WP Tracking Poll 10/21 - * 51% Kerry 45%

[rjbny62]

[WI_DEM]

1. an expanding lead for Bush?

BUNK.

this tracking poll is going against almost every other poll, it is an outlyer--or outliar.

[papau]

18. other polls

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/polls/index.html


Other October 21, 2004 Polls as Bush tries to retain Red State Florida, New Hampshire and Ohio:

AP-Ipsos Poll: Kerry Leads by 3 ...49-46 LV's, Bush's approval rating at 47

Marist Poll: John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 47 percent of nation-wide RV's, approval rating at 49 percent of RV's.

Harris Poll: Kerry Ahead by 7 in 17 Swing States, Down 2... 48-46.. Nation-wide

Pew Research PRC Poll: John Kerry and George Bush are tied at 45 percent RV, battleground states Kerry leads 49-43 percent, and Bush's approval rating is 44

Economist/YouGov Poll: John Kerry leads George Bush 48-46 RV, Bush's approval rating is 44

NBC News/Wall St. Journal Poll: Bush leads Kerry 48-46 percent of nation-wide RV's, with 2 percent for Nader
================================================================
Kerry Leads by 6 in Maine 51-45 LV SurveyUSA Poll

Kerry Ahead by 3 in Ohio 50-47 LV ABC News/TNS Poll

Kerry Up 1% in New Mexico 48-47 LV American Research Group Poll

Kerry Has Edge in NH Bush 47-41 LV Suffolk University/News 7 Poll although tied at 47 LV American Research Group Poll

Kerry Holds Lead in Two Oregon Polls 52-45 RV CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, and 50-44 LV Tribune/KOIN Poll conducted by Research 2000

Kerry WI Poll Leads By 5% 48-43 LV Wisconsin Public Radio Poll, conducted by St. Norbert's College Survey Center, although tied 47 LV's in American Research Group Poll

[Bucky]

21. Thanks for the perspective

Polls are harder to do in the landlineless aughts. There's a growing sleeper base out there and pollsters are really having to scramble to adjust to the new reality.

[papau]

33. glad to help!

:-)

[rjbny62]

2. link

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[michigandem2]

3. this is totally different than the others released today????

I read it wrong...i thought Kerry had 51%

[Renew Deal]

4. It says Kerry is down 6.

[59millionmorons]

6. ABC didnt do so well in 2000

http://www.aapor.org/default.asp?ID=39&page=news_and_issues/aapor_newsletter_detail#table1

[jezebel]

9. How was their daily tracking in 2000? Did it always have Bush up? NT

nt

[59millionmorons]

12. I dont believe they had one

nt

[tritsofme]

36. You can look at all of the polls from 2000 here:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2gen1.htm

The ABC tracking poll is there as well.

[tritsofme]

23. You say this in most of the threads regarding ABC tracking polls

but I think they were one of the best.

They correctly got Bush's and Nader's percentage of the vote, and they had Gore at 45%.

Those other 3% had to go somewhere, and they broke for Gore.

[UNIXcock]

32. The other thing pissing me off is ...

... that it's not just ABC, but nearly EVERY poll out there shows a trend toward *.

... I can laugh off or ignore one, but I can't when all the big-name polls start reporting the same shit :mad:

[59millionmorons]

38. What?

You most not of seen today's AP poll or Marist poll or the latest Harris poll or democracy poll.

[UNIXcock]

41. ... Now you've got me confused

I thought WP got polling data from ABC

... No?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

[tritsofme]

48. WaPo and ABC share data

but apply different LV models.

[SaveElmer]

5. Remember this is Likely voters

They never report the RV.

[hippiegranny]

7. what is with these wild daily swings?

what the hell are the questions being asked? I cannot believe there are this many people changing their mind about this election on a daily basis, especially at this point in time.

[tritsofme]

37. ABC has had it pretty stable the last few weeks

with moves mostly staying within the margin of error.

[mvd]

8. I don't believe it

Outlier.

