Could Bush's ads account for the sudden swing in polls?

[annerevere]

I have not seen any of the Bush ads, but I know he is painting Kerry as a crazy leftie and that the ads are running constantly in the battleground states.

What do you think? How effective are the ads? Could they account for the shift?

[Texas_Dem]

1. There is no shift. Polls are flaky, some more flaky than others.

Now back to work for the campaign with you.

[papau]

2. What sudden swing?

:-)

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

3. Well,

one of the guys who works for our company came in today and said that BOTH Bush and Kerry were acting crazy, laying charges against each other. I don't think he believes any of it. But I know he's voting for Kerry- he wants a president that is smarter than he is!

[Randi_Listener]

4. What shift?

What the fuck are you watching?

[annerevere]

9. FOUR polls show Bush improvement today

The Mason Dixon poll, the Zogby poll, the Rasmussen poll, and most notably the ABC/Washington post poll. The ABC poll shows a Bush gain of 3 points in one day and it is a three day tracking poll, so yesterday was HUGE for Bush. Bush leads by 6 in that poll.

[lancdem]

15. Tracking polls go up and down

I wouldn't be surprised if Kerry does better in them tomorrow because Monday, which I think was a good Bush day, will drop out.

[pabloseb]

20. Of those polls...

Mason-Dixon = the chimp.
Zogby = just one point shift, entirely negligible.
Rasmussen = oscillates all the time between tie and * 3pts up. But the chimp always < 49%.
WA Post = this is the only one that would be of some concern.

But just one poll is not reason to panic. There are other polls (AP has Kerry +3, Marist has a tie). And close national polls have Kerry way up at battlegrounds.

So although I don't dismiss all bad polls and hand-pick the good ones, I really don't see a trend toward */

[high density]

5. It's the same old freaking thing that they've said a thousand times before

"Weak on defense"
"He spends a lot"
"He's going to raise your taxes"
"His healthcare plan takes choices away from you"

I don't understand how it could have an effect on anybody at this point in the game.

[lancdem]

6. What shift?

You mean those questionable Mason-Dixon polls? I'll wait until I see more proof than that before saying there's a shift.

[annerevere]

10. See my post above - 4 polls not one show a Bush move

[Zynx]

7. Shift? WTF?

[annerevere]

12. See my post above

[MADem]

8. The ads ARE having an impact

...but not the ones you think. The ones with all of the fuzzy camera angles, the murky and muddled messages, the angry, desperate shouting that is supposed to display resolve, are the ones that are tanking....how can we phrase it? BIG TIME.

They all end with the following sentence: "Ah'm George Buuush, an' ah upprove this messich."

[TruthIsAll]

25. Here's my messich. You nailed it, buddy.

Every time I hear that whining Chimps voice, I want to puke.

Sounds just like the flying monkeys in the Miami Zoo.

[missouri dem]

11. Thje only sudden shift that I have seen

is toward Kerry. Some people say that for w to have a chance he needs to be up 8-9 % because the undecideds will break for Kerry and all of the new registrations and the fact that Kerry voters are much more likely to be cell phone users. w is toast.

[Pump Man]

31. Ya you right but you forgot 200million to get out vote money

That is Money set aside for Nov. 2

[missouri dem]

39. shhhhhhh...... that is top secret and not to be shared with freepers

as we sack up the senate and the house and set our sights on indictments of the primary criminals.

[troublemaker]

13. one if by land, two if you're a troll

[Bleacher Creature]

14. You may mean well, but that was a flameworthy statement.

The only shift is a shift in the methodology in the polls.

[CMO]

17. The only poll that is worth anything

is Zogby. The others are worthless crap.

I live in MO and Bush decided to pull all of his ads here...so I haven't seen any. He thinks he has Missouri in the bag. I think he has another thing coming! He's a crack head!

[MADem]

41. The only POLL THAT REALLY COUNTS

Is the one they are taking on 2 NOVEMBER. But Zogby is probably closer than some of the worthless shit that I have seen slapped up on this board in very recent days, by people who have been here for less time than I have been here (and I am a recent arrival in this incarnation, I was here a few years back, but I was not much of a poster back then).

I'm usually a fairly patient person, but I smell a little desperation up in here....you'd think some of these closeted chimpsters would be spending their time working for their candidate.

OH, BUT WAIT!!!!!!!!

THEY ARE!!!!!!!

Rove said, standing before the GOP National Meeting less than a year ago, that his strategy is to SUPPRESS THE VOTE.

That is what these helpful visitors are trying to do with all this doom and gloom poll posting.

OH NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! The Bumfuck and Twaddle poll has BUSH LEADING by one seventh of one percent! DAMN, DAMN, DAMN--there's NO HOPE, I guess I'll just stay home, not vote, and cry into my pillow!!!

Our mission--slap this shit down every time we see it.

Of course, when you are winning, it is easier to be generous and make allowances for morons...but I'm not that kind.

[Demfromct]

22. Stop killing the messenger

The 4 polls do show a slight trend towards Bush. But I dont think it will stand.

