right wing Real Clear Politics: Kerry in a landslide

[montana500]

from dailykos


have decided to go fishing for Bush votes again over at Real Clear Politics (here is a link to the first time). According to their own state-by-state averages plus the Incumbent Rule (86% of undecideds to the challenger in a Presidential Election), here is how the battleground would break according if the election were held today:

Bush Kerry
AZ 51.6 48.4
AR 49.1 48.9
CO 50.6 47.4
FL 48.1 50.4
IA 47.4 51.1
ME 43.1 53.0
MI 45.3 53.2
MN 45.3 52.7
MO 50.8 49.2
NV 52.6 47.4
NH 46.7 52.3
NJ 43.9 55.1
NM 47.0 51.3
NC 51.1 48.9
OH 47.8 52.2
OR 45.5 53.0
PA 46.7 53.3
VA 50.6 49.4
WA 44.7 55.3
WV 49.7 49.3

WI 48.4 49.3This results in Kerry 311, Bush 227, but with Bush holding perilous leads in many states. In fact, if Bush surrenders just 1.2% to Kerry nationally, he would fall behind in AR, MO, NC, VA and WV as well. But remember, don't let their own polls fool you. This race is Bush's to lose.
And for those of you who doubt the incumbent rule, Bush still loses the Electoral College 274-264 according the RCP's current averages even with the undecideds allocated 50-50. Bush would need to win more than 50% of the undecideds than Kerry in order to win the election according to RCP's state averages.

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[Mojambo]

1. This is the real encouraging part

And for those of you who doubt the incumbent rule, Bush still loses the Electoral College 274-264 according the RCP's current averages even with the undecideds allocated 50-50. Bush would need to win more than 50% of the undecideds than Kerry in order to win the election according to RCP's state averages.

[TruthIsAll]

28. ELECTION MODEL: RESULTS FOR 50,55,60,67,75% UNDECIDED TO KERRY

86% is a little optimistic, 67-75% is more like it.

I use 60% as the base case to be conservative. And Kerry expected EV is 314 EV based on the Monte Carlo simulation of 5000 election. trials.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[ramapo]

2. How could there be anything but?

I'm convinced that Kerry will win big. I cannot accept that the American people will reward Bush for the terrible job that he has done.

If I'm wrong and Bush gets in for four more years (note I do not say win), I am going to withdraw from society as I will then officially and finally give up.

[Greyhawk]

5. The presidency isn't the most important thing...

Remember that policy is not set by the President... Our real task should be to take back the Senate and work on retaking the House. That is where judges are approved, laws passed and programs funded/defunded... Presidents have to go move toward how the Congress is run or they get nothing done. A Kerry presidency won't help if we can't win back at least the Senate.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

9. It WILL help because we will remove the PNACer cabal from power,

and stop the slide of the federal gov't into a fascist police state. That is the most important reason to get Bush out. Even if JK can't enact ONE legislative initiative, the power of the shrubco cabal MUST be broken.

[Vincardog]

25. Right on May. The Idiot Bush is only the PNAC Sock puppet he is only

pimple on the ass of the greater threat. The Fascist police state dreamed of in board rooms of paradisaical corporations world wide. We will lance the festering boil that is the Radical Rabid Right Wing.
Then we have to sweep our government clean of all that hold to their evil agenda. :puke:

[montana500]

14. totally disagree

"Remember that policy is not set by the President... Our real task should be to take back the Senate and work on retaking the House. That is where judges are approved, laws passed and programs funded/defunded... Presidents have to go move toward how the Congress is run or they get nothing done. A Kerry presidency won't help if we can't win back at least the Senate."


Most of the damage Bush has done, especially to the environment has been end arounds of congress. We need to stop the bleeding first. Highest priority is president simply due to the supreme court issue.

[fujiyama]

18. It IS the most important thing

but I agree, it's not the only important thing.

Getting back the senate is very important...At the moment it looks like there are a lot of close races. I am a bit worried that in a pres election people will vote straight party in the close senate races in strongly republican states.

[DuaneBidoux]

20. Yes and no....

For domestic policy it would be great to have a Democratic Senate, but Kerry can do a GREAT DEAL alone to get foreign policy back on track and begin rebuilding American respect abroad...and honestly it is this I worry about more than anything else.

[callous taoboy]

26. On that note

My republican brother will not be voting for kay bailey hutchison this time.

[snippy]

10. Rather than withdraw from society if Bush remains in office, I intend to

devote my life during the next four years to developing a more powerful pretzel.

[Aawulf]

3. Are you cherry picking state polls?

Are you cherry picking state polls? They aren't matching up to what I see at RCP or http://www.electoral-vote.com/.

[newyawker99]

7. Hi Aawulf!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Ready4Change]

4. Don't relax. Don't get complacent.

Hopeful signs are just that. They are NOT a won election. They are not an ACCEPTED won election.

To dispell post election appeals, to ward off the temptation of R's to request every recount under the sun, to hold of lawsuits regarding faulty e-voting machines, the results on the morning of Nov 3rd must be overwhelmingly for Kerry.

