"There remains a relatively large bloc of swing voters who are critical of the president but who still cannot comfortably back Senator John Kerry." This can become a big problem, frustrated swing voters simply not voting at all, or some even voting for Nader (which the asshole Nader is counting on), or still and even worst, frustrated swing voters just saying "aw fuck it" and voting for the incumbent Bush and his fascist administration.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/21/opinion/21kohut.html?oref=loginThe round of national surveys taken after the third presidential debate indicates that the polls are not going to give us a clear picture of who will win the election until the final days of the campaign, if then. This is not because polling no longer works - it's because voter opinion is highly unstable. While many Americans are strongly committed to re-electing President Bush or getting rid of him, there remains a relatively large bloc of swing voters who are critical of the president but who still cannot comfortably back Senator John Kerry.<Snip>
After the second debate, the race was pretty much even, with some movement toward Mr. Kerry. This week the picture is much cloudier, even though voters thought Mr. Kerry won the third debate. The race remains tied in the New York Times/CBS News Poll and Pew Research Center surveys, but the president has moved to a significant lead in the Newsweek, Gallup and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Besides conflicting bottom lines, the surveys also provide an array of contradictory conclusions about voter opinions. Some suggest that the debates had no impact on the race, while others say they strengthened support for Mr. Kerry. Some find the president's approval score sinking; others have it stable. Some show a big advantage for Mr. Bush when the samples are narrowed from registered voters to likely voters. Others show a negligible Bush advantage or even a Kerry advantage.
It's worth recalling that four years ago voters were similarly divided between the candidates. But the opinions about Al Gore and Mr. Bush did not bounce around, because there just wasn't all that much enthusiasm for either man. In fact, polls during the Florida recount found majorities saying both candidates would make an acceptable president. Not so in 2004. By every measure, voters tell us this year that they have given the race more thought and are paying more attention to election coverage, and a greater percentage say that it matters who gets elected in November. Yet many still say they are not sure about their choice or they are simply undecided.
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