Is Bush mathematically eliminated?

[detroit]

I still don't see an Electoral map that gets Bush to 270 Electoral votes.

Kerry is looking good in Florida and Ohio. In the swing states Bush "leads" in the "red" swing states are razor-thin. I expect Kerry to take Ohio and Florida at the end of the day and to get 300-plus Electoral votes overall.

<http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html>

<http://www.electoral-vote.com/>

Also, most major NEW polls put the popular vote as a dead heat.
Look at the new AP poll: <http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041021/ap_on_el_pr/president_ap_poll&cid=694&ncid=1963&sid=96378798>

Also see: www.zogby.com <http://www.zogby.com> and <http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/usapolls/PZ041021.htm>

Bush might or might not get the popular vote. But he will not be reelected.

[papau]

1. If WI and New Mexico and FL go Bush, while losing Ohio - he wins

so this is no time to slow down the effort!

:-)

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. I expect a landslide as well.

Especially when you consider 2/3rds of undecideds break to the challenger AND that the polls do not account for A) record breaking Dem turnout nor do they take into account B) cell-phone only users, the vast majority of whom are Dems.

[Journeyman]

4. Is there empirical evidence young cell phone users are Dems?. . .

I suspect they are, but haven't seen any hard evidence for my belief. Have you seen any studies on this?

[tcfrogs]

5. I keep arguing this too

I know a number of people who are of both parties that are cell-only. I don't think it's just a Dem phenomenon. No pollster has made any great arguments about the polling population that is being ignored yet. Until I see some empirical evidence, I am skeptical about the effects.

[Zero Gravitas]

10. Zogby

I saw an analysis recently on this from (IIRC) Zogby that said cell phone only people are 2.5 to 1 Dems.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

7. How bout huge numbers of young people being liberals?

And thus, if they are YOUNG people using cell phones, they must also be YOUNG democrats using cell phones. That's a simple leap of logic there.

[AntiCoup2K4]

8. Well, I am for one

If you consider 38 to still be young, I guess :evilfrown:

[KansDem]

19. 38?

Hell, yeah, you're still young! You have two more years of "youthful indiscretion" left before you have to become "responsible."

Party on!!! :party:

I was 38 once; for about a year if I remember correctly...

[MrBadExample]

21. Well, then.

I feel pretty good in that case--I turn 34 on Saturday. :) (I'm also one of those cell-phone-only people.)

[Hoosier Democrat]

3. Have a hard time thinking we'll take Florida

In Florida, the Banana Republicans will do everything in their power to steal the state again. Ohio is looking good for us right now, and we pretty much have New Hampshire.

Virginia could be a sleeper this year. This bastion of Republican red is surprisingly close this year, with Kerry only down 3%. I think polls in Virginia close early (7pm). If Virginia suuddenly goes blue on Nov. 2 it could be a LONG night for the Bushies.

[pabloseb]

6. Florida is certainly within reach

Kerry closed the gap; the election is tied and Kerry has the momentum. If Kerry wins by 2+ points, it'll be very difficult for the repug machine to steal the election.

[wadestock]

9. Not quite yet...but the momentum has been going that way since the debates

I do watch/read http://www.electoral-vote.com/ daily...although a couple here have thrown this guy under the bus I find it the most interesting, and it provides a means for you to do your own calculations if you want.

There's no question there has been a positive Kerry trend since the debates.

Couple this with THE CHOICE on PBS and on-line, and the mass distribution of F/911...and I think there is some real core support going in Kerry's favor.

[featherman]

11. Bush has ALWAYS had a tougher road to 270 than Kerry

It was obvious in 2000 also but Bush pulled an INCREDIBLE sweep by capturing pretty much all of what I considered battleground at that time.:
NV, AZ, CO, MO, AR, LA, OH, WV, FL, TN, NH (losing only NM barely)
The political equivalent of drawing to an inside straight flush.
(NOTE: I never gave Bush much of a realistic shot in OR, WA, IA, WI, MN, PA, ME in 2000 although several came closer than I liked)

BUSH will pretty much need to duplicate this odd feat again and I don't see it.

Kerry needs to hold the upper Midwest and NM again then add NH for a 264 "base". After that it comes down to whether Kerry wins 6 or more EV's from these in any available combination:
NV, AZ, CO, MO, AR, OH, WV, FL

[hippiegranny]

20. I REALLY REALLY REALLY

want to give AZ to Kerry. Maybe it's because I live in a big city, but I see three or four times more bumper stickers and yard signs for Kerry than Booooosh.

I WILL be taking 11/2 off from work and I WILL be working my ass off to get anyone and everyone voting for Kerry to the polls.

[evilqueen]

22. I agree with you.

BUSH will pretty much need to duplicate this odd feat again and I don't see it.

Especially considering in 2000, Bush didn't have all the negatives of these last four years working against him. Negatives being: deficit, unemployment, poverty, and the war.

[AlabamaYankee]

12. Arithmetically Challenged, Perhaps

But it's a bit early to mathematically eliminate him. Personally I will believe the election's finally over and fairly won when President Kerry repeats the oath of office.

[PCIntern]

13. LOOK!

Gore WON Florida's popular vote, both cast and uncast last time. It was close, but it wasn't THAT close if you add all the butterfly ballot, thrown out votes, and everything else those bastards did. Add the motivation of the minority communities and you have a distinct plurality for Kerry.

They're going to have to work harder to steal this one, but don't ever say that we lost Florida. We frigging gave it away.

[central scrutinizer]

14. mathematically speaking

I would say that both the first and second derivatives of Bush's trend line are negative.

[bush equals idiot]

Overseas ballots.

There are some 4 million overseas ballots that have been requested. A record number. The government is trying to drag their feet getting the ballots to these people because most are going to be Democrat.

They're rushing the ballots to the military because they think two out of three will vote for the hard worked asshole. I personally don't believe that myself.

But anyway, this is obviously going to be embarrassing and legally challenged if these ballots do not get to the other 4 million overseas voters (these are citizens, but currently living overseas) in time for them to return the ballots before the deadline.

4 million citizen votes living overseas. Do not forget that major torpedo coming right at Bush.

[Anaxamander]

15. Here's what you'll see on Nov 2

Take this baby to the bank.

http://home.comcast.net/~robertnorman118/2004_Election.bmp

[greenohio]

16. Wanna bet?

The repukes are betting on their guy.

http://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_amd.jsp?selConID=none&z=21/10/2004-20:00:02#

[AngryAmish]

17. yes

[kostya]

18. That's my take on it too, BUT...

Dems can't get complacent, we need the ALL voting.

[DrWeird]

23. Question about Colorado.

I read somewhere that Colorado passed a bill so that in a presidential election the electoral votes are split to reflect how the people voted instead of all the electoral votes going to the winner. Is this true? Because on that map it shows all nine electoral votes going to Bush.