I trust Zogby, Wash Post, Pew and Harris. Rasmussen is shaky. I just dont' trust them much. They are used to polling investors.

Independent polls I don't trust are mason-dixon and the university polls. I just look at what they have said in the last month and it is incongrous with other polls. Mason Dixon says Oregon a tie? Michigan a tie?

I dont' think so.

Gallup: There performance has been embarassing. if they are way off this time around we should call them on it.

[AntiCoup2K4]

24. Freepers send backup now?

Who knew?

[tishaLA]

35. Gracias for the correct response

I'm doing beaucoup thread hiding tonight so I don't have to see them doing the devil's work.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. ROTFLMFAO

nt

[goodwalt]

16. Of course it is *'s new

Ad. I hear he hugs a little girl in it. Can't you see how that could turn this around for him? If you wan't to feel better, go to electoral-vote.com. Click on some of the battle ground states and look at the listing for the poll cited. THEN, start scrolling back through previous polls. There is an obvious pattern of Mason-Dixon, Strategic Vision, and a coulple others reporting ludicrous 10 point shifts- and oddly enough, all of their erratic data favors chimpy. Swear to God, if you try this experiment, you will see that these guys aren't polling, they are shilling.

[GreenPartyVoter]

18. Dubya has called me twice and mailed me once today to

tell me that Kerry is a tax and spend librul. :eyes:

[tedoll78]

19. If anything, we've seen Ohio shift.

Gallup (for what it's worth..) has Kerry up 6 among RV.
Three other polls this week have shown Kerry marginally ahead.
Only one poll this week has shown Bush barely ahead.

Considering that Bush averages around 47% in these polls, he's in deep sh!t in Ohio. Add new voters and undecideds tilting to the challenger, and that's 20 brand spankin' new electoral votes in our column.

If Kerry wins the Gore states, New Hampshire, and Ohio.. he can even afford to lose one of the upper midwest states (IA/WI/MN).

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

21. I don't think the ads matter any more.

People in battle ground states have been seeing political ads for months now, practically this whole year. I think most people are ignoring them now.

[DemocracyInaction]

23. We've been getting some absolutely terrific Kerry ads and Bush's

are basically stale. That's why a few of these polls tonight just seem insane. It's like a alternate universe going on--i.e., great Kerry ads and these couple stupid polls show him slipping. This stuff is becoming nothing but propaganda crap I swear.

[59millionmorons]

26. You mean like the new AP poll that has Kerry up by 3?

Or the Marist,NBC,CBS,Zogby,Pew polls that have it tied. Some people dont think before they post.

[gasperc]

27. Well Kerry is up 6pts in Ohio today

so they are doing wonders for Kerry in Ohio

[Warren DeMontague]

28. No, I'm certain it was Kerry calling that Cheney kid "Lebanese"

that accounts for this MASSIVE SWING IN THE POLLS TOWARDS BUSH!

:eyes:

There is no swing. Kerry is kicking ass. The media is getting nervous, that's all.

[pinkpops]

33. frisk her!

[life_long_dem]

34. Lebanese ? I could have sworn he said

labium.

[Warren DeMontague]

40. He called her a "Laundromat"

He is NOT A GOOD MAN.

[emulatorloo]

42. Given Dick and Lynne's hysteria, I thought Kerry called her a "Liberal"

EOM

[Teaser]

29. Hello McFly?

What sudden swing?
one batch of polls from Mason Dixon and you're in a tizzy?
The contradict polls that are no older than a week. Nothing swings the electorate in a week. Hear that? Nothing.

[bushwakker]

30. could "annerevere's" sudden appearance at du

be a sign of the increasing desperation of the greedy bigots that form the gop base? just askin'.

[Spiffarino]

32. bw, read anne's other posts

...before jumping to conclusions. I did.

[annerevere]

37. Oh, please

I'm an infiltrator? Now, who's paranoid?

Come on bushwakker, get a grip.

By my account, Kerry pollwise did not have a good day. At least the polls show that. Bad news, yes. Temporary, hopefully.

But the day that posting news (however bad) gets you labeled a bigot, well that's the day DU isn't worth a darn.

[JohnnyCougar]

43. It just looks bad because DUers freak out over every bad poll

no matter how reliable the pollng organization is. If Karl Rove himself did a poll that showed Bush up by 15 points, people would believe it and go around here like chickens with their heads cut off.

Mason-Dixon is shit as far as reliability and validity goes.

Strategic Vision is a Republican fundraiser poll to make it look like the Bush campaign is more compitent, and to solicit donations.

Survey USA is not biased in one direction or another, but they are sporradic. One of their polls showed Kerry up by only 3 in California this year...yeah right.

Rasmussen is consistent, but it is consitently biased towards Bush. Add 5 Kerry points to every Rassmussen polls. History has confirmed this.

Zogby should be the most accurate this election. It is consistent and accurate.

All other TV sponsored polls are crap crap crap. I wouldn't give any of them credit. As long as Bush isn't leading by 4, we will win because undecides go our way, and GOTV this year will be tremendous.

[ruggerson]

36. What shift?