I DO think the voters are there. I do think the majority of voting districts will count votes fairly. But early signs are that dirty tricks are being played, and played hard, and that any shaky area is vulnerable to being stolen.

I keep saying this: This election is NOT over until Kerry takes residence in the White House. Because that is how long this administration will fight to stay in power. And they will not fight fair. They are, and will, fight in every dirty underhanded manner they can concieve.

Fight. Fight all the way THROUGH the end.

[ramapo]

8. Give money!

No relaxing here...I'm hopeful, somewhat confident and scared-as-hell...

Just donated to the DNC, MoveOn, and RetireTomDelay. Feels great!

[calimary]

15. This post alone is worth nominating the whole thread.

This is UBER-IMPORTANT. No. They will NOT go quietly or give up easily or behave like ladies and gentlemen or be graceful losers. Or let's just say if this IS what they wind up doing, then I'm barbara bush. Senior AND junior. They WILL INDEED fight hard, AND fight dirty. They WILL INDEED look for any loophole or advantage that'll let 'em string this along until they hope we just get disgusted and give up. Having tasted the ultimate power - not only the White House but the Senate AND the House, and lusting for Middle Eastern conquest, with their toes in the water on that score in Iraq for the PNAC, they will not give it up willingly. In fact, they may have to be dragged out of there. Or frog-marched.

Ready4Change is SO correct. And BRAVO for a MOST excellent post!!! It's a MUST-READ for everybody here. CONSTANT VIGILANCE!!! This is NOT won yet.

[Ready4Change]

27. Thanks.

It's nice to be noticed.

I feel strongly about keeping my guard up because I recall, back in 2000, how sure I felt that Gore was going to win. And he did, but by a far narrower margin than I expected. And of course we all know what happened THEN.

[GainesT1958]

6. I am now convinced...

We have a "real clear" shot to win here (N.C.). That gives Kerry 15 more Electoral Votes, and helps the rest of our non-gubernatorial ticket (Gov. Mike Easley is going to beat his Repub challenger, Patrick Ballentine, by at least 10-12 points), including Erskine Bowles.:bounce:

Either the number 301 or the number 311 kept popping up in my mind the last few days. I get this feeling Kerry's EV total will be one of those numbers, or somewhere in between them. And his popular % will be between 53% and 56% (the latter being the same as Poppy's total against Dukakis in '88; how fitting!):eyes:

In addition, I think we'll get the Senate back, and come tantalizingly close in the House--close enough that some timely defections may put us over after the election.

:kick:

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Laelth]

12. RealClearPolitics

That's a funny site, now that you mention it. Mostly rationalist, pro-business, greed Republicans who tolerate a lot of freeper noise. I love quick access to all the polls, but they recently turned off the "anonymous post" function on their blog. Wonder what that was about?

Anybody have some insight to share?

:shrug:

-Laelth

[Awsi Dooger]

13. Can I bet under 86% of the undecideds break for Kerry?

For let's see, the net value of this planet? I'll even give 2/1 odds and throw in Pluto.

Amazing the numbers that are tossed around here. And yeah, I saw the evaluation on MyDD.com. He needs to try again.

[montana500]

17. read the whole report

he used the 86% and the 50/50 ratio and still came up with a Kerry victory.

[Awsi Dooger]

21. My beef is with the 86% and the reasoning behind it

I understand he forecasts Kerry to win minus any pickup among undecideds. That is up in the air right now. At 50/50 among undecideds, I would lean slightly to Bush.

Chris Bowers of MyDD.com came up with that 86%. Bowers is very good, but I completely disagree with the 86% figure. He only looked at presidential races since '76. Only 5 of those 8 races featured an incumbent, and '76 was a pseudo-incumbent in Gerald Ford. It is a ridiculously small sample to evaluate with certainty.

Also, the presidential race is the Super Bowl for pollsters. They treat it much differently than other polls. Undecideds are assigned late in the race, based on lean or tendencies. Bowers did not seem to take that into account, based on his statement that only 2.4% are undecided in a presidential race. I can only assume he looked at the FINAL polls, when undecideds have already been assigned by pollsters.

There is ZERO chance 86% of the actual undecideds break toward the challenger, and should be blindly assigned as such nearly two weeks out. Plus, undecideds break differently according to the partisan tendencies of the state. The poster from DailyKos has routinely assigned 86% undecideds to Kerry in every critical state to come up with those percentages. North Carolina is not equivalent to New Jersey, among undecideds or otherwise.

[louis c]

16. Don't you think 86% of undecideds for Kerry

is rather high.

I think 65%-75% Kerry to 25%-35% Bush is much more realistic.

Usually it is 2-1 or 3-1 for the challenger.

[atre]

19. 86% is the average of undecideds that break to the challenger

on Election Day. It may not be appropriate to use it at this point, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with the number itself.

[Auntie Bush]

22. WOW!!!!!! I'm going to sleep better tonight!

Best news I've heard all day! Sure beats listing to slanted cable news and their BS.

[Guaranteed]

23. Kick nt

[spooky3]

24. love those VA results--GOTV could push it over the top

[bush equals idiot]

29. The president can go

right over the heads of Congress and take his case directly to the people on a nationwide address.

That's what a strong president does.