[Teaser]

11. It's just one day's pro-Bush sample.

Go to www.2.005k.com and look at the tracking poll page.
There is a huge one-day shift in WaPo's RV numbers...from a tie to a 5 point Bush lead. And since then, the RV numbers have been pretty constant. So its obviously a 1 day effect.

Let's see what happens when this rolls off the sample (in 2 more days).

[mvd]

15. Yep, this poll seems to react to days stronger than the others

That's why I don't bother to follow it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. broken link

[troublemaker]

27. .

[troublemaker]

31. link here:

http://2.004k.com/tracking/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. they are showing a fundamentally diffrent race than the others (nt)

hmmm

[pabloseb]

45. That link doesn't seem to work... n/t

[BlueNomad]

10. they are the only ones

with polls remotely showing that...

[LSK]

13. just remember folks, this could be a setup for bush to steal it

[ollie3]

16. Weighted Results....

Read the Wa-Po Methodology section...it clearly says it weighs the results with regard to political party. I would like to see the model they use! I bet it favors the Reps.

[Bonhomme Richard]

14. Come Nov. 2 they are not going to know..........

what hit them.
Prime, Steady, Fire

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Zogby, Marist, AP, TIPP,Rasmussen,Pew

are reporting fundamentally different races..

hmmmmmmmm.........

[Snivi Yllom]

20. not buying it

not for a minute

[Shopaholic]

22. I can still remember the stunned David Brinkley

saying "The Polls Didn't Predict This" over and over again following the Reagan re-election in 1984. The polls were wrong then too.

[tritsofme]

24. Every poll predicted Reagan's reelection

He had double digit leads for basically the entire year of 1984 in almost every major poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. Unfortunately The Polls Were Spot On In 84

I can provide a link if you want...

[West Coast Democrat]

28. Maybe it was the 1980 polls that were wrong?

[Sean Reynolds]

29. It was probably 1980...as Carter was leading Reagan up until the election.

It was a close race but Carter had the lead in a majority of the polls, however I'm not sure if he was at 50%. Then the two debated VERY close to election day and that's when Reagan inched up. I don't think anyone was projecting the kind of blowout that came in 1980.....hm, can history repeat itself?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

34. Nope

The final polls had Reagan winning...

[elperromagico]

25. What's the methodolgy?

I really think there ought to be a rule here: No posting of polls without data about methodology.

Numbers mean nothing if there's no data on how they were obtained.

How big's the sample?

How was the poll weighted for party ID?

And where's your link?

Please don't just throw numbers at us; it doesn't help at all. :D

[rocktivity]

30. BUSH EMPIRE VIRTUAL REALITY ALERT!

Please ignore this poll/story/article, as it is a product of the Bush empire's Faith-Based Reality Manufacturing Program. Details here.

:headbang:
rocknation

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Hmmm

I have a problem with some surveys but aren't you making the same mistake as Bush by ignoring all contrary information...

[mvd]

43. Don't put anything past them

After these 4 years, I don't laugh at conspiracy theories anymore. Manipulating polls is fairly minor compared to what they could do.

[rocktivity]

44. I'm not ignoring it because it's not what I want to hear

I'm ignoring because we don't know how credible it is.

Today's pollingreport.com ranges from Bush leading by as many as eight points to trailing by three. Either there's a whole lot of incompetence going in, or they're acessories (willing or otherwise) in the Bush empire's latest version of "reality."

:headbang:
rocknation

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. Just Average Them Or Throw Out The Outliers (nt)

[rocktivity]

49. Okay...

Bush's lead averages out to 3 per cent, within the MOE, which I guess is good. Or I can get Olympic about it--throw out the lowest (-3) and highest (8) poll numbers, and the average is 3.2 points.

:headbang:
rocknation

[DCal]

39. Among registered voters, Bush is up by 7 ...

51 to 44. These results are not credible. This poll has serious methodological problems. That is probably why they stopped showing the demographic breakdowns two days ago. I don't think they trust their own poll results.

[newyawker99]

40. Hi DCal!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Radical Activist]

42. Likely voters = this poll is meaningless

Any poll of likely voters is completely useless in an election like this where a lot of new and infrequent voters will show up to vote. Throw this one in the trash.