Zogby - the most trusted name in polls: THE RACE IS A DEAD HEAT.

[mzmolly]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=899

President Bush and Democratic rival Senator John Kerry are locked in a statistical dead-heat with Bush ahead of Kerry (46%-45%), according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The poll results are reminiscent of the presidential race in 2000 during this period. The telephone poll of 1212 likely voters was conducted from Monday through Wednesday (October 18-20, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Zogby is the poll to watch when considering national polling results.

[dave502d]

1. The only one that right.

[Bleacher Creature]

2. Again, the key number is

FORTY-SIX PERCENT

Forget about Kerry's 45%. Incumbents who poll less than 50% and whose approval ratings are less than 50% should start thinking about updating their resume.

[mzmolly]

4. The approval ratings vary by poll as well. Scarborough quoted his

favorable ratings at 56% (I believe it was an ABC poll?) :eyes:

[Bleacher Creature]

9. Pew has it at 44%

So does CBS News/New York Times.

My guess is that the 56% number was a poll conducted among within the Scarborough family.


On edit: AP has it at 47% and even Fox has it at 49%

[rfranklin]

3. Telephone poll! Not very accurate...

I've been calling in New jersey for the Dem HQ and you can reach almost no one by telephone because of caller ID and people being burnt out from telemarketing. I don't know what to think except there is no way Bush will pull more votes than he did in 2000.

[DemocracyInaction]

5. Something to post here 'cause I think it's important

(and I've stuck it into poll discussions several times this week). Joe Klein in an op ed piece in Time magazine said that pollsters have told him privately that 90% of the people who they finally do get to answer the phone, refuse to talk to them. That said, I do agree that Zogby and a couple others seem to very much be showing the 'trend' right on target AND the 'trend' is that everything is stuck in a dead heat. These other idiot polls are trying to create a trend that just isn't there. But keep in mind with all of them that it has to do some kind of messing with stats when pollsters are having this kind of trouble getting people to talk to them.

[mzmolly]

6. Is the people refusing to talk thing new?

:shrug:

If so that might make for an interesting election? I tend to look at trends and the trend as far as I can tell is that this race is tight, and will remain so. However, the public is fickle these days and one never knows what the hell will happen.

I'm stunned it's even close with the massive failure * has been?

Some of the nighties are gloating that Kerry's doomed already, so I felt I should post a reasonable assessment of the situation to quell our fears.

[robbedvoter]

7. The most trusted what again? Just cus he propped your guy in the

primaries....
I believe Kerry is WAAAAY ahead and Zogby is a whore lile them all.

[mzmolly]

8. What the heck are you talking about?

Zogby predicted a Kerry win in the primaries. Guess you didn't follow him long enough to know that. He showed Kerry gaining ground and Dean losing ground. He was pretty accurate actually.

HOWEVER, Get the F over the primaries, I have. *sheesh* I'm not posting a doom and gloom thread here. I am countering the BS that Bush is ahead in the polls ok?

The reason I say Zogby is accurate is because he has a history of predicting the outcome of Presidential elections mmmk? He was dead on in 2000. He also accurately predicted the outcome of the 1996 election.

[PATRICK]

10. Compared to this stage at in 2000

given the particular race today I am guessing 53-47 is in the ballpark for a Kerry win. So called battleground states will still be ugly. Bush's slide will be steady or precipitous from now on.

Do we have a pool going or that too much immature hubris at this point?