David Gergen Just Said that Kerry Could Win This Thing!!!

[DemocracyInaction]

I never watch Fox but in flipping channels saw they were going to interview David Gergen. Gergen (of the Kennedy School-Harvard) is always truthful and accurate regardless of who he's talking to and one of about 3 people I respect and trust in political analysis. If you have a minute, I'll tell you what he said this morning.

Some real "neverous Nellies" on Fox asked him if this is shaping up where Bush will win the popular vote and Kerry will win the Electoral votes.

Gergen said he thought all along that Bush would win this thing until the debates. He said the debates brought this into a tied race because people found assurance that Kerry would be fine in this "protecting" us realm. He said that the current polls that show this neck and neck are the ones reflecting "exactly" how it is.

He said the base has swelled for Bush in states from the deep South, through Texas, up through Oklahoma and Nebraska and up into North/South Dakota, etc. He said Bush has enormous leads there while Kerry is ahead in the important battleground Midwest states but only by several points. Thus, he points out that Kerry very likely will take these states but because of these red state leads by Bush not win the popular vote (that's what I was trying to say a few days ago about how these polls keep showing Bush with these nationwide leads).

He said it's basically the women's vote right now that's the big one. He said that is why the goose hunting trip----those women and those with loved ones in Iraq that may be trying to make up their minds will see this and look at Kerry in a different light. In other words, we really need to pick it up with the women in these states to nail the battleground states.

Anyway, one of the more interesting things to me was that these Fox whores seemed today to be resigned to a Kerry win through the EV but that the "good, great Bush" would win with the American people------tough shit, asswipes--Bush didn't get either last time and he governed like he had a 99% mandate!!!!

[annerevere]

1. Thanks for the report Demo!

I like Gergen too. It's good to hear a positive assessment from him.

[H2O Man]

2. he is always interesting,

obviously well-informed, very intelligent, and I think an honest man. I do not think that he respects George W. Bush. While, as you note, he may have thought Bush would be elected up until the debates, there is no evidence from his previous tv spots that he prefers Bush.

[fishwax]

3. I don't buy bush winning the popular vote, either

I think that's mostly pundits who are unhappy with the increasingly likely prospect that their boy is going down, but they still want to hold out some hope and generate some controversy. In 2000 there was a lot of speculation that bush would win the pop vote and lose the ec vote. But in the end it went the other way around.

Personally, I think it's much more likely that that scenario will repeat, and Kerry will win the popular vote (perhaps by a larger margin than Gore did) but lose the electoral vote do to razor thin margins and thousands of votes vanishing into thin air.

But the MOST likely scenario is that Kerry wins the popular vote and wins the electoral college.

[billyoc]

9. When Faux News is talking

about Bush winning the popular vote and Kerry winning in the electoral college, it's a sign that a Kerry landslide is in the works(to me). That's what I'm expecting, too. I just don't think Bush will carry as many states as the polls are claiming he will. I think a lot of southern states are going to abandon him after he hung a lot of their Reservists out to dry for Abu Ghraib, etc.

[DemocracyInaction]

10. No, I agree with Gergen that Bush is likely to win the popular vote

He was strong in those red areas before and now he is even stronger among these nuts. He is stronger in these blue states among the nuts, too. Remember Gore won by about 500,000 votes nationwide and he was the 'known name'. Now Bush is not only the 'known name' but the fundies have been increasing and pushing and we have this terror/war crap that is appealing to way too many people.

[fishwax]

15. For every poll that shows him stronger there is one that shows him weaker

Earlier this week a poll in GA showed the difference at 11 points. The spread was in the 30s back in May and June.

Here in Oklahoma, a poll came out recently that showed * up by more than 30. He's going to win OK, but I don't think he'll win it by 30+. He may be stronger among the nuts, but the nuts won't be the only ones who vote.

And why should we believe polls showing him shoring up his base in the south anymore than we should believe national polls that are shown to be skewed with an oversample of republicans and an undersample of minorities?

I'm not saying the scenario is impossible, just that I'm skeptible about the whole premise that bush will carry southern states by overwhelming margins.

[liberalmuse]

4. Bush will not win the popular vote...

unless Dems don't show up at the polls, and this doesn't seem to be the case so far.

[calico1]

12. I agree.

Yes, Bush has the vote among the nutcase rightwingers. But the reason why the electorally rich states like MI and PA are electorally rich is because of population. OK and NE just don't have the huge populations even though they are big States. So if there is a big voter turnout it means more votes overall for Kerry. I just don't see the Republicans as fired up as the Democrats, with the exception of the wingnuts.

[ksoze]

5. Caught it also....

Gergen is one of the few who make the cable rounds that does not appear partisan. He clearly was walking a line this morning, but did give the Faux crew reason to be concerned - as they should be.

[PCIntern]

6. Thanks for the excellent narrative

They're installing cable in my building next week - I hope it's in time for the aftermath of the win!

[spooky3]

7. I don't share your + view of Gergen; he headed the US News & World

Report, which was and is a right leaning mag., and is one of those privileged white guys who doesn't seem to have ever done any real work in his life yet people keep offering him high paying jobs.

[unfrigginreal]

8. Great report! Thanks

:thumbsup:

[JuniorPlankton]

11. I hate Gergen

I heard him speak once and he is an arrogant asshole.

[txindy]

13. B*sh will lose both the popular vote and the EC

His approval rating is at 44%, so unless there is massive voter fraud to skew the results, there is no way he can win the popular vote. Just MHO.

[AP]

14. Ugh. Can you see Bush losing EV, winning popular vote and then using that

as a mandate to sue for recounts all over the country? Oh man, if he tries harder than Gore tried to win this thing after losing EV, I'm going to be sick.

[DemocracyInaction]

16. AP---I read the other day (where I don't remember) that in every

state where the Kerry win is 2% or less, the republicans are going to go to court and challenge. They are going to go after all the provisional ballots, etc. I think the thing that would be funny as hell is if this happened in the states where they are fighting tooth and nail not to have paper trails on electronic voting. It's called "prove it, asshole"!!!!

[AP]

17. Then we'll find that Diebold has some secret back door accounting system

that proves that it's own actual count wasn't accurate.

Wrap your head around that inconsistency. Can you see CNN trying to sell that line of bullshit to the public?

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

18. WEll has anyone LOOKED at the population in blue states?

It seems to me the states where people actually LIVE want Kerry