Lets talk upsets...

[FrankenforMN]

Which state do you think Kerry has the BEST chance of stealing that most people are barely even talking about? I am not talking about toss-up states. I mean upsets.

Some examples: Virginia, Colorado, Arkansas, North Carolina, Arizona (depends on who you talk to), Tennessee...I am sure I forgot a bunch.

My pick: Arkansas, if Bill Clinton pays them a visit and rallies the base. However, I could see Kerry winning all of these states if we get the vote out.

[UrbScotty]

1. <sniff> I smell something out of Virginia.

I'd put the Old Dominion on the map if I were you.

[FrankenforMN]

3. Thanks. I knew I would forget some.

[Norbert]

15. Virginia for me too.

Something about that patch of blue in the Northeast getting bigger and bigger and bigger...

I wouldn't mind Colorado too just to break up that expanse of red in the west.

[salinen]

2. Yep

Boston really cleaned New Yauks clock.

[xray s]

4. Louisiana

The Catholics come home....

[Jacobin]

18. I wish, but I'm in Louisiana, and it ain't looking too good

I don't think Smirk will win by a giant margin, but he'll take it easily, unfortunately.

Bible belters in the north

[liberalpragmatist]

5. Virginia

It's totally off the radar. But EVERY poll but one (from a month ago) ALL year has had Bush stuck at 50 or 49. The margin has stayed remarkably consistent over the course of the entire year. In fact, it's been more consistently close than 2nd tier tossups like Missouri, or even Nevada and Colorado.

Check out this graph:



Now look at Colorado:



And Nevada:



And Missouri (considered out-of-play anyway):

[FrankenforMN]

7. That site predicts a 301-237 Kerry victory.

Although I'm not sure about the methodology, and the polls used.

[liberalpragmatist]

8. It's good for trends

The current map is just the latest poll. I wish he would exclude extreme outliers and partisan polls either D or R because they skew things. But on the whole I think it's useful to showing which states are in play and what the general trends are.

His Predicted map is the latest poll, with undecideds distributed 2/3 to Kerry and 1/3 to Bush. That accounts for 99% in some states and 98% in some, b/c they allocate 1% collectively to all 3rd party candidates and 1% to Nader in states where he's on the ballot.

[Geek_Girl]

6. Arkansas and Tennessee

I went to a fall craft festival in a rural part of Tennessee this weekend. I saw 1 Bush Cheney sign on the country back roads and about 8 Kerry Edward’s signs. At the art festival I saw no pro-bush art work but I did find a nice little Kerry-Edward's wind chime.

I'm seeing more and more Kerry Edward’s signs and bumper stickers everyday. Last year it seemed everyone I worked with voted with Bush I think I know a total of 7 people who may vote for Bush this election. At work people who have been long time friends aren't even speaking to each other because of politics and strong opposing opinions.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. Arkansas is a good pick

It was only about 5-6 points more GOP than the national average in both '88 and '00, without Clinton on the ballot. Clinton won Arkansas big twice, and Arkansas ousted a GOP incumbent senator in 2002, even thought it was generally a Republican night elsewhere.

I'll throw in Arizona and Louisiana as other upset possibilities for Kerry.

And I continue to believe Bush has a much better chance of stealing Oregon than DUers estimate.

[FrankenforMN]

10. I worry about Minnesota turning red as well

but Kerry was in Minneapolis today. Hopefully that went well.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. My danger list for 2004: Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon, Wisconsin

That's been my evaluation since 2001, after looking at numbers since the '80s. Those states are drifting slowly away from us.

The only one that is generally considered safe by DUers for 2004 is Oregon. I disagree.

[liberalpragmatist]

14. Minnesota will go to Kerry

Bush has barely broken 45%. I expect a pretty comfortable Kerry win there.

Wisconsin and Iowa on the other hand, we need to be worried and prepared to accept a loss.

[soggy]

11. it's arkansas baby...

and west virginia's gonna be real close, too...

[FrankenforMN]

12. I consider WV a toss-up...

Am I wrong?

[Laelth]

16. At this stage ...

with Kerry trending up in nearly every poll, and with no reason to expect that this trend will change ... looks like Kerry wins all the states on the west bank of the Mississippi just like Clinton did in both 1992 and 1996 (Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana--admittedly, the Miss. runs through MN and LA, but you get the drift).

That's what I say when I'm hopeful, anyway.

:smoke:

-Laelth

[joanne]

17. Hey welcome to DU Franken!

:hi:

[FrankenforMN]

19. Is Kerry going down the Miss. River before the election like Gore did?