Please Use Common Sense in Reading Polls.

[louis c]

Fox news and Gallup don't count, they're in the bag, so discount them, regardless of their numbers, good or bad.

Now, all the rest have the race between 1 and 3 points, either way.

If the polling data has this race even, nationally, that's OK. That's what their honest opinion is, according to the most recent data.

Every election day advantage goes to Kerry, by a lot.

1. New registrations are breaking heavily to Kerry. Zogby has it 53%-39% in this group. Tim Russert on NBC just said that Kerry's advantage is "By all accounts, Huge" among these voters. Repukes say they won't come out. Let's use our common sense, if they registered in this election, they will come out, or we will get them out. I think this margin is at least 60%-40% Kerry and will have the greatest impact in "swing" states.

2. Undecideds always break to the challenger. Sometimes as high as 3-1. Let's just say that this group goes 2-1 for Kerry, it will be huge. All the polling data that I have seen, including Zogby, Rasmussen and Pew show the signs of Kerry winning this group are larger than the historical norm. The right track, wrong track has Bush at -15% (Rasmussen), his approval rating among undecideds is dismal (44% approval among all voters in Pew), and "want some one new" is 4-1 over "deserves to be re-elected" according to Zogby.

3. Turnout of Kerry voters. Our turnout will be phenomenal. Nothing, not even fear, trumps anger for energizing a base. I have never seen such anger in those who are against Bush before in any election, for any office, at any time. No one is that angry with Kerry. The War, the Economy, the Environment, the Flu Shots, and his bull shit have made it so that no one who dislikes (more like hates) Bush will stay home. If the turnout is around 110 million votes, we should win a close one. If, as I believe, we exceed 118 million we will win easy, if it goes to 122 million votes, Kerry will win in an Electoral Vote landslide. Get out the vote, it makes all the difference.

Well, that's my opinion. In closing, let me sum up. The polls (other than Gallup and Fox) are good news, as long as Kerry is close. Watch the trend, not the box score. And remember, all the closing advantages belong to us.

[DemocracyInaction]

1. I started this day all sunshine and got very depressed when came

back here tonight. The news was quite good all day. Then it's like the bottom dropped out tonight. I'm looking for trends. But when something like that Post tracking poll comes out and jumps 5-6 points overnight for Bush, I just shake my head. My deep concern isn't really the polls themselves. It's the damn propaganda value of them. That's why these whores who are sitting on a pile of even-steven polls and keep spewing Gallup are, in essence, running free Bush ads. I've heard Dems make comments which I've had to correct because they thought it was basically all over for Kerry because of this idiot Gallup (since it's a very recognizable name). We cannot let these masters of stats and spin depress our turnout.

[lancdem]

3. Don't worry about the Post tracking poll

I have no idea what their internals are, but the other day they said Bush's approval rating was 54 percent, and that's not even close to being right. To be honest, all that matters is what a tracking poll shows right before the election, not 12 days before.

[wildeyed]

2. hmmmm......

"Let's use our common sense, if they registered in this election, they will come out, or we will get them out."

I have been doing allot of voter registration this cycle. Lots of people will fill out the form just to get you off their back, but getting them to the polls can be a whole lot of work. The pubs are good at turnout. Plus the pubbie base tends to do what they are told, whereas dems are more rebellious. Damn rebellious dems!

"I have never seen such anger in those who are against Bush before in any election, for any office, at any time."

So true. The pugs in my town tried to pull a dirty trick to disenfranchise black voters. There was such overwhelming outrage that they rescinded AND a few of them even apologized. The outcry had allot to do with rage over the stolen election in FL, IMO. In another year, with higher voter apathy, they might have gotten away with it.

[louis c]

4. Still

This election has more exposure than any in memory.

New regs will vote, just to participate in such an exciting event, and will vote for change because that is more of an impact than status quo.

[wildeyed]

6. I am hoping and praying that is truth.

And I am working hard to get the souls to the polls.

[Shoeempress]

5. Seven sites have it a dead heat according to Editor & Publisher,

Here's the link:

http://www.mediainfo.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000681355

In addition, in '92 when George the 1st was running for re-election, there was this media hype about how Clinton was going down and all the repukes were yucking it up like now. The days following the election, everyone would kinda dance around the result until you'd say, well I voted for Clinton and I hated George. Everyone would inevitably say, Me too, and sound shocked like they thought they were the only one. Relax, Americans are not idiots.