SUSA - Mich K 51% B 44% - CO K 45% B 52% - IA K 45% B 51%

[unfrigginreal]

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

Edited to correct Iowa results.

[zach]

1. Unfortunately

Their front page is wrong for the state of Iowa. If you click on the .pdf file it's reversed, with Shrubya 51% and Kerry 45%.

[lancdem]

6. You're right

Oh well.

[DemocracyInaction]

7. Zach - Wasn't able to click on because all sorts of dumb things happen

when I do----could you tell me since you clicked on the Iowa results how we know whether the front cover stats or the ones you refer to are correct?? Some other polls over the last few days seem to indicate Kerry up to 5 points or so in Iowa. Could you elaborate on what you saw????

[louis c]

9. Iowa has Kerry ahead. You still have it wrong.

It's Kerry 51%-45% in Iowa.

Check your link.

[lancdem]

15. But the link says Bush is up 51-45

the details are on the Iowa page.

[louis c]

24. Show me what link you're talking about

Where's the link.

the one on the original thread has Kerry 51%-45%. Which one are you talking about. please link.

[lancdem]

26. I can't provide a link because it's a pdf file

but if you go down the page linked by the poster, when you come to the Iowa results you click on the word Iowa and another file comes up.

[unfrigginreal]

19. He's right

The partisan breakdown of the Iowa LV model of 690 is:
Rep 231
Dem 215
Ind 236
NS 8

I don't know how that squares with historical partisan voting breakdowns. Anyway, here's a link to the PDF file

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/IA041021president.pdf

[Doosh]

39. the rethugs have really targeted Iowa this year

Bush has made a ton of visits there, Kerry has sort of written it off since the caucuses.

Fact is, it won't mean a damn thing if we win Florida or Ohio, plus it already looks like we're picking up the 4ev in NH that we left on the table for Bush/Nader to steal in 2000.

[MidwestTransplant]

2. Don't like those Senate polls

How could CO elect Coors over Salazar. I am shocked. Also, Colburn is a freaking nut.

[montana500]

3. beautiful

nm

[lancdem]

4. Great to see Kerry with leads outside the MOE

in Michigan, Iowa and Maine. So much for those shitty Mason-Dixon polls.

As for Colorado, Kerry is campaigning there Saturday with Ken Salazar, so I think they feel they have an outside shot there, at least.

[montana500]

5. mason dixon are outliers...

The Michigan, Maine Iowa leads are the trend.

[pabloseb]

8. OMG... how can IA be this bad???

Mason-Dixon also has the chimp up by 6, which means the chimp up by maybe 1 or 2. But surveyusa is a more serious polling firm.
If Kerry loses IA but wins OH, he'll also have to keep WI. Or losing WI, keep NM and take NH. So chances are still good, even losing FL, but at any rate I expected Kerry to win IA as well...

[tedoll78]

10. Check it again..

Kerry's up 6 in IA! Woo-hoo!

[DaveinMD]

11. Don't trust this outfit

no matter what the poll says. Automated polling is not a reliable way to get data.

[pabloseb]

21. We can't dismiss every poll we don't like

survey usa has been obtaining consistent results at other states. May be their methodology is not perfect, but at least I don't think they're biased like gallup, strategic vision or mason-dixon.

[DaveinMD]

31. notice what I said

I don't trust their positive results either. I am a political consultant and I wouldn't hire any firm that to do poll that uses automated calls.

[pabloseb]

20. Actually, the front page is wrong... the chimp is up 6

Look inside the poll :(

[tedoll78]

30. Damn.

thanks for the heads-up.. :(

[louis c]

13. Check the God Damn site.

Kerry is ahead. Look at the site.

Ia is Iowa. Why does everyone read this wrong?

[lancdem]

17. But if you click on Iowa where the poll is

another file comes up with details explaining the internals, and Bush is ahead, not Kerry.

