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We are less than 270 hours away from the beginning of midnight voting in Dixville Notch, NH. I'm attaching special significance onto New Hampshire's voting this year.
First, a recap of the past: --> Al Gore got 265,853 votes there in 2000.. 47% --> George W Bush got 273,135 votes in 2000.. 48% --> Ralph Nader got 22,156 votes in 2000.. 4%
Nader will be on the ballot again, but it is widely suspected that he won't be nearly as strong as he was in 2000. Recent polls for New Hampshire's 4EVs are as follows: 1) Rasumssen (10/18) --> Bush 47, Kerry 49, Nader - 2) ARG (10/16-18) --> Bush 47, Kerry 46, Nader 1 3) Mason-Dixon (10/15-18) --> Bush 48, Kerry 45, Nader 1 4) Suffolk U. (10/14-17) --> Bush 41, Kerry 46, Nader 1 5) Research 2000 (10/14) --> Bush 45, Kerry 49, Nader 2
If you were to average these five polls together, Kerry has a lead of about 1.4%. Bush's percentage in these polls averages 45.6%. (And note also how Bush only gets over 47% in the {*ahem*} Mason-Dixon poll..)
I may be wrong in putting so much meaning and weight into the the small state. But I think that it has some elements reflective of the campaign themes nationwide. It's a state that leans conservative (like other swing states do), and it's a state narrowly won by Bush in 2000. It may function as a microcosm, if you will. A friend asked me to come-up with an early indication of how the night might go, so I looked at early states and this one stuck-out at me. New Hampshire's polls close early in the evening (~7PM, EST), and the votes are counted quickly due to the state's relatively small size.
Given all of this, I am going to now put-out a theory: New Hampshire will set the tone for Election Night.
- If Kerry wins convincingly, with undecideds and new voters giving him a large margin (>5%), this points to a great night ahead. - If Kerry wins barely, it's really inconclusive. :shrug: - And if Kerry loses New Hampshire, it might be time to break-out the Maalox.
That's my theory. Or superstition, depending on your own thoughts on this. I'm looking for something, anything early in the evening to point to as a trend.. a sign.. and this is the best that I can come-up with. Thoughts?
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