Let me know if I am wrong here Re: polling in BG states

[michigandem2]

when the polls say that Kerry is leading in battleground states 50-43 that is a cumilative of all the battleground states?

[Goldmund]

1. Yes

Kerry is leading in the battlegrounds, and obviously in the blue states -- yet the national poll numbers are either tied or have the Chimp slightly ahead. So, that suggests that he's up by huge margins in the red states. Which is just fine by me.

[foo_bar]

2. Kerry wins EV, loses PV?

That would be haha funny.

[Goldmund]

4. It would

Except it's not going to happen. I think that Shrub is in a lot worse shape than the head-to-head polls suggest. His JA is in the low-to-mid 40s, and in head-to-head polls he can't break 47-48. Turnout will be bigger than ever. Absent some huge upsets that totally change the dynamic (a terrorist attack, Osama, "revelation" that Kerry had a sex-change surgery, CIA releasing the report WH is trying to supress, I dunno), Kerry will win by 5 or 6 points in the PV. That's my prediction at this point.

[Ediacara]

3. According to that poll

The battleground states include 17 states. Nine of the battleground states were carried by less than seven points by Former Vice President Gore in 2000. The Gore states include Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin. Eight of the battleground states were carried by less than seven points by President Bush in 2000. The Bush states include Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and West Virginia. Gore’s home state of Tennessee is not included.

Kerry has substantial leads in Michigan, Oregon, and Washington, which could be skewing the results A LITTLE. It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where Bush is ahead by more than 1% in any battleground state, yet Kerry leads the battlegrounds overall by 7%.

It looks good!