[maryallen]

34. Not that bad. Bigger picture: Re: Iowa (from Slate)

BUSH KERRY

47.9 51.1 0.4 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O)
47 47 4 10/10-12 American Research Group
49 46 1 10/9-11 Strategic Vision (R)
47 45 1 10/8-11 Chicago Tribune
46 50 N/A 9/27-10/10 Rasmussen (A)
48 47 N/A 10/4-6 SurveyUSA (A)
44.5 51.1 0.2 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O)

[DemocracyInaction]

12. Will somebody straighten out this Iowa thing?? 2 different responses

here. Some say it was a mistake on their front page and others say it's correct at Kerry ahead at 51%. Pleeeeeeeeeeease ....it's driving me nuts. Which is it?????

[mvd]

14. PDF does have Bush ahead

Just one poll, though.

[louis c]

16. Check the Site

[DemocracyInaction]

18. I said that I tried. I see the front page. When I try to click on Iowa

I just get a bunch of crap which is usual for my computer and therefore I wanted to know how people know if the front page or the contents are the correct number??

[pabloseb]

23. The chimp is ahead

It says so explicitely inside... * pulls ahead or something like that. Also, the internals favor the chimp. For example, according to this poll he has 25% of the black vote.

[DemocracyInaction]

25. I can't believe Chimp has 25% of any Black vote anywhere

Something is a bit odd about this.

[lancdem]

28. I'll say

[mvd]

32. Black vote seems high for * in CO, too

Hmmm....

[fujiyama]

22. According to the poll

Bush is ahead. The site's summary results have it wrong.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/IA041021president.pdf

[louis c]

27. Well, I guess you're right

I can't argue with evidence like that.

Still seems screwy to me, though.

[fujiyama]

33. I'm not happy either

and if there was no evidence of the pdf, we never really would have known.

In a way, I'd rather not have known...I'd say I'm wasting too much Goddamned time on these polls.

I also doubt that Bush is ahead by that much, if he's ahead at all. WI and IA will be close no matter what...and so will MN, but to a lesser extent.

[MattNC]

29. Survey USA =

zzz's

[DemocracyInaction]

35. Are Mason-Dixon, Knight-Rider and SUSA the same damn poll???

Seriously. We are having, I think, the same stats for places like Iowa. I know one of the polls has another name and think M-D is also Knight Rider. I'd like to get this straight because it's looking on this board all evening like we have 3 seperate polls all starting to give Bush some big gains and making some states razor close. Please clarify this. Are we dealing with 3 polls, 2 polls and just one big poll with 3 different names!!!!!

[papau]

36. 2

SUSA and M-D

[DaveinMD]

37. Mason Dixon

trends right and SUSA uses automated polling, which is a very questionable method.

[Rambis]

38. I know Iowa, Iowa is a friend of mine, these people do not know iowa

NO WAY * WINS IOWA! This isn't a plea for calm, it isn't wishful thinking, it is a fact. It is a 100% metaphysical certitude Kerry wins Iowa.

[tedoll78]

40. I thought so as well.

Didn't Iowa Dems register 50000 new voters while Iowa GOPers registered only around 9000? That would tell me that we have a ground game advantage..

[Rambis]

41. 199,973 absantee ballots turned in 70% DEMOCRAT so far

I can't find the link but that is what I am hearing from Dem head quarters as well. 326,000 requested- revised as of Monday

[tedoll78]

42. WOW.

That makes me feel really, really good about things in IA. Thanks.. I'll sleep a bit better tonight. :hi:

[DemocracyInaction]

43. Amen---'cause the Iowa thing was getting my dander up and so

is some of the other crap. We've had recent polls that started to show Kerry leading nicely in the Gore states and then along comes these idiots and their wacko poll.

[tedoll78]

44. You're right.

Just a few hours ago, the tone was completely different. We had gotten four polls showing Kerry up in Ohio, a few showing him up in IA/NH/MN/WI/OR/MI/PA.. and then just a small number tonight get all of the focus and put a chill in the air here at DU.

We have a great GOTV op in each swing state. We've out-registered the GOP by wide margins where it really counts. The undecideds will swing our way. And then a few right-wing polls come out? It won't stop me from feeling pretty good about things. That's where I was this morning mentally on this - "pretty good." And that's where I'll be when I wake up. The bottom line? The math is in our favor.

[Rambis]

45. 30,000 in MN tonight

The Shrub max crowd there was 17,500.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

46. Forget polls. Survey USA has been skewed in the past. GOtV.

Forget polls. Survey USA has been skewed in the past. GOtV.