Consider Bush's previous opponents - then realize how well Kerry is doing!

[TwilightZone]

Ann Richards
John McCain
Al Gore

Remember what the Rove/Bush machine did to those three individuals, and Kerry's performance to date looks all the more impressive.

Ann Richards - one of my favorite politicians - openly praised Bush's (prior) debating skills before debate one. She'd debated Bush in Texas, of course, and she came away impressed by his ability to stay on message and to BS his way into the governor's mansion.

Post-debate, she was elated for Kerry, of course, but she seemed to be in almost complete disbelief at Bush's horrible performance. This wasn't the same guy she debated. Kerry demolished him.

John McCain was "accused" of having a black child in push polling in SC, among other vile tricks unleashed by the Bush cabal. McCain's candidacy never recovered. Now, the Bush gang has bribed and/or threatened McCain into campaigning for and supporting a man he certainly seems to personally detest.

Al Gore won the popular vote, but didn't win convincingly enough to disallow dirty tricks, faked protests, James Baker, and a right-wing Supreme Court. It should have been a landslide for Gore. His campaign often gets the blame (as it should, in part), but the Bush campaign relentlessly - and successfully - targeted his perceived "exaggerations", while managing to bury their own, more obvious ones.

I personally believe that it was this experience, more than anything, that led Gore to decline running in '04. One trip through the Bush funhouse would be enough for anyone.

Kerry has weathered all storms, most of them pretty effectively. The Bush empire's frustration is obvious, considering that the targets of the Republican attacks are currently a) nice things Kerry said about Mary Cheney, and b) what his wife says on the campaign trail. Of course, they try, but their accusations become more ludicrous and more desperate as time passes.

12 days is a long time, but I'd cautiously opine that the Bush administration has throw pretty much everything they have at Kerry already, and he's in great shape. A tie in the polls is a win on election night, thanks to an edge to Kerry in undecideds.

An October surprise may wait in the wings, but as it stands, Kerry has done remarkably well. I think he'll win convincingly enough so that even the Bush forces of darkness can't steal it away this time.

[displacedtexan]

1. Plus... we've raised more money than God this year!

And we'll raise more if we have to, to see this all the way!

[timezoned]

2. This is what they meant by calling Kerry

"the closer". People near him say he endures EVERYthing, then catches fire at the last moment.

He said on TDS interview that this wasn't even the worst he'd been through. I was simply amazed.

[Cha]

4. Yeah, Welcome to DU..

Kerry's been in Nam with his buddies' life and his life on the line!

[helpisontheway]

6. I will reserve judgement

until he gets past this Sinclair mess....

[TwilightZone]

9. I suspect that much of the potential damage has been blunted

by the negative coverage they've been getting.

Plus, in all honestly, I don't think that yet another negative rehash of Kerry's Vietnam days would have been terribly effective on swing voters and undecideds. Rehashing 30 years ago is for people who can't counter what you've done since.

[Cha]

3. I like your analysis, Twlight..

of bush's past Annihilations.. they got away with doing it THREE Times..and now it's really hard for their tiny brains to comphehend that Kerry isn't going down.

Au Contraire, baby..Kerry is The Closer!

[timezoned]

5. And re October surprise

(maybe I should put this in an Oct Surprise thread?) anyhoo:

I think the whole idea of the October surprise only worked when it was an invisible trick, under the radar. Just the fact that we've talked about it so much has defanged it, anything they tried to pull would be so suspect at this point it could backlash.

And if that sounds far fetched- look at what happened in Spain last election. The government tried to spin the tragedy in a BS light and the voters turned on them for it. NOT because they were afraid, but because the incumbent lied one more time and they got fed up and tossed them out.

[TrogL]

7. We're running out of October

[TwilightZone]

11. I agree. And, I was rather surprised with the Spain outcome.

I agree - I think that the potential effect of an October surprise is blunted because we're all talking about it. Doing it now would look too obvious.

Spain surprised me a bit. I was surprised at how quickly the voting public turned on the incumbents. The polls made it look like an easy win - overnight, the tides turned.

[Jasper 91]

12. The Spanish people were already turning against their Government

Because they disagreed with the deployment of their armed forces in Iraq . The lies by their Government following the Madrid bombings , were just the final nails in their coffin .

[timezoned]

13. But the numbers changed drastically, almost overnight

the government was still ahead before that weekend, I remember it well. The people were unhappy about the war but it didn't seem to be snking the government before that.

Who knows what would have happened, maybe it was the "breaking to the challenger" phenomenon that we're hearing about now, and it would have happened anyway. Don't know.

The RW here was intent on labling it a "victory for tarra", that the populace had caved in to them. The public there roundly rejected that and said no, they lied to us.

[TwilightZone]

15. True. There was a lot of discontent beforehand.

Though, the bombings and the aftermath definitely changed the outcome.

[timezoned]

16. Well, we have a bit of discontent here also ;)

so it's parallel in that way. Any surprise would be very suspect at this point I think. Which just shows the power of having spoken up this time.

[loyalsister]

8. I love to see optimism here!

Great assessment thanks for pointing that out. It is a fact that in relation to other historical indicators, * isn't doing nearly as well as and they want everyone to believe.
I think we owe thanks to Howard Dean for a lot of that. We've got a lot of more young people paying attention. They didn't count on it.

[Cha]

10. That's right..we owe a lot to DEan and

his campaign for getting the ball really rolling!

Has everyone seen moveon.org's last ad for the election?

https://www.moveonpac.org/donate/doesntgetit.html

[ThoughtCriminal]

14. This is why the shrillness and whining are so extreme

They can't believe how much ground they've lost since 2002 and it's driving the bush-bots nuts.