Can Kerry win it all without Ohio or Florida?

[BurtWorm]

Has anyone done the math?

(I think he's going to win Ohio.)

[Parche]

1. yes

He has to get every state Gore got, plus NH to win
Looks like Nevada is in play now, so that helps
But it will come downt to OHIO

[BurtWorm]

2. Of course!

Why didn't I think of that? :dunce:

[kostya]

9. No, because EVs are apportioned differently this year EOM

[carpetbagger]

14. That won't do it. we need 10 extra votes.

Census adjustments changed the 271-267 allotment to what would now be 278-260. Remember Bush gets the tiebreaker (House of Representatives, one vote per state delegation).

That means 10 EV. New Hampshire (4) seems in the bag. If Ohio and Florida go to Bush by election or by graft, that leaves Arkansas (6) as the most likely sleeper. A big turnout could push the tide over in that place.

So it's unlikely, but possible. We would have to hold NM and the close midwestern states, but a national tide in our favor, combined with graft in Ohio, could give this outcome.

[David Dunham]

3. No because he is focusing on OH and FL over other states.

He needs to go to NH and WV and other states too.

[lancdem]

8. He's focusing on them because they have the most EVs

The strategy is this: Both sides agree that whoever wins two of three of the following states, PA, OH and FL, will win the election. Period.

[tedoll78]

4. Yes.

The Gore States hold 260EVs.
Add NH to make it 264EVs.

Then come-up with 6EVs from the following states:
- AR (6EVs)
- NC (15EVs)
- MO (11EVs)
- NV (5EVs)
- AZ (10EVs)
- CO (9 or 5 or 4EVs)

[Tweed]

7. He has to win Ohio or Florida

I wouldn't count on winning any of the states you listed. Just like if I were Bush I wouldn't count on winning Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, or New Mexico

[ollie3]

10. Exactly!

Bush does not have all of these states locked up. A victory in at least one of them is possible. I feel we need to work on a strategy of winning at least one of them. Hate to put all of our eggs in one basket of OH/FL.

[tedoll78]

18. The good thing about this year..

the campaign is so flush with money that our necessity to pick-and-choose which states to run ads in is limited. We can afford to advertise in almost all of the swing states..

[soleft]

5. he can afford to lose only one

If he lost both he would have to pick up a red state with at least 10 or more EV's, and I don't know how likely it is that he could pick up AZ, TN, VA or NC.

[Not Me]

6. I think he's going to get FL

Social Security, gas prices, flu vaccine shortages...all very important to Seniors on fixed incomes.

[The Chronicler]

11. I think he can win FL (especially if he campaigns with THE BILL)

[tomfodw]

12. It would be very difficult without both

If he wins either, he has a very good chance.

Of course, if he wins both, he's in.

[sampsonblk]

13. OH and PA are going for Kerry, but then what?

But even after that, I have a hard time seeing how the math works in our favor. It seem like Kerry is focusing on the big three (OH, PA and FL) and letting some other blue states slip into the undecided column.

Am I seeing this wrong?

[goodhue]

16. WI, IA and MN

If they all go for Kerry, then no need for Florida.
If they don't, then Florida is all but essential.

Kerry of course is focussed on WI, IA and MN as his travel schedule indicates.

[sampsonblk]

17. Does that get us to 270?-nt

nt

[BurtWorm]

24. This map helps

http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index_CALCULATOR.html

[goodhue]

15. Not likely unless he wins Missouri

Best to win them both and take Missouri too.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. Yes. See this map I made

Just give us Gore states plus Arkansas and NH.

[BurtWorm]

20. I think we're getting NH. Don't know about AR

But maybe NV and WV?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

23. We need both Nevada and WV to break the tie then. eom

[goodhue]

25. possible nightmare scenario

Much too close.
Also one ME vote could break for Bush and we would have 269-269 tie.
Best win OH, FL or MO.

[pabloseb]

26. ME can split 3/1

The map assume ME will be 4/0 but that's not a sure thing. If ME splits 3/1 then this is a tie = * wins.

[Greyskye]

27. Heh

That's the exact same scenario that I made. See post #22. :evilgrin:

[pabloseb]

21. Bottom line

If Kerry doesn't win OH nor FL, he loses (mathematically he could win, but in practice it's not realistic).
If Kerry wins OH, it's likely he'll win. He can afford to lose 10 EVs from blue states (or 9, depending on how ME splits). But if he carries NH, then he can afford to lose 13/14 blue EVs. So he can lose WI as long as he keeps IA and NM, etc, etc.
If Kerry wins FL, even if he loses OH, he wins (again, mathematically it's not sure but it is from a practical viewpoint).

[goodhue]

29. He needs either OH, FL or MO.

Don't forget MO. He can loose both OH & FL, so long as he wins MO (and WI). But best to win all three.

[Greyskye]

22. Absolutely! Try this:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

This is an interactive Electoral College map. If you use the 'undecided voters break for the challanger' meme (on all but Florida and Ohio - which by this theory will go to Kerry) you still get a Kerry win of 270 to 268 EV! :bounce:

My personal prediction is Kerry over Bush - 290 to 248. :evilgrin:

[milkyway]

28. Kerry wins with EITHER Ohio or Florida. If he gets neither, he can still

win, but he'll need Minnesota, Wisconsin, and pick up another state like Colorado, Arizona, Missouri or Virginia. This is all assuming that he definitely holds Pennsylvania (which he will).

[milkyway]

30. Don't forget Colorado. They might apportion their 9 electors. If they do,

assume bush gets 5 and Kerry 4. This gives bush only +1 in Colorado rather than +9. I read somewhere the other day that right now it's likely splitting the electors will happen (polling with a lead over 10% in favor). The repugs will scream like monkeys and go all the way to the not-so-supreme court.

[kentuck]

31. If he could win OH and PA, he could take it all...

without FL, imo...

[BurtWorm]

32. That much I think is very clear.

If he wins OH and PA (and NM, WI, MN and OR) he can lose NH, FL, IA, and CO.