Hey NBC-Mason Dixon Blew Delaware In 00 By Seventeen Points...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Gimme a fu--ing break....

[dave123williams]

1. Right; Quinnipeac/Marist Institute blew NY elections by 17 when

Hillary ran against Lazio; funny how there's no stories about how full of shit most polling is...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I'd Like To See When The Poll Was Taken To Be Fair...

The Mason Dixon poll was close to the election..

It's hard to blow a prediction by seventeen percentage points...

[dave123williams]

3. The one in NY was the day before the election...

The biggest drubbing in NY State electoral politics history, and the pollsters were, um, off the mark.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I'd Like To See A Link

because I followed the polls and I never thought HRC would lose...

[dave123williams]

5. I didn't think that she'd lose either, but I do remember that poll...

Let me see if I can find it in a google search, or something...

[dave123williams]

6. Here you go:

Looks like they had it 49/44, with 7% undecided the evening before the vote. Plus or minus 3%, I think. She won by 17.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/000912hc.htm

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. That Was A Couple Months Out...

The poll I cited was less than ten days out...


It's a small point....


No biggy...

[dave123williams]

12. Yeah; I just noticed that...

I was digging a little and noticed that they removed the link to the one I was thinking of, the day before the election. Wonder why?

[ISUGRADIA]

16. Their 11-1 poll had Clinton ahead 49-43

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/nyspolls/001029hc.htm

The actual result was Clinton 55% (+6) and Lazio 44% (+1) an 11 point spread.

I can't really fault their results. There was no margain of error listed but say it's three percent, the 11-1 poll was close to the final result if one adjusts accordingly.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. You don't have to retreat that far to condemn Mason Dixon

Try November, 2002.

BURLINGTON — The latest independent poltical poll published Sunday indicated Democrat Douglas Racine had opened a 10-point lead over Republican James Douglas in the race for Vermont governor.

The statewide poll for The Burlington Free Press of 625 likely voters gave Racine 46 percent, Douglas 36 percent and independent Con Hogan 9 percent.

The poll, conducted Wednesday through Friday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. That means there is believed to be a 95 percent certainty that Douglas’ actual support is in the 32 to 40 percent range, with Racine’s ranging from 42 to 50 percent."

That was Mason Dixon's final poll, conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2002. Actual result? Douglas 44.9%, Racine 42.4%. So much for 95% certainty.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. How Do Credible Pollsters Make Such Errors?

nt

[Awsi Dooger]

14. I've read that polls in less populus states are notiously unreliable

They are lesser in number, not a priority and underfunded. Supposedly the demographic sample is imprecise, and therefore the margin of error is dramatically understated. Pollsters invariably attach the same MOE to polls.

I had a link for the article regarding polls in small populus states, but when I pasted it here and checked the link, the website is no longer there.

[Name removed]

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[nodictators]

11. Russert and Brokaw were all smiles tonight re new poll

Was that the Mason-Dixon poll on NBC Nightly "News" tonight?

Anyhow, Russert had Bush very strong in the battleground states. That is contrary to other polls.

Even more telling is the fact that Bush has now gone to Pennsylvania 40 times. Doesn't seem like he'd have done that if he were doing well there.

Also, Bush hasn't been in Ohio for a while. It isn't because he's got it locked up.

Looks like GO for Kerry-Edwards!

[elperromagico]

17. I heard El Arbusto hasn't gone to Ohio

because his polls numbers drop whenever he goes there. *hehehe*

[Euphen]

13. What were the actual numbers for that poll? n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. I Saw it at

www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com


look in the October archives...

[sonicx]

18. if you look at Google news...

the group of Mason Dixon polls are being picked up by a lot of sites.

Their IA result makes the least sense. Dems crushed GOP in voter registration.