Electoral Vote.com (interesting electoral map today)

[mzmolly]

http://electoral-vote.com

Kerry 264 Bush 264

hmmmmmmmmm.

[xray s]

1. that site is really worthless

Mixes polls, uses partisan polls.

The methodology sucks.

[mzmolly]

2. Still an interesting scenario. I did prefer the poll from a few days ago

which showed Kerry kicking Bush's ass however.

[RichardRay]

4. You're not paying attention

If you want 'infobites' it's not a good site. If you want to check it every day, watch the (consistently presented, consistently selected, consistently weighted) underlying polls you'll get a good idea of what's going on in several important states as well as how the polls are being used. If you do the work to understand what he's doing it's actually a very useful site. At least as useful as any polling is this year.

Richard Ray - Jackson Hole, WY

[yellowcanine]

3. And that is with Minnesota tied - Kerry will win Minnesota.

[demnan]

5. It changed already this morning

giving Kerry 301 electoral votes.

Really I think you have to take that site and average it over a few days to get an accurate picture, it changes too much.

[mzmolly]

6. I just thought it was an interesting scenario. I don't spend to much

time on the daily results. ;)

[lojasmo]

7. Check out the final projection

Based on regression formulas.

[mzmolly]

8. I really like that final projection.

:D

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

[Polemonium]

10. linear regression applied to a multiple regression problem

is a bit ridiculous. Polling is also a bit ridiculous. The only thing you should get out of polling is that since the first debate it is a close race. The Dems won't win Utah, and the rethugs won't win New York etc. But the rest, just ignore it. There is too much noise, sampling problems and questionable margins of error. No one could get a phd or a master's based on results reported for the swing states. So put your polling watch down, and GOTV. That is where we could make all this polling irrelevant (I know preaching to the choir).

[lojasmo]

11. Yup. I'll be GOTV. N/T

[prayin4rain]

9. Another one http://slate.msn.com/id/2108322/ also us winning.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2108322/