Question 1: Does High Turnout Favor The Democrat?

[elperromagico]

Short Answer 1: Yes.

Long Answer 1: Yes, and here's some proof from 2000:

In 2000, the ten states with the highest percentage of registered voters voting (WY, OR, CT, MN, WA, MD, VA, IA, AZ, and CA) voted for Al Gore over George W. Bush by a margin of 50.75% to 44.45%, and gave the Democratic nominee 81.68% of their electoral votes.

Question 2: Does Low Turnout Favor the Republican?

Short Answer 2: Yes.

Long Answer 2: Yes, and here's some proof from 2000:

In 2000, the ten states with the lowest percentage of registered voters voting (KY, AK, AR, MT, HI, MS, DC, NC, OK, and IN) voted for George W. Bush over Al Gore by a margin of 55.12% to 42.39%, and gave the Republican nominee 89.71% of their electoral votes.

I haven't checked other years - I undoubtedly should and will - but I find this bit of info pretty tantalizing.

[ALago1]

1. Thus goes the conventional wisdom

Thanks for the stats. Very interesting.

Any explanation? Is it that there are simply more dems or liberal minded people in the country and the only problem is getting them motivated and/or interested? That is pretty encouraging.

[elperromagico]

5. I think you're on the right track.

Ever notice how Kerry generally does better in polls of registered voters than in polls of likely voters? Registered voters lean a bit more Democratic than the people who actually vote, and it's reflected in the states with high voter turnout.

[aden_nak]

2. I would say absolutely for another reason.

A high voter turnout usually indicates that new people have registered to vote (more so than the average increase in registered voters to account for the general population aging). Rarely are large groups of people suddenly driven to take part in the political process in order to maintain the Status Quo.

In some ways, that meshes with what you said, since Conservatives represent the Status Quo, and Democrats represent Progress.

[flowomo]

3. pollster John Zogby said this weekend Kerry will win if turnout high....

Here in PA.... high turnout means Dems win, because there are more of them

[elperromagico]

16. Yes, particularly in the big cities.

Philly, NYC, LA, Detroit, et cetera... those big cities help us to win the states.

[whistle]

4. That's been the pattern in the past, but with greater new registrations...

...comes higher likelihood of registration fraud and voter abuses in the form of denial of the vote.

[troublemaker]

6. People vote less in non-competetive states

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. You Nailed It...

And the Democratic party has more casual voters...

That's why Dems always do better in presidential elections than in midterms...


Presidential elections are like the high holidays for Dems.. Just like some people always go to church or synagogue for the high holidays only, some Dems only come out for presidential elections...

[MazeRat7]

7. I really think the new registrations will be the wild card this time.

Lots of new voters on the rolls so something has motivated them to get off their duff and participate this time around. My only guess (hope) it is participation is handing * his pink slip.

MZr7

[KansDem]

9. Here are some figures from "InfoPlease..."

National Voter Turnout in Federal Elections: 1960–2000
Year Voting-age
population Voter
registration Voter turnout Turnout of voting-age
population (percent)
2000 205,815,000 156,421,311 105,586,274 51.3%
1998 200,929,000 141,850,558 73,117,022 36.4
1996 196,511,000 146,211,960 96,456,345 49.1
1994 193,650,000 130,292,822 75,105,860 38.8
1992 189,529,000 133,821,178 104,405,155 55.1
1990 185,812,000 121,105,630 67,859,189 36.5
1988 182,778,000 126,379,628 91,594,693 50.1
1986 178,566,000 118,399,984 64,991,128 36.4
1984 174,466,000 124,150,614 92,652,680 53.1
1982 169,938,000 110,671,225 67,615,576 39.8
1980 164,597,000 113,043,734 86,515,221 52.6
1978 158,373,000 103,291,265 58,917,938 37.2
1976 152,309,190 105,037,986 81,555,789 53.6
1974 146,336,000 96,199,0201 55,943,834 38.2
1972 140,776,000 97,328,541 77,718,554 55.2
1970 124,498,000 82,496,7472 58,014,338 46.6
1968 120,328,186 81,658,180 73,211,875 60.8
1966 116,132,000 76,288,2833 56,188,046 48.4
1964 114,090,000 73,715,818 70,644,592 61.9
1962 112,423,000 65,393,7514 53,141,227 47.3
1960 109,159,000 64,833,0965 68,838,204 63.1

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

Notice 1980, 1984, and 1988...
It looks like the higher the voter turnout, the more likely the Democrat wins. In fact, above 55% and the GOP is history...

[elperromagico]

10. A little more data from 1996.

Bill Clinton won 71.59% of the electoral votes from the ten states with the highest percentage of registered voters voting.

Bob Dole won 65.09% of the electoral votes from the ten states with the lowest percentage of registered voters voting.

[LSK]

11. your question is wrong

You need to ask if high voter turnout favors the challenger or the incumbant??

I would say it favors the challenger because more people are upset and want a change.

High turnout favors challenger.

Low turnout favors incumbant.

Not going by any scientific data, just common sense.

[jcg996]

12. Yes, and it's time to kick it up a notch

I just wanted to add a thought onto this very good point by reminding everyone that we can do some real good in fairly close states where the republican ground game isn't focused. For example, I'm in DC and my friends and I will be working hard for Kerry in northern Virginia until the big day. It's a close race, and we're flying under the radar for a big surprise on Nov. 2.

Let me invite everyone who's in safely blue DC to help out at one of the convenient democrat HQs in the commonwealth of VA:

Go straight to the Jim Moran for Congress (US Rep, 8th congressional district) office where we will be volunteering for presidential race operations, it's a very short walk from the Clarendon metro stop on the Orange line. The metro puts you out on Highland Avenue directly between Wilson Blvd. and Clarendon Blvd. The campaign office is about a block and a half from there.

Peace

JG

[oscar111]

13. jcg, wow, you post detailed directions

and welcome to DU!

[newyawker99]

17. Hi jcg996!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[jcg996]

19. Thanks - good to be here

I've been reading/lurking here for a long time just to recharge my batteries when things are looking down. Thanks for keeping it positive and finding a bright side (even back when Bush's approval rating was 90+%). Keep hope alive.

Keep working hard, everybody. We don't have many days left.

JG

[AP]

14. Republicans vote way more often and pay way more attention to elections.

That's what ACT and Moveon are ALL about: getting people who never vote to vote because everyone knows that Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 among rare voters.

[AP]

15. SO GO PHONE BANK AND PRECICNT WALK THE NEXT TWO WEEKENDS AND

ON NOVEMBER 1ST AND 2ND!!!!!!!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[doni_georgia]

18. Also large voter registration turnout always favors opponent

Lot of themedia whores have been trying to spin this otehrwise, but I think conventional wisdom will hold up.