

That's all...

[DaveinMD]

23. small sample

for a national poll. But its consistent with other results we've seen recently.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

24. The internals on this poll are fascinating

Kerry gets 34% of the Evangelical Christian vote, surprisingly enough (to Bush's 60%).

Kerry is killing in first time voters, 53% to 35%.

People with money worries prefer Kerry, 62%-30%, no surprise, while people with no money worries prefer Bush by about the same margin.

As for what people like about their candidate, "Issues" is the #1 for Kerry supporters, but way down on the list (6%) for Bush supporters. This is the most outrageous of all. Since when did stance on the issues become a non-issue for half of the electorate?

A bit more:

67% of those polled say they are tuning into this election, up from 51% 4 years ago. This is very good news.

On the other hand, 55% of those polled say they believe * will win. That's gotta be Fox's fault. I'd like to see a bit more optimism!