Secret Kerry Weapon is Cell Phone-Only Users

[George 2]

Election Rides on the 917 Vote

The newspaper and television polls aren't worth glancing at. They are taken of people who have land lines, as your house phone is known. Many millions have cell phones and land lines both, and can be reached. But there are about 40 million between 18 and 29 who only use cell phones. They are heavily Democratic. The usual view is that they vote sparingly. This time, with the word "draft" in the air the young breathe, and with a general and intense dislike of Bush, the number should be higher than usual. Even if it is disappointing, the numbers are so huge to begin with that Kerry will be your president on a 917 vote.

I was wondering what these cell phone-only stats were. I hope it's true!

[GreenPoet64]

1. Don't forget the "no phone" households too . . .

it used to be the no phone households were insignificant in terms of polling. But combine these with cell phone-only users and I think you have significant number of voters who have not been included in polling results.:toast:

[jean]

2. maybe the caller ID households will play a part too

[endnote]

3. Don't forget the households that hang up to pollsters...

[LVdem]

4. What's the likelyhood

of a no-phone household actually voting?

[Randi_Listener]

6. Very high

Any other questions?

[GreenPoet64]

7. People without phones include college students . . .

Also there are marginally poor families who must do without a phone, can't afford computers or internet, but own a television. (Often this is the case).

I remember reading that a large number of Native Americans living on reservations do not own phones. (These votes could have a significant influence in some swing states).

[LVdem]

13. Great points, thanks for the insight

[tinrobot]

5. What about internet telephones?

Like people who use Vonage. It's a small segment, but growing. Do those people get counted?

[AntiCoup2K4]

15. Doubtful. Vonage is a fairly new invention.

way too small of a market for phone lists, just like the cell-only's. (of which I am one)

[DemFromMem]

8. One way to measure this group

See how the unweighted numbers look in the phone polls to the numbers in the online polls. Look at the proportion of respondents in different age categories and see if there is a difference. Then adjust your numbers accordingly.

[neomonkey]

9. Based on my own very personal observations,

I know 2 people who subsist entirely on cell phones: they both don't give a shit about politics and aren't voting.

[humanbeing]

10. the cell phone thing has been mentioned countless times, but...

can anyone prove to me statistically that there are factors which make it impossible for pollers to predict the voting inclinations of cell-phone only individuals?

I see really no reason why they can't call up the, let's say, 60% of 18-24 year olds that DO have land lines and, from that, extrapolate the voting patterns of the entire 18-24 cohort. Not having a landline doesn't make you any more liberal than someone who does, in that age group.

[pabloseb]

11. humanbeing is right, but...

...some polls may be undersampling young voters. They either assume that the 18-35 turnout will be similar to the previous elections (WRONG since turnout will be heavier), or they estimate number of young voters based on the sample they used (WRONG because ignores cell-phone users). So it's not that cell-phone users are more liberal than landline users, but that young voters are not accurately represented in the polls.

[humanbeing]

12. so...

what are most of the polls using for their assumptions about the breakdown of the LVs by age group? Are they using past statistics, or trying to 'discover' the data through the, as you say, inaccurate representation that they're getting from the younger crowd?

[GreenPoet64]

14. Interestingly they appear to be independents. . . Also good news . . .

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/041022/225424_1.html

This shows that Republicans are more likely to answer polling phone calls.

SOOOOOO the polls are likely skewed slightly in favor of Bush.

What amazes me is how the news reports polling results as if they are fact.