Why they fight so hard for Ohio and Florida

[NewYorkerfromMass]

Because if we win them we need hardly any other states. The Electoral Map is weighted towards Dems.

[Tweed]

1. Yeah and Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota are

pretty much in our camp. The numbers are close, but the trend is our way. Minnesota will not go to Bush.

[Beetwasher]

4. Man, I Hope So!

Those are the three I'm concerned about and when they firm up, I will breath much easier...

[tedoll78]

6. I was about to say..

The math works such that Kerry can win Ohio and New Hampshire and still afford to lose one of Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Iowa. Minnesota looks really nice right now. In Iowa, we have registered 50000 new voters (the GOP? 9000). Wisconsin has teetered on the Brink of Redness, but Zogby's latest poll has Kerry up 5 there. This carries the assumption that he wins all other Gore states, which is looking like a really safe bet right now.

I think it'll end-up going-down like this:
- Kerry wins all Gore states, including WI/MN/IA.
- The exception to above? NM is in danger. Still, Kerry wins either NV or NM.
- Kerry wins NH easily.
- Kerry wins OH.

This nets Kerry 284EVs. Enough for victory. And all he'd have to do is stave-off trumped-up court cases against him in states worth more than 14EVs.

[michigandem2]

13. i hope he wins them decisively....if they are close like they were last

time...its going to court

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota = FL's 27 EVs

and then of course there is Oregon and New Mexico (12 total) which are both soild Kerry now. Together they can counter a Wisconsin loss.

[Worst Username Ever]

2. That is really an amazing map.

You know we are going to get my home state, MN, and probably Iowa, Wisconsin, possilibly New Mexico, definetely oregon, and probably a couple others in there. Florida OR Ohio, I think we have it.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. Yes and Ohio is looking good for us lately

meaning they have got to be sweating big time.
The allowance of the provisional ballots was a back breaker to their disenefranchisement plans in Ohio.

[Beetwasher]

3. Yeah, Which Is Why We Have To Write Off FL

There is no way in hell they will allow us to take FL, regardless of the vote totals, and they will steal it blatantly and brazenly and depend on Jeb to cover it up or the SC to back them up. All you need to know is that they are STILL using the despicable and blatantly flawed felons list for example. That's how blatant they are being about stealing FL.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. No. Just expect them to do it and show that they did it. eom

[6th Borough]

21. NO!

Just...quit it! I've seen so many of these comments...Florida can definitely go Dem this year.

Sometimes we are our own worse enemy; implying that Florida is locked down for the repubs, another Texas if you will, can only serve to do one thing: ensure that more FL voters will either not vote or vote 3rd party do to their vote not "counting".

[nolabels]

5. That is interesting, but I think there will be more blue in it

Painting is so much fun when you see how other colors can contrast each other :D

[Rambis]

9. Iowa will not go to the chimp!

No way in hell! I know 10 people who voted for bush last time who are for Kerry. A couple that I have been working with were republicans. The caucus in our town that was usually 10 people was 97. when Harkin shows up there are 200 people and when Leach shows up 25. At a chimp rally last week there were 3,000 invitees, 4,000 showed up to greet Kerry at the airport. Friends don't let friends vote chimp!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

10. I know. I am just showing the extreme GOP nightmare scenario

The map is intended to show just how crucial it is for them to do everything possible (incl. steal) Ohio and Florida.

[Cha]

14. Thanks for your energy and your optimism,

Rambis! :dem: WE appreciated it here in New York :dem:

[fujiyama]

11. Apparently

the Bush campaign isn't seriously contesting any state on the west coast.

This time it will be the solid left coast. We'll comfortably win all three. Nader is irrelevant in OR this time. Will he be on the ballot there? I haven't heard anything about it recently.

I'd say they have a better chance of keeping NH than flipping OR, so if we win OH and FL, we're at 273. I also don't think Bush will win MN. It's close, but Kerry's been consistantly ahead.

[West Coast Democrat]

12. Don't worry about Oregon!

[TrogL]

16. Can we count on Washington State?

Spokane's pretty right wing.

[Bucky]

17. Yeh, but Seattle is bigger than Spokane

And lots of conservatives are bailing on Bush, if not voting for Kerry

[6th Borough]

22. ...Can we count on Maryland?

I haven't followed that state much, now or in the past. How do they trend, historically and during this cycle?

[baltodemvet]

23. Yes you can!

Maryland will go blue--don't lose any sleep over that.

In my youth, MD was almost completely Democratic with a combination of "Civil War" and "New Deal" Democrats. That made for some interesting state-wide primaries (and occasionally allowed a republican to win--remember Agneeeeew?) But MD always went democratic in presidential elections.

The civil war dems are no more--they've all gone over to the GOP but they've been more than replaced by increased minority participation in politics so Dems still have an edge. Note that both of our senators arte Democtrats--and I'm proud to say both voted against the war resolution.

[Spirochete]

24. Every state touching the Pacific Ocean

will go to Kerry. Hopefully including Alaska

[VOX]

18. Even giving all of Gore's states + NH to Kerry, he still needs OH or FL

I've fiddled with this on interactive electoral maps over and over.

Kerry will need Ohio or Florida, IMO, to win this thing.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. Nope. I came up with a winning scenario where we lose those 2

[0rganism]

26. Plus, if the CO ballot measure passes, that's another 4

That could substitute directly for NH, or combine with a surprise NV pickup to cover OR, CT, IA or AR. One good thing about this race, We Got Options.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

27. Interesting thing about apportioned vs. winner take all

is that you want winner take all wherever you have one dominant demographic "ghettoized" in a small geographic area.
Colorado's proposal (if passed) will definitely help us this year, as we will peel off those 4 EV's, but as Denver and other cities there grow, it will hurt us as they keep their rural votes when we are winning the state outright.

[secular_warrior]

30. I don't see that scenario happening

If we were to lose both OH and FL, it is unlikely we would win any states that are ideologically similar or to the right of them.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

31. No No. It assumes they STEAL them.

Ideologically we should win this in a landslide, but assume that they steal what Kerry will have rightfully won as Gore did.
I am worried about New Mexico for instance....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x923632

[6th Borough]

19. Also, there is a limited # of EV's. FL is still growing.

I wouldn't be surprised if FL surpasses NY in terms of population and Electoral College votes after the 2010 census. If FL were to go consitantly Dem in the long term, the repubs would be in serious trouble.

The only major state they would have in lockdown would be Texas.

I predict FL will gain EC votes through (at least) the 2030 census.

[liberalpragmatist]

25. And Texas may be a swing state in 10 years

Assuming Hispanic voters keep flowing in and assuming that out-of-staters continue moving in to places like Austin, the demographics of Texas are going to start looking more and more like California.

It'll probably never be as secure as CA - even when California was generally Republican, it was never as conservative as Texas. But in ten years, Texas will surprise some people.

[tedoll78]

28. I must agree with you.

And I think we're hitting-on why the GOP is sooo desperate about this election. Demographics in this country are changing so rapidly in our favor that we'll probably have an absolute lock on the Electoral College by 2016.

They know that this election, combined with the election of 2008, is one of the last chances to put pawns up on the Supreme Court. If they lose, it will be at least 18 years since a GOP president has nominated anyone to the high court. With the changing demographics, they're scared to death that the end really is near.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

29. kick